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General Blue Jays Thread, 2020

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#341 » by Michael Bradley » Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:24 pm

Springer would definitely need to move to RF at some point during a 4-5 year deal. I think if he could play CF for a year or two before giving way to Martin (assuming he can handle CF) or someone else the Jays develop/acquire, then it wouldn't be the worst outcome. The bat is still very good, and outfield (CF or otherwise) is a huge weakness in this organization from top to bottom. If the deal is 5 years, then there is definite risk of dead money towards the end of it, but that's the price of free agency most of the time. Russell Martin provided surplus value throughout the course of his contract, and he fell off towards the end as well. There's really no way to avoid that sort of decline on free agent deals, especially with older free agents. That's why I'm on board with LeMathieu because someone who hits the ball hard and doesn't strike out might be less likely to fall off a cliff.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#342 » by Schad » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:17 pm

Martin's an example of what that sort of deal often looks like, definitely. He provided enough up-front that the deal wasn't bad overall (we got 11.2 fWAR for $78.4m, which is a shade better than fair-market), but the final two years involved us paying him a total of $36.4m to put up 1.2 fWAR as a Jay (including the $16.4m paid to the Dodgers to take him off our hands).

And that's mostly fine if you think that you'll be good in the first 2-3 years and not so much thereafter, but we're more likely to be better in years 3-5 than 1-2, all things considered.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#343 » by The_Hater » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:51 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:Springer would definitely need to move to RF at some point during a 4-5 year deal. I think if he could play CF for a year or two before giving way to Martin (assuming he can handle CF) or someone else the Jays develop/acquire, then it wouldn't be the worst outcome. The bat is still very good, and outfield (CF or otherwise) is a huge weakness in this organization from top to bottom. If the deal is 5 years, then there is definite risk of dead money towards the end of it, but that's the price of free agency most of the time. Russell Martin provided surplus value throughout the course of his contract, and he fell off towards the end as well. There's really no way to avoid that sort of decline on free agent deals, especially with older free agents. That's why I'm on board with LeMathieu because someone who hits the ball hard and doesn't strike out might be less likely to fall off a cliff.


Plus they could literally move LeMathieu all over the diamond, wherever they end up needing him, during his contract.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#344 » by polo007 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:00 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#345 » by polo007 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:13 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#346 » by polo007 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:23 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#347 » by TR50 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:14 am

The Score App says DJ prefers NY and has the Yankees as his first choice, Mets as his second. Jays in the mix but at a geographic disadvantage.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#348 » by The_Hater » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:46 pm

TR50 wrote:The Score App says DJ prefers NY and has the Yankees as his first choice, Mets as his second. Jays in the mix but at a geographic disadvantage.


I believe he also said he wants a 5 year deal and Yanks won’t do that. So we still have a shot hopefully.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#349 » by TR50 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:47 pm

The_Hater wrote:
TR50 wrote:The Score App says DJ prefers NY and has the Yankees as his first choice, Mets as his second. Jays in the mix but at a geographic disadvantage.


I believe he also said he wants a 5 year deal and Yanks won’t do that. So we still have a shot hopefully.


I read that as well, and that the Yankees are willing to go to 4 years.

It sounds to me that we will have to outbid the Yankees/Mets on a 4 year deal. Or offer a 5th. I'm not sure that is such a good idea?
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#350 » by Schad » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:13 pm

Five years is probably where you draw the line. You're already baking in a decline at the back end, a 5th season (his age 36/37) at full AAV is probably fairly pretty close to dead money.

In that instance, maybe you roll the dice on Ha-Seong Kim and reallocate money toward the rotation, or go the safe-and-cheap-upgrade route with Wong.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#351 » by Michael Bradley » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:17 pm

I don't think any team, the Jays/Yanks/Mets, is giving him five years. Whoever overpays him on a 4 year deal probably gets him, and I'm sure he'll give a discount to the Yankees if the money is close enough. Basically, that MLBTR prediction, which was likely too low to begin with, is probably going to look really bad if the Jays were to sign him.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#352 » by The_Hater » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:40 pm

TR50 wrote:
The_Hater wrote:
TR50 wrote:The Score App says DJ prefers NY and has the Yankees as his first choice, Mets as his second. Jays in the mix but at a geographic disadvantage.


I believe he also said he wants a 5 year deal and Yanks won’t do that. So we still have a shot hopefully.


I read that as well, and that the Yankees are willing to go to 4 years.

It sounds to me that we will have to outbid the Yankees/Mets on a 4 year deal. Or offer a 5th. I'm not sure that is such a good idea?


I like DJ at 5 years better than Springer, the dollar value of the last couple of years will be much lower and he will still have some defensive versatility. But ya, outbidding them on 4 years is likely smarter.
AthensBucks wrote:Lowry is done.
Nurse is below average at best.
Masai is overrated.
I dont get how so many people believe in the raptors,they have zero to chance to win it all.


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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#353 » by polo007 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:32 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#354 » by polo007 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:32 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#355 » by polo007 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:12 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#356 » by polo007 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:42 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#357 » by polo007 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:38 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#358 » by polo007 » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:51 am

Rosenthal: Reds open to trading Sonny Gray; possible suitors for DJ LeMahieu - The Athletic

Gausman: An early Blue Jays target

Not that it’s needed, but here’s more evidence the Blue Jays are among the most active clubs this offseason. According to sources, they offered free-agent right-hander Kevin Gausman a three-year deal, believed to be in the $40 million range, before the pitcher accepted the Giants’ one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer.

Gausman, 29, took a calculated gamble, figuring that if he pitches well, he will exceed the $20 million or so he sacrificed by rejecting the Jays’ proposal.
His choice seems reasonable enough, considering his previous experience as a free agent. In 2019, Gausman produced a 5.72 ERA for the Braves and Reds, yet the Giants rewarded him with a one-year, $9 million contract.

A player can receive a qualifying offer only once, so Gausman will not be tied to draft-pick compensation if he hits the open market again next offseason (and such compensation still exists under a new collective-bargaining agreement). Perhaps he will sign a multi-year contract with the Giants before then. Or perhaps he would prefer to take a deeper dive into free agency, and join another team close to his native Colorado.

The Jays, meanwhile, continue to pursue free agents at a breakneck pace. They are interested not only in outfielder George Springer and infielder DJ LeMahieu, but also have been in recent contact with outfielder Michael Brantley and third baseman Justin Turner, among others, sources say.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#359 » by The_Hater » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:36 am

Thanks for all the posts Polo.

Well it looks like the Jays will definitely sign some big free agents, we just don’t know who yet. Such a different market than the NBA where most of the big names get signed without 24 hours of free agency opening. The MLB process seems to get slower every passing year.
AthensBucks wrote:Lowry is done.
Nurse is below average at best.
Masai is overrated.
I dont get how so many people believe in the raptors,they have zero to chance to win it all.


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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#360 » by Michael Bradley » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:34 am

Baseball winters are usually slow, even the busier ones can feel like they take an eternity, but this one in particular is a mix of Covid related revenue drops impacting the way teams spend money combined with what figures to be a ridiculous amount of non-tenders about to flood the market at once. My guess is activity will pick up after the non-tender deadline, which I believe is a week or so from now.

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