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2019-20 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#601 » by Schad » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:02 pm

I doubt it's that quickly. It's going to ultimately look more like a waveform than a single peak...we'll relax restrictions a bit at a time (in maybe a month, maybe more) once we have enough resources on-line, and that will lead to another peak, and if that looks like it might break containment, the restrictions will be reintroduced. That pattern will probably continue for a fair while.

Max lag time might be 7 days, but that's not the max amount of time to be symptomatic, especially with younger individuals. I'd imagine that a fair number of those currently on quarantine will present with symptoms and the numbers will climb again. Hopefully, it'll be temporary.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#602 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:09 pm

Perhaps a look at the city level would give people a different perspective.

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Italy is still trying to get people to stay at home on day 25.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#603 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:11 pm

Perhaps a look at overall deaths at the city level would give people a different perspective.

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Italy is still trying to get people to stay at home on day 25. New York will need help.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#604 » by Schad » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:15 pm

And to put in perspective what those graphs mean in practical terms: Madrid has already vastly exceeded their mortuary capacity. They are using a large ice skating rink as a morgue for the time being, though with the understanding that it will fill up quickly and they will need to find other places to store bodies in pretty short order.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#605 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:22 pm

Schad wrote:And to put in perspective what those graphs mean in practical terms: Madrid has already vastly exceeded their mortuary capacity. They are using a large ice skating rink as a morgue for the time being, though with the understanding that it will fill up quickly and they will need to find other places to store bodies in pretty short order.


Yeah we cannot build something like that in a week like china did. I kind of wonder why they can't* contain things at a state or provincial level then allow people in afterwards to help them(doctors or setup volunteers and so on)
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#606 » by Tanner » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:08 am

Trump is targeting Easter to ease the restrictions. If that holds up then baseball in mid May is doable (3-4 weeks for spring training). That seems aggressive though and a lot would have to go right.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#607 » by Schad » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:03 am

It's not aggressive, it's laughable. There's absolutely no chance of this being under control by Easter. There's absolutely no chance of us even approaching an inflection point by Easter with the strictest possible measures in place tomorrow. He picked a date because it seemed like a good idea at the time to him, and now he's committing to it, because he doesn't know how anything works.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#608 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:40 pm

The key to effective social distancing, though, is timing.

“I think the critical lesson from both the modeling and the historical work is that the benefits of multiple interventions are greatest if they are introduced early (before 1% of the population is infected) and maintained,” wrote Hatchett, who has also directed medical preparedness in the Obama White House. Distancing measures are less effective once more people have contracted the virus, especially in cases where the vast majority of people are not sick enough to need medical attention.


https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

---

Another point worth emphasizing from the research: Social distancing practices have to be sustained. As obstructive as it is that we might need to do some social distancing for months, that really might be what’s necessary to save as many lives as possible.


Markel’s study demonstrates this: As the pandemic appeared to subside, St. Louis pulled back its social distancing measures. But it turned out that the pullback was premature — and flu deaths started to rise once again. This graph shows that, with the line chart tracking flu deaths over time and the black and gray bars below showing when key social distancing measures were in place:


Image

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

*Not showing the graph to display how long it might take us, since it's a different virus and numbers involved. It also takes sustained effort after the inflection point and not too early.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#609 » by The_Hater » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:06 pm

Tanner wrote:Trump is targeting Easter to ease the restrictions. If that holds up then baseball in mid May is doable (3-4 weeks for spring training). That seems aggressive though and a lot would have to go right.


It’s not realistic imo. Individual states will all have different restrictions, not to mention Ontario, and MLB isn’t going to listen to trump and put fans at risk either.

The pandemic itself will be the determining factor, not a crazy president who is ignoring most of the advice from the professionals.

If anything, Trump’s actions here are going to delay the return of sports by months because the pandemic is going to grown exponentially
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