Blue Jays extend Berrios (7/131)

[Cyrus]

On a side note, although surrendering Martin and SWR really stung, the fact that we acquired Berrios along with his rights means that his signing doesn't cost us a 1st/2nd rounder in free agency. So, if you squint, you can almost add a 1st/2nd rounder to what we got back (Berrios) in the trade with the Twins.

If we signed next year, assuming he was with the twins, and signed the 160 mill, don't think it costs us a 1st/2nd rounder. It would been "losing their second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period." So our 2nd rounder and 500K international dollars, don't think no matter how hard you squint that is equivalent to #5 overall pick and SWR.

Type A right? 2nd rounder minimum. Sometimes a 1st depending on the Twins year? I could be wrong.

I think you can see,, I'm still trying to justify the trade in my mind.

They simplified it. "If a team signs a player who rejected the qualifying offer, it loses a draft pick, and depending on its revenue-sharing status, a portion of its international signing bonus pool.

If the Phillies, for example, sign Castellanos, they would lose their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft and would lose $500,000 from their international bonus pool. If they were to sign two players who rejected the offer -- say, Castellanos and Iglesias -- they'd forfeit their second- and third-highest picks.

[Michael Bradley]

The Jays couldn't afford to let him go, and it had nothing to do with the trade. The starting pitching depth in the system is pretty suspect short-term. They needed to have Berrios locked up for some stability. Beyond him and Manoah, it's a possibly declining Ryu for two more seasons and question marks after that. Pearson's clock is ticking as a viable SP option. Hatch as of now is a depth piece. Stripling is a swing man with a year of control left. This was a move they desperately needed to do. The fact that they gave up top prospects to get him also made signing him essential, but the more pressing issue is that they absolutely couldn't afford to lose him.

I'm assuming they try to add two SP's this winter, one of the bigger variety in free agency or trade, and then the 2022 equivalent of 2021 Ray/Matz (apparently they were in on Heaney before he went to the Dodgers). Another good SP on a long-term deal would be a good thing.

[polo007]

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[Brinbe]

glad they were able to keep him. good to know we (probably) at a minimum have berrios/manoah as good long-term rotation pieces. we need to add, obviously. but this was a good move.

[v1n5anity]

Is there enough left for Semien and Tight Pants? I really forgot his name and too lazy to look it up bit you know who I’m talking about.

[bluerap23]

Is there enough left for Semien and Tight Pants? I really forgot his name and too lazy to look it up bit you know who I’m talking about.

There is enough for one of them this year for sure. We may be in a position where we have to offload salary next year though. Grichuk and Ryu will both be entering the final year of their deals next off-season so it should be doable at a reasonable prospect cost.

[VanWest82]

Thumbs up.

Ray is going to win the Cy and he just turned 30. What's his market value, 25M AAV?

I hope Jays are able to bring the gang back but I could see them making a calculated business decision after going big on this extension.

[I_Like_Dirt]

On a side note, although surrendering Martin and SWR really stung, the fact that we acquired Berrios along with his rights means that his signing doesn't cost us a 1st/2nd rounder in free agency. So, if you squint, you can almost add a 1st/2nd rounder to what we got back (Berrios) in the trade with the Twins.

I like Berrios more than Stroman. While Martin is definitely more valuable than Kay, I can understand it. The Jays have lost a little bit of value over every transaction - not a lot, just a little, and it added up. Still, with Manoah and Berrios locked up, that's two top 3 starters under control for the next several years. The bats are more than alright. It's a solid starting point for the next 5 years or so.

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[Lateral Quicks]

I like this deal a lot. He throws a lot of innings with good peripherals, and this is a reasonable AAV. You could argue he's underpaid for the next few years, though the last couple may look bad.

Berrios/Ryu/Manoah is a solid start. I hope we can bring back Matz and Stripling back, and add a #3 type as well.

[Schad]

As with any long-term deal for a pitcher, it's a matter of health. Berrios has been very durable to date, but that's no guarantee of being healthy for three years, never mind seven.

It's still a reasonable risk though because the AAV effectively means that you're paying him ~$20m a year for his FA years, which isn't out of line. But it's still a deal where the best-case scenario is likely that he opts out of the final two years.

[agkagk]

good signing. a year more than Id like to see, but seems like a good compromise.

best part is, now we can walk away from robbie ray without losing face (let someone else overpay for his career season!).

[SharoneWright]

This press conference provides clear evidence that Berrios has a perfectly shaped head.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

José Berríos Press Conference | 11/18/2021 | MLB.com

José Berríos Press Conference

November 18, 2021 | 02:29:13

WATCH LIVE: José Berríos’ press conference in Toronto!

[Schad]

Structure on the Berrios deal is very good. Backloaded contracts are generally quite iffy, but combined with the opt-out we're either looking at a 5 year, $83m deal (which is excellent) or a 7 years, $131-141m deal (which is an acceptable risk). Unlikely he opts out unless he's a superstar in his early/mid 30s, however.

[polo007]

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[Skin Blues]

5th year opt out clause, keeps getting better.

Better for who? Opt out decreases his expected value. We still get all the risk but we lose the potential upside. It's unlikely he's still good enough at that age where he can do better than 2/$48M, but it's definitely better for the Jays if he doesn't have that opt out clause. In other words: if he sucks or is injured in 2026, we're stuck with him. If he's still excellent, then we lose him.

[Hoopstarr]

Escalators and opt-out should've gotten us front loading, but instead we take on all the risk in exchange for I guess a below average AAV. It's not bad, but not necessarily great. Anything beyond 4 years with non-superstars always makes me nervous.