April 6-8: Blue Jays do the Texas Two Step (where it's nice and warm)

[So_Fresh]

If anyone is curious, the record for most at-bats without a hit in a single season is 36.

In case some of you didn't know Grichuk is 0 for his last 26 AB.

[metafisical]

Garcia has been a pleasant surprise so far.

The 'pen could really use a long man with all the short starts we've been getting.

6-4 to start the year. Can't complain about that.

I can complain. Why not 10-0? Pathetic.

[youreachiteach]

It's early, most starters won't go more than 6 for a little bit. We also had Stroman basically miss all of spring training. he'll get back at it soon. I'd like the Jays to call up Al Alburquerque --he looked great in the spring--and drop Axford.

[Skin Blues]

re: Grichuk

He's a classic example of when to ignore small sample size outcomes. He has a .474 xwOBA on contact (higher than Freddie Freeman and his 1291 OPS), which has yielded a .130 actual wOBA on contact. We have a very easy way to measure luck now based on the speed and trajectory of every single batted ball, and he's been extremely unlucky on the outcomes. Worse luck than any other hitter with at least 20 batted balls so far. K% and BB% are both pretty close to expectations, and if he changes nothing at all he should still be a 2+ WAR player fairly easily.

[Schad]

If we want to get super granular about it, though, his expected wOBA over his hitless streak is genuinely awful at .279. He was tagging pitches for the first couple games, and now he isn't, or at least he isn't tagging pitches at a rate that offsets the sheer number of times he makes no contact at all. He will unquestionably improve, but while he has been unlucky not to pick up some hits in that span, it's more of the "unlucky not to be putting up Dansby Swanson levels of offensive production" variety.

[Skin Blues]

If we want to get super granular about it, though, his expected wOBA over his hitless streak is genuinely awful at .279. He was tagging pitches for the first couple games, and now he isn't. He will unquestionably improve, but while he has been unlucky not to pick up some hits in that span, it's more of the "unlucky not to be putting up Dansby Swanson levels of offensive production" variety.

Thankfully, having a genuinely awful xwOBA over a cherry-picked sample of 6 games has zero predictive value. He's still been the unluckiest hitter this season by far, which I think is a relevant point. The only concern for me would be that he'll make a change in his approach that reduces his quality of contact.

[Schad]

Thankfully, having a genuinely awful xwOBA over a cherry-picked sample of 6 games has zero predictive value. He's still been the unluckiest hitter this season by far, which I think is a relevant point. The only concern for me would be that he'll make a change in his approach that reduces his quality of contact.

Point being, both of the below are perfectly reasonable opinions:

- Grichuk will probably be fine.
- Grichuk is a tire fire at the plate right now; that's not just luck.


I would dispute the notion that he's a virtual lock to be comfortably above 2 fWAR. I know that you generally place quite a bit of faith in the Steamer projections; they have him at a WAR/650 of 1.6, which is passable enough, but the sort of passable that you replace without a second thought.

[Skin Blues]

Thankfully, having a genuinely awful xwOBA over a cherry-picked sample of 6 games has zero predictive value. He's still been the unluckiest hitter this season by far, which I think is a relevant point. The only concern for me would be that he'll make a change in his approach that reduces his quality of contact.

Point being, both of the below are perfectly reasonable opinions:

- Grichuk will probably be fine.
- Grichuk is a tire fire at the plate right now; that's not just luck.


I would dispute the notion that he's a virtual lock to be comfortably above 2 fWAR. I know that you generally place quite a bit of faith in the Steamer projections; they have him at a WAR/650 of 1.6, which is passable enough, but the sort of passable that you replace without a second thought.

He's really not a tire fire, though. And it really is just luck. Objectively the worst luck of any hitter in baseball, so far.

It's interesting that you'd cherry-pick a 6 game sample from a season comprised of 10 games, thus far, in an attempt to paint a narrative. I wouldn't call that "perfectly reasonable" by any measure.

[Schad]

It's interesting that you'd cherry-pick a 6 game sample from a season comprised of 10 games, thus far, in an attempt to paint a narrative. I wouldn't call that "perfectly reasonable" by any measure.

You well, actually'd people complaining about his performance by pointing to a ten-game sample. I well, actually'd your statement to point to the seven-game sample that people are actually complaining about. I'm cherry-picking the games that are the subject of the discussion!

Again, Grichuk will likely be fine; he's a guy that has bad slumps, and he is particularly prone to them in the early months of the year. But his hitless streak isn't the result of a guy hammering the ball and getting unlucky; the very numbers to which you pointed indicate that you'd expect the outcomes of those PAs to be bad, if not .000/.074/.000 bad.

[vaff87]

Stanton and Grichuk seem to be having the exact same struggles, switching from the NL to the AL. Their contact percentage is way down, and their swinging strike percentage is way up.

Stanton’s swinging strike percentage has gone from 12.5% last year, to 18.2% this year. His contact percentage has gone from 70.4% to 59.4%.

Grichuk’s swinging strike percentage has gone from 13.6% last year, to 18.8% this year. His contact percentage has gone from 73.4% last year, to 62.5% this year.

Weirdly similar.

[BigLeagueChew]

Night off for Grichuk tonight, Pearce and Granderson starting vs Bundy.

[Skin Blues]

It's interesting that you'd cherry-pick a 6 game sample from a season comprised of 10 games, thus far, in an attempt to paint a narrative. I wouldn't call that "perfectly reasonable" by any measure.

You well, actually'd people complaining about his performance by pointing to a ten-game sample. I well, actually'd your statement to point to the seven-game sample that people are actually complaining about. I'm cherry-picking the games that are the subject of the discussion!

Again, Grichuk will likely be fine; he's a guy that has bad slumps, and he is particularly prone to them in the early months of the year. But his hitless streak isn't the result of a guy hammering the ball and getting unlucky; the very numbers to which you pointed indicate that you'd expect the outcomes of those PAs to be bad, if not .000/.074/.000 bad.

The difference is that batted ball data over a 10 game sample actually has meaning. Triple-slash has zero meaning since it is nothing more than an extension of BABIP, especially when you cherry-pick games and pare down a 10 game sample into 6. I expect more from somebody that should know better.

[Schad]

The difference is that batted ball data over a 10 game sample actually has meaning. Triple-slash has zero meaning since it is nothing more than an extension of BABIP, especially when you cherry-pick games and pare down a 10 game sample into 6. I expect more from somebody that should know better.

Not that it matters a tonne, but you keep saying 6 games. It's 7 games. 7 games is the length of his hitless streak, heh. A sample of 27 PAs out of his overall total of 38 PAs.

Again, absolutely not predictive for his season as a whole. Absolutely descriptive of his performance in that 27 PA sample.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The difference is that batted ball data over a 10 game sample actually has meaning. Triple-slash has zero meaning since it is nothing more than an extension of BABIP, especially when you cherry-pick games and pare down a 10 game sample into 6. I expect more from somebody that should know better.

You sure love to double and triple down on completely missing the point, I see.

[Skin Blues]

The difference is that batted ball data over a 10 game sample actually has meaning. Triple-slash has zero meaning since it is nothing more than an extension of BABIP, especially when you cherry-pick games and pare down a 10 game sample into 6. I expect more from somebody that should know better.

You sure love to double and triple down on completely missing the point, I see.

I'm interested in what matters, not meaningless talk-radio trivia. If we're going to discuss how bad Grichuk's batted-ball outcomes have been over the past 6, 7, or 10 games, then a counter-point about how unlucky he's been is relevant and interesting.

[Schad]

But that's the point! In those seven games his unluckiness has merely been the difference between being a tire fire and being entirely hitless, because he hasn't been making good contact with any sort of consistency.

That's the Randal Grichuk Experience in a nutshell: while his overall batted ball numbers will end up being fine, in all likelihood, he will have deep slumps in which he is not merely unlucky, but genuinely bad. By complete coincidence it happened at the exact same time last year: starting with their fourth game of the year, he had a two week long stretch (48 PAs) where he had a xwOBA of .257 and couldn't hit the ball with authority to save his life. Every hitter has slumps; few go through periods as profoundly useless as he, though the flip side is that when he's making good contact, he has stretches where he makes a lot of good contact.

That's the reason we were able to pick him up for a middle reliever and a B- prospect, and it's the reason he's been a below-average hitter for a corner outfielder over the past couple seasons. It's also the reason he will frustrate the hell out of a lot of fans, because when he's off, he's really off.

[JaysRule15]

Stanton and Grichuk seem to be having the exact same struggles, switching from the NL to the AL. Their contact percentage is way down, and their swinging strike percentage is way up.

Stanton’s swinging strike percentage has gone from 12.5% last year, to 18.2% this year. His contact percentage has gone from 70.4% to 59.4%.

Grichuk’s swinging strike percentage has gone from 13.6% last year, to 18.8% this year. His contact percentage has gone from 73.4% last year, to 62.5% this year.

Weirdly similar.

Statistical reasons aside, I wonder how much of it is because of a lack of familiarity with the pitchers in this league. Also, both guys are with new teams with big expectations on them. Could be that they're pressing a bit too much trying to make something happen. I'd give Grichuk the rest of April and at least half of May before I start getting concerned and thinking about calling up Teoscar.

[BigLeagueChew]

Ultimately it may come down to how many home runs Grichuk will hit. Projections have him anywhere from 23-31 home runs. Right now he's just not squaring up the ball enough. A line drive rate of %4.5 compared to his career %18.5. Alot of strikeouts and weak pop flies early on. Wait until he gets closer to 100 at bats to see if he normalizes. Am just going to think about the fact that someone or somewhere out there thinks he could 30 home runs for now.

[manjusaka]

defensively Grichuk is more than fine. but at the plate...

no sure what is the cause of his swing and miss problem, but having seeing him several at bat that he was ahead of the count, know the next pitch coming will be a strike, he will swing and missed. Can't remember which at bat,the pitcher just throw the exactly pitch again, Grichuk was just swing and missed again.

It is awfully to watch, but I am giving him some slack since he missed sometime in the spring training, maybe his condition is just in the spring training mode. He may need more time to get into midseason form.