August 7-9: Boston@ Toronto - When does a Boston series go well. In any sport?

[Schad]

Most fastball/slider guys that throw that kind of heat and pump 4-seamers up in the zone to get whiffs have high hard-contact rates anyway. His is really not that bad in context, although when he was at his peak it was a lower (closer to 30% rather than the current 37%). His BABIP, though, has gone from .309 for his career to .382 this season (.556 since the trade, along with a 50% HR/FB - facing the heart of the lineup, twice apiece, against two of the top teams in the league will do that). So while the increased hard contact rate might not be bad luck, the results of those batted balls (and the batters he's been put up against since we got him) have most certainly been bad luck. The optics of it, though, are obviously bad, even if they're inconsequential. Acquire a guy, he's not immediately a superstar he was expected to be, and people freak out that the FO has no idea what they're doing. It's Grichuk all over again.

He certainly isn't a 6+ ERA pitcher. However, it's not largely bad luck; he has gone from a .270 xwOBA from 2015-2017 to a .345 mark this season. His slider isn't the same, and one could infer that the lack of movement on the slider has made it easier for hitters to punch both the slider and fastball.

[Skin Blues]

Most fastball/slider guys that throw that kind of heat and pump 4-seamers up in the zone to get whiffs have high hard-contact rates anyway. His is really not that bad in context, although when he was at his peak it was a lower (closer to 30% rather than the current 37%). His BABIP, though, has gone from .309 for his career to .382 this season (.556 since the trade, along with a 50% HR/FB - facing the heart of the lineup, twice apiece, against two of the top teams in the league will do that). So while the increased hard contact rate might not be bad luck, the results of those batted balls (and the batters he's been put up against since we got him) have most certainly been bad luck. The optics of it, though, are obviously bad, even if they're inconsequential. Acquire a guy, he's not immediately a superstar he was expected to be, and people freak out that the FO has no idea what they're doing. It's Grichuk all over again.

He certainly isn't a 6+ ERA pitcher. However, it's not largely bad luck; he has gone from a .270 xwOBA from 2015-2017 to a .345 mark this season. His slider isn't the same, and one could infer that the lack of movement on the slider has made it easier for hitters to punch both the slider and fastball.

Just as BABIP fluctuates wildly, so does xwOBA. Especially for pitchers, and especially in small samples where the guys you've faced are not a representative sample of the average AL hitter.

As for his slider, it was really only a couple games in July that he had a major issue. Literally 11 pitches. Since the start of July he has a 30% K-rate, 3% BB-rate. These are the things that matter. The 6.3 HR/9 and .535 BABIP are all anybody sees though. And the slider has been more or less the same as ever since we got him in terms of velo, movement, and whiffs. The concern is way overblown, due to the BABIP outcomes. This is the standard reaction; a guy struggles briefly and everybody panics over some minor fluctuations in their underlying performance that otherwise would not be a concern. Ken Giles has a .382 BABIP allowed, therefore the temporary drop in horizontal slider movement is a huge concern. If it was a .282 BABIP nobody would even notice or care these little blips.

[Schad]

Going to need some indication that Giles has suffered owing to atypically strong competition. His game log certainly doesn't suggest it.

[So_Fresh]

stadium was less than half empty.. pretty sad state the Jays are in. better hope Vladdy, and their upcoming young players pan out and are ready for next season.

[C Court]

I was at the game and enjoyed being at the ballpark, even though there was a very muted baseball vibe. Marco was throwing strikes early, but then the Rays started hitting them at will.

Most entertaining part of the game was the German and French tourists sitting near us who were trying to figure out what the f*** was going on. Baseball is super confusing to Europeans. The girls behind us spent the night debating the merits of the Jays’ walk-up songs. That’s what it’s like at Rogers Centre in August when the Jays suck.