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Projecting 2022 Salaries

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Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#1 » by bluerap23 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:04 pm

Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?
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Re: Projecting 2022 

Post#2 » by Schad » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:24 am

bluerap23 wrote:Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?



While looking for resource I came across this article from March 2020 https://www.tsn.ca/inactive-1.1460605 on projecting the lineup.

It's actually a pretty decent projection all things considered.


Matt Swartz developed a model that it's used by MLB Trade Rumors and has proven fairly accurate, but it's proprietary. Best I'm aware, there aren't any publicly-available models of any real calibre.

In its stead, I'd suggest using comparisons instead, especially for first-year arb players like Vlad. The obvious one there is Cody Bellinger, who like Vlad was a Super 2 player who was an MVP candidate (Bellinger actually won) in his final pre-arb season. Bellinger got $11.5m; I'd expect Vlad to be in a similar range. Could be a shade higher given inflation and Vlad's slightly gaudier counting stats, could be a shade lower given that Bellinger won the MVP and Vlad will likely finish 2nd.

For the others who have already gone through arb, you're kinda looking at a bounded range based on current performance and past arb raises.

Berrios got an arb raise of $2.1m in 2021 and has performed fairly well: I'd expect him to settle in the $9.0m range.

Teoscar is having a very good year (particularly with his counting stats), and something in the $7.5m range wouldn't be surprising.

Stripling probably settles in the $4m range unless he's non-tendered, which is entirely possible.

None of the other guys will be more than $1.5m, I'd imagine.
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Re: Projecting 2022 

Post#3 » by bluerap23 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:15 pm

Schad wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:Anyone have any good resources for how to project arbitration eligible player salaries for 2022?



While looking for resource I came across this article from March 2020 https://www.tsn.ca/inactive-1.1460605 on projecting the lineup.

It's actually a pretty decent projection all things considered.


Matt Swartz developed a model that it's used by MLB Trade Rumors and has proven fairly accurate, but it's proprietary. Best I'm aware, there aren't any publicly-available models of any real calibre.

In its stead, I'd suggest using comparisons instead, especially for first-year arb players like Vlad. The obvious one there is Cody Bellinger, who like Vlad was a Super 2 player who was an MVP candidate (Bellinger actually won) in his final pre-arb season. Bellinger got $11.5m; I'd expect Vlad to be in a similar range. Could be a shade higher given inflation and Vlad's slightly gaudier counting stats, could be a shade lower given that Bellinger won the MVP and Vlad will likely finish 2nd.

For the others who have already gone through arb, you're kinda looking at a bounded range based on current performance and past arb raises.

Berrios got an arb raise of $2.1m in 2021 and has performed fairly well: I'd expect him to settle in the $9.0m range.

Teoscar is having a very good year (particularly with his counting stats), and something in the $7.5m range wouldn't be surprising.

Stripling probably settles in the $4m range unless he's non-tendered, which is entirely possible.

None of the other guys will be more than $1.5m, I'd imagine.



Thanks for that! Thoughts on this? To illustrate what options we have locked in to start with in the off-season.

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Re: Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#4 » by bluerap23 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:31 pm

Updated based on these projections

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Re: Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#5 » by The_Hater » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:03 pm

Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?
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Re: Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#6 » by bluerap23 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:08 pm

The_Hater wrote:Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?


Hah! The totals are exactly the same and I didn't even notice. The changes all cancelled each other out!
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Re: Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#7 » by Aimless Outlook » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:12 pm

I find it hard to believe that if the Jays ate ~4 million of Grichuk's salary, that a team looking for a CF wouldn't jump on that and part with a 4/5 starting pitcher or a couple decent relievers. Am I out to lunch on that?

Or, are they keeping Grichuk around until they have a better idea of Springer's health going forward?
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Re: Projecting 2022 Salaries 

Post#8 » by Schad » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:13 pm

bluerap23 wrote:
The_Hater wrote:Nice work Bluerap,

Your total didn’t change at the bottom after the updates, I take it that was an oversight?


Hah! The totals are exactly the same and I didn't even notice. The changes all cancelled each other out!


That's pretty funny. I'm surprised how high Teo's figure was, given that he wasn't rewarded generously in first-year arb, but arbitration definitely favours traditional counting stats, and his were very good this past year. I'm also surprised by Vlad's projection...Super-2 players do generally get a bit less in their first year, but I had expected him to be at $10m or above.

But apparently my wrongness was, overall, right...?
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