Toronto Blue Jays (85-67) @ Minnesota Twins (67-85)

[I_Like_Dirt]

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

Knowing what you know about analytics, explain to me what analytics suggest that you should use McGuire over Kirk. Or Valera over literally anyone. Please.

I'd like to posit a different theory: our lineup is set by Xyglorp, an iridescent, intergalactic spacefaring cabbage from the Horsehead Nebula. This may seem like a crazy theory, but bear with me for a moment. What seems more likely: that a bunch of people whose job it is to know how numbers work continually force the manager to make utterly innumerate decisions, or that Montoyo has invested his trust and management decisions in an shimmering side-dish capable of traveling in excess of the speed of light?

Because I have just as much proof that Xyglorp holds the reins as you do that our analytics guys are forcing his hand, but it's much honestly more plausible that a space cabbage -- which might not know baseball all that well -- is doing such stupid ****, versus guys whose careers revolve around knowing how matchups work consistently favouring matchups which make no earthly sense.

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest there are analytics that we don't know about that teams follow. It doesn't mean they're always right about things but the idea that anyone here has an understanding of the analytics the team actually uses doesn't strike me as one that has any real merit.

[Schad]

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest there are analytics that we don't know about that teams follow. It doesn't mean they're always right about things but the idea that anyone here has an understanding of the analytics the team actually uses doesn't strike me as one that has any real merit.

I don't think it's particularly complicated. There is no mysterious analytical tool that suggests that pinch-hitting Breyvic Valera, who grades out as one of the worst hitters in baseball, in crucial situations is a smart move. Yet it's something Charlie has done. There's no unknown dataset that suggests giving a bunch of playing time to McGuire, who is one of our worst hitters by wxOBA, at the expense of Kirk, which is one of our best hitters by wxOBA. Yet Charlie does it frequently. And there's very much no secret number that justified using our worst relievers (Thornton and Dolis) by advanced metrics in high-leverage while using our second-best reliever (Cimber) in blowouts. But Charlie did that repeatedly.

If the Jays have an analytics team that is making these decisions, the problem is that they know not even the first thing about analytics, as evidenced by how starkly the decisions the Jays make deviate from the teams that are actually known to integrate their analytics and on-field decision-making, like the Rays. What's more likely: that this is the case, or that Charlie Montoyo is just a bad manager? Note that no one in the organization has ever suggested that anyone but Montoyo sets the lineups, and indeed there are few teams where that's the case.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest there are analytics that we don't know about that teams follow. It doesn't mean they're always right about things but the idea that anyone here has an understanding of the analytics the team actually uses doesn't strike me as one that has any real merit.

I don't think it's particularly complicated. There is no mysterious analytical tool that suggests that pinch-hitting Breyvic Valera, who grades out as one of the worst hitters in baseball, in crucial situations is a smart move. Yet it's something Charlie has done. There's no unknown dataset that suggests giving a bunch of playing time to McGuire, who is one of our worst hitters by wxOBA, at the expense of Kirk, which is one of our best hitters by wxOBA. Yet Charlie does it frequently. And there's very much no secret number that justified using our worst relievers (Thornton and Dolis) by advanced metrics in high-leverage while using our second-best reliever (Cimber) in blowouts. But Charlie did that repeatedly.

If the Jays have an analytics team that is making these decisions, the problem is that they know not even the first thing about analytics, as evidenced by how starkly the decisions the Jays make deviate from the teams that are actually known to integrate their analytics and on-field decision-making, like the Rays. What's more likely: that this is the case, or that Charlie Montoyo is just a bad manager? Note that no one in the organization has ever suggested that anyone but Montoyo sets the lineups, and indeed there are few teams where that's the case.

I mean, there are a couple possibilities here. One is that the Jays are absolutely brilliant and go along with the analytics you know but have a complete blind spot for the manager who undermines them at every turn and let it continue non-stop despite it being super obvious to everyone. The other is that the team uses analytics that you aren't aware of and that the manager isn't actually undermining them at every turn. It would be nice to know what the Jays are doing analytically but I doubt they'll ever make that public. That whole Cardinals/Astros database hacking thing wouldn't have mattered if the public had access to all the analytics teams do. Accepting that you don't know that part of the equation makes everything else make sense.

[Schad]

I mean, there are a couple possibilities here. One is that the Jays are absolutely brilliant and go along with the analytics you know but have a complete blind spot for the manager who undermines them at every turn and let it continue non-stop despite it being super obvious to everyone. The other is that the team uses analytics that you aren't aware of and that the manager isn't actually undermining them at every turn. It would be nice to know what the Jays are doing analytically but I doubt they'll ever make that public. That whole Cardinals/Astros database hacking thing wouldn't have mattered if the public had access to all the analytics teams do. Accepting that you don't know that part of the equation makes everything else make sense.

There's no particular secret to what teams emphasize in terms of their actual players, though. I don't have access to the Rays' numbers, but I can absolutely tell you what the Rays' analytics team values, because if you're letting the numbers drive your decisions it's really hard to hide these things when you're playing 162 games. But unless the Jays' analytics team's sole analysis is that "lefty versus righty good, righty versus righty death", in which case they're impossibly bad at their jobs, there is no pattern to tease out in the decision-making. It's likely that we just, as many teams do, employ our analytics to make roster and player dev decisions while letting the manager manage.

But there is zero, nil, nada, zilch chance that any analytics supports Charlie's strangest fetish: having players bunt with two strikes. This isn't a very complicated one, because there's a finite number of variables at play and run expectancy charts are a thing. Statistically, it's generally a bad idea to even have pitchers bunt with two strikes, save potentially for one specific situation (runners on 1st/2nd, none out), because it's actually more likely that they'll put the ball in play swinging away. Yet Charlie has gotten position players to do it repeatedly. If our analytics team was calling the shots -- if anyone even remotely familiar with what numbers are, for that matter -- that never would have happened once, never mind multiple times.

Most teams believe that undermining the manager by dictating their decisions is a bad thing. I happen to largely disagree with that, frankly, but that's the default. It shouldn't be even slightly surprising if we're letting our manager make in-game decisions, even if they're appallingly bad ones.

[Parataxis]

Can you tell me more about Xyglorp? I don't think he has the experience yet to take on the Manager's role, but I wonder if the Jays will be looking for an extra baserunning coach in the off-season. Being the first team to break the species barrier for management would be a big win for Canadian baseball. Let's do it!

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

Knowing what you know about analytics, explain to me what analytics suggest that you should use McGuire over Kirk. Or Valera over literally anyone. Please.

I'd like to posit a different theory: our lineup is set by Xyglorp, an iridescent, intergalactic spacefaring cabbage from the Horsehead Nebula. This may seem like a crazy theory, but bear with me for a moment. What seems more likely: that a bunch of people whose job it is to know how numbers work continually force the manager to make utterly innumerate decisions, or that Montoyo has invested his trust and management decisions in an shimmering side-dish capable of traveling in excess of the speed of light?

Because I have just as much proof that Xyglorp holds the reins as you do that our analytics guys are forcing his hand, but it's much honestly more plausible that a space cabbage -- which might not know baseball all that well -- is doing such stupid ****, versus guys whose careers revolve around knowing how matchups work consistently favouring matchups which make no earthly sense.

[johanliebert]

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

Knowing what you know about analytics, explain to me what analytics suggest that you should use McGuire over Kirk. Or Valera over literally anyone. Please.

I'd like to posit a different theory: our lineup is set by Xyglorp, an iridescent, intergalactic spacefaring cabbage from the Horsehead Nebula. This may seem like a crazy theory, but bear with me for a moment. What seems more likely: that a bunch of people whose job it is to know how numbers work continually force the manager to make utterly innumerate decisions, or that Montoyo has invested his trust and management decisions in an shimmering side-dish capable of traveling in excess of the speed of light?

Because I have just as much proof that Xyglorp holds the reins as you do that our analytics guys are forcing his hand, but it's much honestly more plausible that a space cabbage -- which might not know baseball all that well -- is doing such stupid ****, versus guys whose careers revolve around knowing how matchups work consistently favouring matchups which make no earthly sense.

I don't think it's a stretch to suggest there are analytics that we don't know about that teams follow. It doesn't mean they're always right about things but the idea that anyone here has an understanding of the analytics the team actually uses doesn't strike me as one that has any real merit.

Exactly they hire these nerds out of Ivy League schools and pay them well. Most of the stats we use here are formulas created by someone else, so like you alluded go there are %’s that we may not be privy to.

They don’t have an analytics department just so Charlie montoyo can set the lineup.

[Schad]

Exactly they hire these nerds out of Ivy League schools and pay them well. Most of the stats we use here are formulas created by someone else, so like you alluded go there are %’s that we may not be privy to.

They don’t have an analytics department just so Charlie montoyo can set the lineup.

Every team in baseball has an analytics department. Every team in baseball lets their manager set the lineup (a couple do so with strong input from the analytics department, but only a couple, and that's largely because those managers believe strongly in the use of data). Your sheer commitment to this belief, absent literally any evidence to support it beyond your own strident conviction, is truly breathtaking.

Seriously, if you want to know how wrong you are, try this: go to a Kevin Goldstein chat on Fangraphs and ask him whether the Jays' "nerds" are forcing Montoyo to play Breyvic Valera. Goldstein was the Astros' scouting director...the Astros are one of the more analytically-minded teams in baseball when they aren't outright cheating. He'd be intimately familiar with what the "nerds" do and don't do.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Exactly they hire these nerds out of Ivy League schools and pay them well. Most of the stats we use here are formulas created by someone else, so like you alluded go there are %’s that we may not be privy to.

They don’t have an analytics department just so Charlie montoyo can set the lineup.

Every team in baseball has an analytics department. Every team in baseball lets their manager set the lineup (a couple do so with strong input from the analytics department, but only a couple, and that's largely because those managers believe strongly in the use of data). Your sheer commitment to this belief, absent literally any evidence to support it beyond your own strident conviction, is truly breathtaking.

Seriously, if you want to know how wrong you are, try this: go to a Kevin Goldstein chat on Fangraphs and ask him whether the Jays' "nerds" are forcing Montoyo to play Breyvic Valera. Goldstein was the Astros' scouting director...the Astros are one of the more analytically-minded teams in baseball when they aren't outright cheating. He'd be intimately familiar with what the "nerds" do and don't do.

Goldstein was allegedly the guy who suggested using cameras to steal signs to relay to the dugout. If he says the nerds don't have heavy input into what happens in the dugout, I'm calling shenanigans.

As for splitting hairs and saying the managers "set" the lineup? Sure? But it's more like he can play Valera over other backups on the roster while other guys aren't "available" to them. Heavy input from the analytics department is a great way of them having the say without having to take ownership for the decisions and it's set up that way for a few reasons. They're not letting Charlie undermine them at every corner.

[Schad]

Goldstein was allegedly the guy who suggested using cameras to steal signs to relay to the dugout. If he says the nerds don't have heavy input into what happens in the dugout, I'm calling shenanigans.

No, he wasn't. Goldstein was accused of asking Astros advance scouts to record the signs used by opposing team coaches, so that the Astros could later decode them. That information would not be relayed to the dugout, because advance scouts are not in the same city as the dugout. I'm not defending that, by the way, it just had nothing to do with the sign-stealing scandal everyone talks about.

As for splitting hairs and saying the managers "set" the lineup? Sure? But it's more like he can play Valera over other backups on the roster while other guys aren't "available" to them. Heavy input from the analytics department is a great way of them having the say without having to take ownership for the decisions and it's set up that way for a few reasons. They're not letting Charlie undermine them at every corner.

I have no idea where the **** people got the idea that the analytics team runs the Jays. We don't even have a particular focus on analytics! They are not putting Reese McGuire in the lineup for an elimination game, and anyone who genuinely believes that might be the case really does not understand how baseball teams work. I'm sorry, it's absurd.

[johanliebert]

Exactly they hire these nerds out of Ivy League schools and pay them well. Most of the stats we use here are formulas created by someone else, so like you alluded go there are %’s that we may not be privy to.

They don’t have an analytics department just so Charlie montoyo can set the lineup.

Every team in baseball has an analytics department. Every team in baseball lets their manager set the lineup (a couple do so with strong input from the analytics department, but only a couple, and that's largely because those managers believe strongly in the use of data). Your sheer commitment to this belief, absent literally any evidence to support it beyond your own strident conviction, is truly breathtaking.

Seriously, if you want to know how wrong you are, try this: go to a Kevin Goldstein chat on Fangraphs and ask him whether the Jays' "nerds" are forcing Montoyo to play Breyvic Valera. Goldstein was the Astros' scouting director...the Astros are one of the more analytically-minded teams in baseball when they aren't outright cheating. He'd be intimately familiar with what the "nerds" do and don't do.

And I’m saying every team including the minor league affiliates are micromanaged by the analytic departments. Managers are pretty much supervisors who take the fall for what the guys upstairs decide.

[Schad]

And I’m saying every team including the minor league affiliates are micromanaged by the analytic departments. Managers are pretty much supervisors who take the fall for what the guys upstairs decide.

You are saying this based on absolutely zero evidence whatsoever. You believe this to be true, I'll give you that. You have as much reason to believe this as I do to believe that Xyglorp is calling the shots, but by god do you ever believe it.

Do you know how many people the Jays have in their analytics department? Ten, by my count.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/team/front-office-directory

Sanjay Choudhury: Assistant Director, Research & Development
Jeremy Reesor: Assistant Director, Baseball Operations
Peter Saunders: Assistant Director and Technical Lead, Baseball Systems
Adam Yudelman: Coordinator, Baseball Research
Graydon Carruthers: Coordinator, Baseball Research
Liam Stevenson: Assistant, Baseball Research
John Babocsi: Player Personnel Analyst
Dan Goldberg: Research Analyst
Spencer Estey: Baseball Systems Developer
Alex Robson: Baseball Systems Engineer


Some of those are not even data nerds...they're just nerd nerds. Their job is coding and web development. No, those ten people are not making all of the in-game decisions for six baseball teams, as well as their primary responsibility, which is to analyze game data for major league, minor league and amateur players. That's insane. Your theory is insane. Find me literally any article or interview that suggests that what you are saying is true, because "I believe it, ergo it's correct" is the same reason people drink bleach to cure cancer, with all of the expected results. You have decided that analytics, a thing you have demonstrated time and again that you do not understand, is to blame for anything you don't like, because why not. What happened to just blaming Freemasons?

[I_Like_Dirt]

And I’m saying every team including the minor league affiliates are micromanaged by the analytic departments. Managers are pretty much supervisors who take the fall for what the guys upstairs decide.

You are saying this based on absolutely zero evidence whatsoever. You believe this to be true, I'll give you that. You have as much reason to believe this as I do to believe that Xyglorp is calling the shots, but by god do you ever believe it.

Do you know how many people the Jays have in their analytics department? Ten, by my count.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/team/front-office-directory

Sanjay Choudhury: Assistant Director, Research & Development
Jeremy Reesor: Assistant Director, Baseball Operations
Peter Saunders: Assistant Director and Technical Lead, Baseball Systems
Adam Yudelman: Coordinator, Baseball Research
Graydon Carruthers: Coordinator, Baseball Research
Liam Stevenson: Assistant, Baseball Research
John Babocsi: Player Personnel Analyst
Dan Goldberg: Research Analyst
Spencer Estey: Baseball Systems Developer
Alex Robson: Baseball Systems Engineer


Some of those are not even data nerds...they're just nerd nerds. Their job is coding and web development. No, those ten people are not making all of the in-game decisions for six baseball teams, as well as their primary responsibility, which is to analyze game data for major league, minor league and amateur players. That's insane. Your theory is insane. Find me literally any article or interview that suggests that what you are saying is true, because "I believe it, ergo it's correct" is the same reason people drink bleach to cure cancer, with all of the expected results. You have decided that analytics, a thing you have demonstrated time and again that you do not understand, is to blame for anything you don't like, because why not. What happened to just blaming Freemasons?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-spt-baseball-managers-analytics-robots-paul-sullivan-20190324-story.html%3foutputType=amp

It's not like this is something out of left field. Baseball management types have basically been saying this kind of thing through the sides of their mouth for a while. Managers have the ability to add input but that ability is shrinking and whenever discussing their roles comes up It's never about managing lineups or strategic decisions and entirely about managing personalities. Planning and game-mapping happen hours before the game. It's not a reach to suggest that teams that spend less on less established/traditional managers are likely leaning to the analytics side of things more heavily. And it turns out the Jays are one of those teams.

If you want to split hairs and argue that managers have a bit of say rather than none at all (which is definitely hyperbole), sure. But their decision-making is highly restricted and suggesting Montoyo has an open-ended ability to make all the decisions he's being blamed for is super naive.

[Schad]

You seriously cited a terrible opinion article where all of the baseball management types effectively told him that's not how anything works.

[RalphWiggum]

Wrong thread.

[I_Like_Dirt]

You seriously cited a terrible opinion article where all of the baseball management types effectively told him that's not how anything works.

I'm not going to go digging. You're the one who suggested asking the guy was fired for figuring out how to cheat to get additional information in from scouts to the dugout whether or not managers make the decisions as though his words would surely back you up and even if they did that his words would somehow overrule his actions. You've offered even less backing your own opinion here.

[Schad]

I'm not going to go digging. You're the one who suggested asking the guy was fired for figuring out how to cheat to get additional information in from scouts to the dugout whether or not managers make the decisions as though his words would surely back you up and even if they did that his words would somehow overrule his actions. You've offered even less backing your own opinion here.

Ye gods man, at least make some small attempt to get your facts straight. You have access to Google, just the same as everyone else. Goldstein wasn't fired for his actions...he remained with the Astros for a full year after MLB announced the results and the Astros actually fired the people who were implicated. Goldstein was let go in the more general purge of the front office that happened later because the new FO, as often happens, wanted to install their guys.

Also worth noting that what Goldstein specifically was accused of isn't even remotely unique, beyond that he considered having advance scouts doing it. Every team in baseball tries to steal signs from the on-field personnel; it's why teams regularly change their signs. It's why teams have signs in the first place!

If you want proof, watch the games. The analytics department didn't demand that Gibby play station-to-station, statistically-sound baseball with good bullpen management only to suddenly discover a secret formula that says that it's much better to derp about trying to bunt and burn your best relievers in blowouts. And when, post-Charlie, we suddenly start playing in a fashion in keeping with the priorities of the new manager, it won't be because the analytics department suddenly did an about-face then, either.