June 19-20: Atlanta Bravissimo vs Toronto Cosi Cosi

[Lateral Quicks]

Poor Danny Barnes. Always gets brought into early high leverage situations and is the emergency long man. His numbers would probably look a lot better if he was used as a one inning guy like he should. This team really needs a long man out of the pen - it's been an issue all year.

[zilby]

Just got back from this game. As someone who accepted from the very beginning the Jays were going to be terrible and that I wasn't planning on watching or spending any money on this team (the whole night cost $10, I really can't complain), this was a fun game to go to only because the Braves are such a fun team to watch. They rebuilt very nicely, Albies Freeman and Swanson are all terrific pieces, and even guys like Culberson and Camargo were great tonight.

Only reminded me how far away the Jays are from being a team like that, and how dumb it was for us to not start the rebuild last season, or this season. I've watched very little of them this year for good reason, and until guys like Vlad Jr., Bichette, Alford, etc. are up in September and I can maybe monitor their development, I can't bring myself to be interested in this group. Ownership did a very stupid thing trying to pretend like we were planning to win this year, and Shatkins did a poor job by keeping us in No Man's Land. $19 million for Morales and Garcia for a group that's known for their efficiency with dollars is heinous.

Conclusion: the Braves are very good, and we are very bad. Sigh.

[rotty]

Just got back from this game. As someone who accepted from the very beginning the Jays were going to be terrible and that I wasn't planning on watching or spending any money on this team (the whole night cost $10, I really can't complain), this was a fun game to go to only because the Braves are such a fun team to watch. They rebuilt very nicely, Albies Freeman and Swanson are all terrific pieces, and even guys like Culberson and Camargo were great tonight.

Only reminded me how far away the Jays are from being a team like that, and how dumb it was for us to not start the rebuild last season, or this season. I've watched very little of them this year for good reason, and until guys like Vlad Jr., Bichette, Alford, etc. are up in September and I can maybe monitor their development, I can't bring myself to be interested in this group. Ownership did a very stupid thing trying to pretend like we were planning to win this year, and Shatkins did a poor job by keeping us in No Man's Land. $19 million for Morales and Garcia for a group that's known for their efficiency with dollars is heinous.

Conclusion: the Braves are very good, and we are very bad. Sigh.

I cant wait for the kids to get called up whether its September or before. And also the trade deadline next month should be fun.

[Tanner]

Still can’t believe people think not rebuilding in the winter is somehow hurting the team now. Sure the return on JD might be dampened due to his injury but chances are the offers four months ago for him were not going to give us the impact talent needed anyway. Happ’s value might have actually increased, and everyone else has likely stayed the same. The one’s that truly hurt are Stroman and Osuna for different reasons but chances are they wouldn’t have been traded until next year at this time at the earliest, or two years from now depending on where the team is.

The Jays practically gave up nothing and got solid pieces (Solarte, Grichuk, Diaz, etc). Their selling last year at this time has given us the best hitter on the team to this point (Hernandez). They extended Smoak when no one wanted them to and he turned into great value. Not sure where the lack of trust in the front office comes from but it’s really misguided. Selling the vets in december rather than July wasn’t going to add Acuna type talent on this team. That’s just a pipe dream. Maybe if they traded Stroman in December but definitely not JD, Happ, etc.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Still can’t believe people think not rebuilding in the winter is somehow hurting the team now. Sure the return on JD might be dampened due to his injury but chances are the offers four months ago for him were not going to give us the impact talent needed anyway. Happ’s value might have actually increased, and everyone else has likely stayed the same. The one’s that truly hurt are Stroman and Osuna for different reasons but chances are they wouldn’t have been traded until next year at this time at the earliest, or two years from now depending on where the team is.

JD, Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez were the bulk of the value the team had in the offseason. Also, Pillar has been pretty good so far this season, but I suspect his value is slightly down at this point, too - it would take a team to come in with an out-of-the-blue valuation with him, which is possible for any given player at any given time, but not something to bank on. Guys like Tulo, Martin and Morales have largely stayed the same because they basically have no trade value at this point. Soooo.... Happ...

Can the Jays still rebuild? Sure. Teams can do that at any point they decide to. Would the Jays be in a significantly better rebuilding situation if they had moved some of those guys in the offseason? That's pretty hard to argue otherwise unless you're willing to stop at "because I say so." And really, the crux of the argument around who the team should trade in the offseason was Donaldson. Yeah, that hurt.

[Tanner]

Still can’t believe people think not rebuilding in the winter is somehow hurting the team now. Sure the return on JD might be dampened due to his injury but chances are the offers four months ago for him were not going to give us the impact talent needed anyway. Happ’s value might have actually increased, and everyone else has likely stayed the same. The one’s that truly hurt are Stroman and Osuna for different reasons but chances are they wouldn’t have been traded until next year at this time at the earliest, or two years from now depending on where the team is.

JD, Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez were the bulk of the value the team had in the offseason. Also, Pillar has been pretty good so far this season, but I suspect his value is slightly down at this point, too - it would take a team to come in with an out-of-the-blue valuation with him, which is possible for any given player at any given time, but not something to bank on. Guys like Tulo, Martin and Morales have largely stayed the same because they basically have no trade value at this point. Soooo.... Happ...

Can the Jays still rebuild? Sure. Teams can do that at any point they decide to. Would the Jays be in a significantly better rebuilding situation if they had moved some of those guys in the offseason? That's pretty hard to argue otherwise unless you're willing to stop at "because I say so." And really, the crux of the argument around who the team should trade in the offseason was Donaldson. Yeah, that hurt.

If the Jays wanted to rebuild then the players to move would have been Stroman and Osuna (and Sanchez once he started pitching again). Most likely the team would have gotten B/B- level prospects for JD, Happ, etc, a few months ago, and I think they could still get those types at the deadline. Obviously JD has to be healthy, otherwise they will have to keep him and qualify him. So yeah getting a comp pick versus getting a B level prospect might be a downgrade but I really don’t think it changes the impact of the team long term. What they get for Stro and Sanchez is far more likely to produce a game changer than JD. Years of control matters, as does age and positional demand.

[polo007]

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[I_Like_Dirt]

Getting one guy wrong? Sure, it can be recovered for. Right now, they've basically lost to varying degrees on every single one of their players with trade value outside of Happ. And Donaldson would have returned more than Happ in the offseason - I'm not so sure that's true just yet unless Donaldson comes back and starts playing like an MVP, which is far from a sure thing given he's going to have to play his way back into late season form.

One guy? It's boom or bust - could be nothing could be a big deal, but realistically sure, one guy. We're talking about one key guy in Donaldson who likely would have returned more than a single prospect (just one key one in particular) and several other players who would have done the same. I mean, it's pretty hard to suggest that the Jays aren't in a better position moving forward for having traded Liriano last season. You can argue that Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman wouldn't have gotten more, but you'd be wrong, even though more doesn't necessarily mean better when dealing with prospects. Could they trade those guys in the future? Sure. You're dreaming if you think they'll get the same thing. Donaldson needs pretty much everything to break right from here on out for him to regain his value. Osuna's value is shot. Stroman and Sanchez... have years left at least, as you say. Getting one wrong, sure. Getting 5 or 6 wrong... that hurts.

What the Jays did right this past offseason is they added players that might potentially have trade value at the deadline, or even later in terms of trades. I actually agree with a lot of those moves. They weren't all going to work out, but a rather high amount of them have. The key is that you don't want to hang on to players with value for too long unless you're trying to win or the offers are terrible because there are some severe risks, particularly when dealing with aging and/or injury-prone players, as the Jays are currently finding out. And I don't think that management was unaware - I think that was an ownership call. I don't think the Jays' ability to rebuild has been hamstrung by not making trades, but I do think they significantly hurt their chances at building a really good team in order to pretend like they were going to be good when they obviously weren't going to be, and it turns out that based on attendance not many people were actually fooled, either.

[Schad]

Yeah, while it might not be fatal, there's no question that we'll ultimately receive less for our veterans than if we had kicked this off at the trade deadline last year, as we ought to have. Twice we'll have gone for it, and twice we'll have been absolute non-factors in the playoff picture from mid-season (or earlier) on; it's hard to frame that as anything other than an error.

There's also absolutely no reason we couldn't have acquired those players while rebuilding, either.

[Tanner]

We don’t know what value the Jays lost by keeping JD because we can only speculate on what was being offered, but if you look around the the league, players with one year left on their deals were not fetching top prospects. Even Christian Yelich who has five years of cheap control left in his midn20’s got a pretty lukewarm trade given what he should have commanded.

Osuna was impossible to predict. He was still performing at a high level. Legal trouble is hard to predict. Happ’s value has increased. I’d say Estrada might be more desirable now than a year ago but still won’t fetch much. Tepera is at peak value if he’s really being shopped around. Pillar is what he is, just a matter of whether the team wants to trade him.

JD and Stroman both got hurt, and the latter still has two and a half years of control left so there’s time to recoup value. If JD is the only guy they missed out on then we are probably down a B prospect and a lotto ticket or two. Would have helped but not a huge difference if they want to build for 2020.

I still think a hot July/August and JD is movable either at the deadline or on waivers in August.

[Schad]

I'm sure Donaldson is movable. He just isn't movable for anything close to what he would have been a year ago.

And no, the Yelich deal was not lukewarm. The return featured the 13th-best prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline, another top 100 prospect, a guy who is the 4th-ranked 2B prospect (and in/around the top 100 depending on site), and an arm. Given that the Marlins were in rather a hurry to offload players, it wasn't a bad deal all told. Again, the equivalent of us trading Bichette and Alford or thereabouts.

And no, we aren't down "a B prospect and a lotto ticket" on him. The notion that Donaldson was only going to get us an FV 45/50 player and a couple low-minors fliers is and was completely illogical.

[So_Fresh]

I can't wait to move on from Pillar. He's been struggling as of late. 0-4 today. Great outing by Happ today!

Going to be a sad day when Happ is traded. Arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball. I hope he re-signs with us next season.

[Lateral Quicks]

Great start by Happ. Hopefully that ups the FO's hand when it comes to trading him.

[Tanner]

Which team would have traded a top 50 prospect for one year of JD at $23m? The Cardinals traded the worst of their top pitching prospects for two years of Ozuna at a fraction of what JD makes. Expecting them to trade Reyes or Flaherty or Weaver for JD was insane. You can’t use past markets to determine current value. Old(er) players who are expensive are not as valuable as top prospects in today’s market. Just look at the way FA’s were treated to see that.

Five years of Yelich was worth a lot more than what the Marlins got back. That’s almost as much control as the Marlins will get out of the best prospect they got in that deal and they’ll be lucky if he’s half as good.

[Schad]

Which team would have traded a top 50 prospect for one year of JD at $23m? The Cardinals traded the worst of their top pitching prospects for two years of Ozuna at a fraction of what JD makes. Expecting them to trade Reyes or Flaherty or Weaver for JD was insane. You can’t use past markets to determine current value. Old(er) players who are expensive are not as valuable as top prospects in today’s market. Just look at the way FA’s were treated to see that.

Five years of Yelich was worth a lot more than what the Marlins got back. That’s almost as much control as the Marlins will get out of the best prospect they got in that deal and they’ll be lucky if he’s half as good.

The Marlins were also shedding payroll at a frantic rate because their new ownership is leveraged to the point of absurdity. We wouldn't have been bargaining from the same position in the summer of 2017.

And look at what you're arguing here. The Cards traded a top 100, FV 55 prospect for two years of a player who has had just one good season, came with a lot of indicators that he would regress, and who reaches free agency in two years. Yeah, he's cheaper, but the gulf in likely quality between Ozuna and Donaldson at this point last year is significant. They also got three other prospects, two of which would qualify as the sort of B prospects you seem to believe are all that Donaldson would return.

Beyond that, let's assume that, for god only knows what reason, Donaldson would've only gotten a couple middling prospects. What have we gained by keeping him? Not a damned thing! We aren't a sleeping giant. We aren't a team that was thiiiiiis close. We were really bad last year, and we're really bad this year, and nothing short of absolutely pristine health and top-level performance from virtually the whole of the team would have us anywhere near the Wild Card this season. It was a bad plan, and it was a bad plan because it was one that was utterly divorced from baseball reasons.

[Tanner]

Alcantara and Sierra were rated as B- prospects before the season by Sickels, and both are boom or bust flawed prospects. If the Jays got that return, I would have kept JD too and seen if 2018 was a year we could steal the 2nd WC. You can get those types of prospects at the deadline too.

As far as JD versus Ozuna, there is a difference of $14m this year and about five years of age. One extra year of control also comes with heightened value. Why would the Cards give up one of their top prospects for JD when that was the alternative? He was coming off a 5 war season and on his way to a 3 war this year at the rate he’s going, and he will likely earn less in both years (2018–9) than JD in 2018 alone.

JD is 32 with one year of control left. In today’s MLB that comes with less value. Name one trade that involved a top prospect in the last year plus? For Yelich and I’m drawing a blank after that.

The Jays can trade Happ and JD if he’s healthy and get B- level talent back in a month. The rebuild has not be compromised. The time to trade JD was after 2016 but no way the front office would have been allowed to do that. Now you deal with the diminishing returns.

[Schad]

Alcantara and Sierra were rated as B- prospects before the season by Sickels, and both are boom or bust flawed prospects. If the Jays got that return, I would have kept JD too and seen if 2018 was a year we could steal the 2nd WC. You can get those types of prospects at the deadline too.

Alcantara was actually rated as a B prospect by Sickels, more highly-regarded elsewhere. MLB Pipeline has him in the top 100, Fangraphs in top 100 consideration before the year.

As far as JD versus Ozuna, there is a difference of $14m this year and about five years of age. One extra year of control also comes with heightened value. Why would the Cards give up one of their top prospects for JD when that was the alternative? He was coming off a 5 war season and on his way to a 3 war this year at the rate he’s going, and he will likely earn less in both years (2018–9) than JD in 2018 alone.

The difference in salary is worth about 1.5 WAR. The difference in quality as of last year exceeded 1.5 WAR. No one in their right mind would have evaluated Ozuna as a player likely to achieve 5 WAR again based on his peripherals, and the return reflected that.

JD is 32 with one year of control left. In today’s MLB that comes with less value. Name one trade that involved a top prospect in the last year plus? For Yelich and I’m drawing a blank after that.

Off the top of my head, Eloy Jimenez and Franklin Perez.

The Jays can trade Happ and JD if he’s healthy and get B- level talent back in a month. The rebuild has not be compromised. The time to trade JD was after 2016 but no way the front office would have been allowed to do that. Now you deal with the diminishing returns.

Yeah, they can get B- talent in a month. It's just insane that you genuinely believe that a year and a half of either of them would have returned nothing more than B- talent.

[vaff87]

Great start by Happ. Hopefully that ups the FO's hand when it comes to trading him.

I was angry Gibby left him in too long and hurt his ERA.

[Tanner]

Alcantara was actually rated as a B prospect by Sickels, more highly-regarded elsewhere. MLB Pipeline has him in the top 100, Fangraphs in top 100 consideration before the year.

He was a B/B-, and Sickels implied that he was being kind with that grade. Alcantara is a good prospect, but that’s all he is. If you would rather have him than a chance at a wild card, then you are either overrating him or placing too much value on getting something/anything in return for JD.

The difference in salary is worth about 1.5 WAR. The difference in quality as of last year exceeded 1.5 WAR. No one in their right mind would have evaluated Ozuna as a player likely to achieve 5 WAR again based on his peripherals, and the return reflected that.

So the Cardinals would increase payroll by $14m, lose six years of team control on much better prospects, get a 32 year old player who plays the same position as two guys already on their roster (Gyorko/Carpenter), and get one less year of control out of it?

Fangraphs is not a GM.

Off the top of my head, Eloy Jimenez and Franklin Perez.

So for 3.5 years of Quintana and 2.5 years of Verlander. Plus, 5 years of Yelich.

There’s a trend there.

Yeah, they can get B- talent in a month. It's just insane that you genuinely believe that a year and a half of either of them would have returned nothing more than B- talent.

I’m talking about in the past off season, not last trade deadline.