Your 2022 Jays plan - or to-do list

[spykelee]

It does really come down to catcher. What hole do we want to address in that trade? That dictates where you go in free agency, but you have to think the infield makes sense there given the bevy of options. I love Marcus but its hard to see where he doesn't price himself out sadly. We will be okay though yea. Also gotta look at the outfield explore options with gurriel. I don't hate resigning Matz, Robbie I'm actually more at peace with losing but his loss is tough. We do need another top SP, Syndergaard maybe? Risky of course. and always some bullpen depth. I definitely wouldn't hate seeing Berrios signed to an extension as a real nice piece of business too

[polo007]

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[BramptonYute]

lock the core in and see what you can do financially to fill the rest out

[wamco]

Post mortems are backwards looking. I prefer to look ahead to what promises to be a very impactful off-season.

So I'll post mine here.

My 2022 plan: objective - 95+ wins, win the division

I don't see big erosion in the division, so I've targeted 95 wins as a minimum. From a payroll perspective, the Jays have a lower cost in pre-free agency commitments than the Yankees and Red Sox. Aside from Vlad moving into A1 and Teoscar, Stripling and Berrios moving up an arb year, guys like Jansen, Mayza and Biggio moving into A1 are not going to be budget busters. Of course, they could do a deal with Vlad, or buy out the arb years of Bichette, but right now, they do have flexibility to chase their own or other team's FAs, or take on salary in a trade or trades. They will be moving into Year 3 of Ryu's deal, so can also anticipate losing his money for 2024 and beyond.

In terms of existing salary commitments, the current starting point for the Jays is $64m, for the Yankees $135m, for Boston $119m (if JD Martinez doesn't opt out, if he does, of course, deduct $19.3m, but also his talent.) Rafael Devers is A2, and Hunter Renfroe who was a revelation is A3. The Rays starting point is $22m, and they can not re-sign Nelson Cruz, but it's hard to say what they would consider a salary ceiling, and they do have some A2 and A3 guys, so who knows with them... I just assume they will manage to be good again.

Restoring the full home advantage will help Toronto, but only if the Jays prioritize getting off to a better start. My plan is that they not rely on the trade deadline as they did in 2015 and 2021 to kickstart a second half run. Yes, I know the arguments in favor of deadline deals, I just think the AL East is too good right now to sacrifice so much of the season waiting on the deadline. Look at Boston, a team that was supposed to be rebuilding. A good start was the main reason they made the playoffs.

My Plan

Managers/coaches: I’ll go against the grain here and bring back the entire staff. Continuity matters, and short of a Kevin Cash hitting the market, I am not sure a change helps us that much. If anything changes, I’d look at the hitting approach, too much prolonged feast or famine, I like few more more happy meals.

Key free agents: Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, Steve Matz. My plan would be to prioritize the pitchers, because they are young enough still to justify multiyear deals, and if you bring both Ray and Matz, with Berrios and Manoah, you have a solid rotation. Ray had a season for the ages, so there is regression risk if he’s signed to a long-term deal.

Ryu is an issue, but he gets buried at #5 if he doesn’t have a better regular season. Ross Stripling is A3, so the team controls his fate. Presumably they haven’t given up on Nate Pearson as a starter.

Also, there isn’t much at the higher levels of the farm system, the more promising starters need at least 1-2 more seasons in MiLB before they can be considered here. Even Zach Logue, the prospect starter closest to the majors, ought to start again at Buffalo.

As for Semien, he’s 31, just had what ought to be an unbeatable season, will be looking for his last great payday, still styles himself as a SS, and the free agent market is rich in high quality veteran infielders like Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Trevor Storey, all of whom are younger than Semien. The Jays will tender Semien, that’s a no brainer, but if his demands are too high (I suspect they will be) or he lingers too long on a decision (I suspect he will), I would move aggressively to settle 2B and 3B, get a fairly high end veteran at one of those positions and stick with short-term options at the other. I would try to get Baez to replace Semien at 2b, keeping 3B longer term for Martinez or Groshans. Not sure the Mets with Stroman and Syndergaard hitting free agency will prioritize re-signing Baez. (Their salary starting point for the winter is $127m).

Depending on how the Semien situation pans out, the internal short-term options for 2B/3B are Espinal, Biggio and Otto Lopez, the latter currently our #4 prospect at MLB pipeline. Any one of these three could serve as placeholders.

Key needs: Depending on how the free agent situation breaks, I’d say another quality bullpen arm or two, ideally a setup guy, to push Cimber and Richards back into the sixth and seventh innings (the David Phelps role) and keep us from seeing marginal throwers like Thornton, Saucedo, etc, from letting close games become routs.

Trade assets: Catchers. Danny Jansen resurrected his trade value after his last injury, Alejandro Kirk is young and enticing to other teams, and Gabriel Moreno lurks. Any one of those three ought to command a decent veteran asset in return, or better, although I wouldn’t deal Moreno at all unless his inclusion in a package got us a blockbuster young, controllable veteran in return (unlikely).

Reese McGuire is available to back up whoever gets the bulk of the starts.
IMO, with Moreno and McGuire, the Jays can afford to part with either Jansen or Kirk.

I’d check around what Gurriel might bring back in a trade, he’s young on a great contract, can hit a tonne when healthy, except whenever he is injured, he takes a long time to get his batting eye back. And while he has a cannon for an arm, he’s otherwise an adventure in the outfield.

If Gurriel stays, I’d offer to eat some salary to send Grichuk to the NL. The return isn’t such a big deal but a few million saved might help justify an FA move elsewhere. Corey Dickerson ought to be available on a one-year deal if needed.

Prospects: Moreno’s case is strong, Otto Lopez has a knack of hitting .290 or better at any level he plays at, Zach Logue did fairly well at BUF, but I am not convinced he's for 2022. Aside from Moreno, the best talents like Martinez and Groshans and even second tier possibilities like Samad Taylor are not guys you’d count on next season.

- great post. I need to know how much money we feel we have to spend before responding in full. If 60ish mill for shear entertainment and heart factor I go with Donaldson , stro , matz and 2 stud back end rp (lhp and rhp). Trade grichuk to save a few bucks