Moderator: JaysRule15
Tanner wrote:I'm ok with Roark and Anderson, but I agree that the next SP acquisition has to be a significant step above league average. So either Ryu, Keuchel, or just roll with internal options.
SAN DIEGO — Ross Atkins won’t be flying home Thursday empty-handed after all.
Quiet on the first two days of the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings inside the Manchester Grand Hyatt on the shores of the Pacific Coast in San Diego, the Blue Jays struck Wednesday by agreeing to terms with right-handed starter Tanner Roark, according to a source.
The deal is a two-year pact worth a total of $24 million, and will be made official once the 33-year-old passes a physical.
Roark isn’t Gerrit Cole, who the New York Yankees reeled in late Tuesday night with a monster deal that will pay him $324 million over the next nine years, but he’s a clear rotation upgrade for Atkins & Co., giving the Jays a reliable mid-rotation starter with a history of staying healthy and taking the ball every fifth day.
With the ink on the contract still drying and not yet official, Atkins declined to comment on Roark specifically Wednesday, but there’s no doubt durability and reliability is the draw here.
“It’s not that we went into this free-agent season or off-season thinking we have to get guys that have only been durable, but that is a very important piece to the equation in almost every starting pitcher category,” Atkins said. “Starting pitchers who are dependable, reliable, who also get very high strikeout rates and don’t walk guys and keep the ball in the ballpark end up getting the type of contract that you see at the very, very top of the market. They are rare, guys who do all of those things.”
The latter are the Cole types. Roark at least has the dependability part down pat.
No, the Roark signing isn’t going to satisfy Blue Jays fans clamouring for massive improvement — nor should it, not even close — but they’re a better team today than they were yesterday, and that’s at least a start.
It’s not a sexy one, though.
Roark’s overall body of work across seven big-league seasons — the majority of it coming with the Washington Nationals — is solid enough, as the Illinois native and 25th-round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2008 holds a career 3.71 ERA.
In 2014 and 2016, Roark was terrific, out-pitching his peripherals and registering ERAs of 2.85 and 2.83, respectively, to post matching seasons of 3.3 fWAR.
That’s a really good ceiling for the modest price, but Roark has authored ERAs over 4.24 in four of the last five seasons, and that range should be the realistic projection moving forward.
With a career high of 210 innings (2016), the burly righty has also made 30-plus starts in five of the last six campaigns, making him by far the most reliable arm on the current Blue Jays staff.
Lateral Quicks wrote:That's a fair amount for a guy as mediocre as Roark who's entering his age 34 season. Hopefully he pitches well enough to be tradable if one of the young guys pushes him out.
Duffman100 wrote:Lateral Quicks wrote:That's a fair amount for a guy as mediocre as Roark who's entering his age 34 season. Hopefully he pitches well enough to be tradable if one of the young guys pushes him out.
Sure, but what else are we spending our money on?
Wo1verine wrote:Steamer projecting Roark for a 5.16 ERA.
Who knows what happens in the end but chances are this signing isn't going to end up being very good.
They could have used Anderson and Roarks money and put it towards a better pitcher.
Skin Blues wrote:They're projecting him for 1.72 HR/9 which is kind of insane. Not only is it well above anything he's ever allowed, but even since the new Rabbit Ball the past two seasons only 3 qualified pitchers have done that. To say that's his mean expectation, and that half of the theoretical outcomes will be worse than that, is crazy. He's not gonna be great, but something seems wonky in the formula.
Schad wrote:Skin Blues wrote:They're projecting him for 1.72 HR/9 which is kind of insane. Not only is it well above anything he's ever allowed, but even since the new Rabbit Ball the past two seasons only 3 qualified pitchers have done that. To say that's his mean expectation, and that half of the theoretical outcomes will be worse than that, is crazy. He's not gonna be great, but something seems wonky in the formula.
Particularly when they have his GB% normalizing over last year's career low. I'm not going to do the math on what he'd need for a HR/FB rate to achieve that, but I'm guessing the answer is "most".