Jays (63-54) @ Nationals (50-68), Aug 17-18

[Schad]

The Rays pick up most of their BP guys every year off the scrap heap as well. They just seem to be exceptionally good at finding guys who do stick.

The Rays are just otherworldly at identifying undervalued talent in general, and particularly with their 'pen. It's clear that they have the ability to find those guys consistently, which in theory suggests that other teams ought to be able to do so, but as the other 29 teams cannot I'm content to chalk it up with an alliance with Satan.

[rarefind]

Yep, no doubt. Whitlock as a rule 5 from the Yankees is something you cannot make up.

My general impression of our bp in the winter/spring was the only guys I trusted (if absolutely healthy) to win games for us was Yates, Romano, Doils and Merryweather (if he could somehow have not been made of glass). If Yates and Merryweather were healthy we may be singing another song now but at the same time we can't feign being incredibly surprised that guys susceptible to getting hurt, got hurt. Chatwood and Phelps were going to be surprises if good/healthy IMO and I certainly didn't expect much of Mayza (who has opened some eyes) or Borucki.

I would however certainly imagine that our bullpen will be better next year. I didn't especially think we were ready to compete for a playoff position this year so the impetus of outfitting a lockdown bullpen was not overly significant.

[s e n s i]

if polo doesn't make the series thread then just fold the **** franchise

[bluerap23]

I just don't see how this bp was regarded as being in a position to succeed this year. I called it before the start of the year and so did many others. Our bp had more question marks than answers... and I am saying that knowing how incredibly fickle bullpens are. Half the guys you listed had very recent red flags with their arms to your point. Those guys you gamble on... not build our bp around. A few others we were betting on them bouncing back and they didn't.

Again, though, that's just a bullpen. Here's the appearance leaders for the Red Sox:

Matt Barnes - Serious control issues in 2020, bad overall results.
Adam Ottavino - The Yankees literally gave the Red Sox a prospect to get rid of him after a disastrous 2020.
Hiro Sawamura - Japanese reliever with no MLB experience who signed for pennies.
Darwinzon Hernandez - Young relief prospect with massive control issues who hadn't been able to stick.
Garrett Whitlock - Rule 5 draftee.
Josh Taylor - 28 year old who had a few awful innings in 2020, less than 55 IP in the majors career.


Their bullpen is 8th in the majors in FIP. Bullpens are bad sorcery.

Yes many teams rely on luck in the bp. And some get lucky, some get unlucky. Other teams actually spend money on it and have a more reliable pen. There are relievers in MLB with consistent track records, they just cost more.

[Schad]

Yes many teams rely on luck in the bp. And some get lucky, some get unlucky. Other teams actually spend money on it and have a more reliable pen. There are relievers in MLB with consistent track records, they just cost more.

And then there are a lot of relievers who have consistent track records until they don't. Colorado, for years, spent money on consistent relievers. Tens and tens of millions. They got nothing for it, because you can only say which relievers are consistent and which ones aren't in retrospect.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-team-that-went-up-a-hill-but-fell-down-a-mountain/