April 19-22: Blue birds @ Bronx boo birds

[Tanner]

The end of the world? No. A significant missed opportunity? Absolutely.

My comment was based on how the Yankees finished during their transition years (2013-16). Finishing with 84 wins and not making the playoffs is not an ideal situation, but it did not stop them from moving forward, nor will it stop the Jays assuming the front office continues on the path that they have been on since they took over. Your response directly mentioned the team's lack of pitching depth which, as has been mentioned, can change pretty quickly.

There is a big difference between "wanting" 84 wins (which no one wants unless it leads to a playoff spot) and believing 84 wins will not be an obstacle to future success.

[Schad]

My comment was based on how the Yankees finished during their transition years (2013-16). Finishing with 84 wins and not making the playoffs is not an ideal situation, but it did not stop them from moving forward, nor will it stop the Jays assuming the front office continues on the path that they have been on since they took over. Your response directly mentioned the team's lack of pitching depth which, as has been mentioned, can change pretty quickly.

But, again, the Yankees also greatly impacted their prospect depth during those transitional years. They didn't let their desirable veterans expire; they moved them and added quite a bit of quality to their system, including one of the best prospects in baseball.

There is a big difference between "wanting" 84 wins (which no one wants unless it leads to a playoff spot) and believing 84 wins will not be an obstacle to future success.

It's absolutely an obstacle. Any time you turn down the opportunity to add assets, you are necessarily complicating your future prospects. The question is merely how large that obstacle will be, and whether our odds of making the divisional series are greater than the cost of said obstacle.

[Skin Blues]

Nobody wants us to finish with 84 wins. We might be projected to wins 84 but with variance, could make the playoffs.

This is the comment that precipitated this discussion:

This is not a year of serious contention, it's a transition into their next window. I'd say we are the 2014-15 Yankees right now. Waiting out the veteran contracts to end, and slowly transitioning younger talent year to year. Look at the Yankees lineup that made the wild card game in 2015. Only one starting position player was under the age of 30. Two years later the team that was a win away from the world series had young talent everywhere.

If the Jays make the wild card game this year, great. If they finish with 84 wins and miss out, that's not the end of the world either.

The end of the world? No. A significant missed opportunity? Absolutely.

And if we trade Donaldson and Happ and miss the playoffs by a few games, that's a missed opportunity. If we make the playoffs despite trading them, and get wiped out in round 1 because we're missing our best pitcher and best hitter, that's a missed opportunity. It goes both ways. It's like betting $20 on black for roulette and then when it comes up red, saying you missed your opportunity to use that $20 on blackjack instead.

[Schad]

And if we trade Donaldson and Happ and miss the playoffs by a few games, that's a missed opportunity. If we make the playoffs despite trading them, and get wiped out in round 1 because we're missing our best pitcher and best hitter, that's a missed opportunity. It goes both ways. It's like betting $20 on black for roulette and then when it comes up red, saying you missed your opportunity to use that $20 on blackjack instead.

Certainly. But making/missing the playoffs isn't a binary equation, either, if we're aiming to be in the running to win things. If we miss out on the Wild Card by a few games, that's weighted against the likelihood of actually advancing past the Wild Card, because (for me at least) the mere act of playing in the Wild Card game is not success in and of itself.

[Skin Blues]

And if we trade Donaldson and Happ and miss the playoffs by a few games, that's a missed opportunity. If we make the playoffs despite trading them, and get wiped out in round 1 because we're missing our best pitcher and best hitter, that's a missed opportunity. It goes both ways. It's like betting $20 on black for roulette and then when it comes up red, saying you missed your opportunity to use that $20 on blackjack instead.

Certainly. But making/missing the playoffs isn't a binary equation, either, if we're aiming to be in the running to win things. If we miss out on the Wild Card by a few games, that's weighted against the likelihood of actually advancing past the Wild Card, because (for me at least) the mere act of playing in the Wild Card game is not success in and of itself.

If you think we'll have a better chance at winning the division in 2 years when the Yankees are winning 100+ games, then I love your optimism!

We're projecting to be 5th in the AL this year. Maybe after finally making the playoffs a couple years ago some people forgot how long playoff droughts can last. I personally have very little interest in giving up on a season merely because we're not projected to win the division.

[Tanner]

But, again, the Yankees also greatly impacted their prospect depth during those transitional years. They didn't let their desirable veterans expire; they moved them and added quite a bit of quality to their system, including one of the best prospects in baseball.

You're neglecting that they only traded their desirable veterans after they were out of it in July 2016 (Chapman, Beltran, Miller). They didn't punt the entire season before it began. The Jays can do the exact same thing if they are out of it this summer.

The Yankees were very much in asset building mode (basically a mirror of this past off season by Shapiro) prior to that trade deadline.

It's absolutely an obstacle. Any time you turn down the opportunity to add assets, you are necessarily complicating your future prospects. The question is merely how large that obstacle will be, and whether our odds of making the divisional series are greater than the cost of said obstacle.

If they make the playoffs, then it's worth it, even if it's a WC game or an ALDS appearance. A true talent 85 win team can move up that ladder with luck, deadline moves, etc. If they don't, and they go with this group until the end of the season, then you take the comp pick for JD, and depending on which direction they are heading it, make subsequent moves to improve the assets on the roster.

No team is going to trade Torres types for a two month rental anymore. The Yankees got lucky (unfortunately). Teams are valuing prospects way too much now. Whether you traded JD three months ago or trade him three months from now, it's likely a marginal improvement to the Vlad/Bo teams anyway. As we have discussed before, there is no evidence that teams are trading prospects for short term vets anymore, and older free agents had trouble getting big league deals at all this winter.

I see no downside to following the Yankees model, as long as the emphasis on player development and building from within remains.

[Schad]

If you think we'll have a better chance at winning the division in 2 years when the Yankees are winning 100+ games, then I love your optimism!

We're projecting to be 5th in the AL this year. Maybe after finally making the playoffs a couple years ago some people forgot how long playoff droughts can last. I personally have very little interest in giving up on a season merely because we're not projected to win the division.

Two years? No. Three or four? Certainly, I like our odds better then. We're running into the teeth of an extremely strong headwind, because the AL is exceedingly top-heavy. Chasing down one projected-to-be-excellent Yankees team is an easier task than chasing them down and a Red Sox team projected to win 100+ themselves, given that their medium-term future has gotten Dombrowski'd to a not-insignificant degree.

If we were in the NL, this wouldn't even be a question. But when you're talking about a league with the four best teams in baseball, two of which are in your own division, the margins are impossibly fine.

[Skin Blues]

If you think we'll have a better chance at winning the division in 2 years when the Yankees are winning 100+ games, then I love your optimism!

We're projecting to be 5th in the AL this year. Maybe after finally making the playoffs a couple years ago some people forgot how long playoff droughts can last. I personally have very little interest in giving up on a season merely because we're not projected to win the division.

Two years? No. Three or four? Certainly, I like our odds better then. We're running into the teeth of an extremely strong headwind, because the AL is exceedingly top-heavy. Chasing down one projected-to-be-excellent Yankees team is an easier task than chasing them down and a Red Sox team projected to win 100+ themselves, given that their medium-term future has gotten Dombrowski'd to a not-insignificant degree.

If we were in the NL, this wouldn't even be a question. But when you're talking about a league with the four best teams in baseball, two of which are in your own division, the margins are impossibly fine.

That's one way of looking at it. Another is to say that when you're in a division with the Red Sox and Yankees who are hitting their stride as two of the best teams in baseball, and you are actually projected to make the playoffs because the other two divisions lack a serious WC contender, you don't squander that opportunity by planning ahead for 2020+.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree it's what's best for my own personal enjoyment. I might place more value on a playoff run in 2018 than you do. We may also disagree about how much future we have to mortgage in order to hold onto Happ and Donaldson. I think it's minimal, at this point. But you never know what offers will arise and I wouldn't rule out trading one of them entirely, especially if we can get a player that's close to MLB-ready.

[Schad]

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree it's what's best for my own personal enjoyment. I might place more value on a playoff run in 2018 than you do. We may also disagree about how much future we have to mortgage in order to hold onto Happ and Donaldson. I think it's minimal, at this point. But you never know what offers will arise and I wouldn't rule out trading one of them entirely, especially if we can get a player that's close to MLB-ready.

And I don't begrudge that; I fully understand wanting to watch good baseball over mediocre (or worse) baseball, even if I don't believe it to be the best long-term path. I'm on the other end of the spectrum; I have watched a lot of bad baseball over the years, and I'm not that fussed about watching a bit more if need be.

My feeling, though, is that one or two-year periods of being somewhat competitive or even very good doesn't do much to fix our biggest problem: the fact that we have a pretty small committed fanbase, in the grand scheme. We're already seeing that now; TV ratings tanked in the second half last year, and attendance is way down for a team with visions of making the playoffs. With neither the culture cachet of the Leafs nor the dedicated young fanbase of the Raptors, the Jays are either going to need to win a title or have a lengthy period of being title contenders, or we're going to continue to have a very fairweather following, and continuously be pulled hither and yon by our ownership.

My biggest fear is that we play out the year with a $165m payroll, never get quite close enough to excite the fanbase, and Rogers loses enough money to make them forget about the years when they made money hand over fist.