Time for Rogers to open vault to get Jays to next level

[dagger]

Well, it's pretty much what I expected - the cheap turds at Rogers would start lining up their excuses why not to spend.

From tomorrow's Globe

You can probably tell where Anthopoulos wants to go with this, right? Anthopoulos sees a lineup that is “a talented, athletic core of position players with risk, because it’s young and inexperienced.

“It’s performance risk,” he said, “and we’re going to have it from year to year until they become established players.”

President Paul Beeston will not okay six- or seven-year deals, which eliminates the Blue Jays from free-agent hunts for the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. So stow those pipe dreams away. Anthopoulos is more likely to try to put together a package for a young pitcher, possibly as part of a three-team deal in which the Jays would also move out one or two of their highly touted prospects, than sink big money into a free-agent pitcher such as C.J. Wilson, for example. Toss in a possible foray into the Japanese market for Yu Darvish, and there’s your off-season.

“When we look at free agents, we better believe those guys are a clear upgrade over what we have internally,” he said. “Because to go out and sign a free agent who is a back-end starter and commit dollars and years and then find out halfway though the year some of these guys are coming in, the way Henderson Alvarez did this year …”

Anthopoulos let his voice trail off. If he detected the sound of opportunity knocking as a result of issues in New York, Boston and Tampa this season he’s keeping it to himself.

[hyper316]

The above quote about Beeston is sorta untrue. Didn't Bautista get a 5+1 year deal? that's close enough for 6 six-year deal. so i think management are more comfortable re-signing internally to big contracts than signing someone in the FA

if blue jays are being cheap for now, then trade some of the farm for votto. votto is under control for 2 years. if he excels and helping the bluejays in a big way, then i don't think they'll be as afraid to sign votto to a big contract after seeing him perform with the team.

[Randle McMurphy]

If Blair is right, I guess it's Darvish or bust as far as spending money goes in the offseason. Disappointing, but you can't say it's surprising considering the entity that owns this team. And if they're not going to spend money this offseason, with all of the cost-controlled young talent on the MLB roster and with the elite players available, I have my doubts that they'll ever spend big.

Anyway, it's apparently time for yet another year of a below average payroll in one of the largest markets in the league. There are cheaper ways to improve the offense without spending on one of those two, so I'm still going to hold out hope that Lind won't be starting full-time in 2012.

[youreachiteach]

Yeah, it's obvious that AA and by extension, Rogers, is very averse to the standard free agency contract (with some good reasoning, although I think it's more of a budgetary restriction/reality due to ticket sales underperforming). He believes in high end/high risk talent both abroad and in the minors.

I think AA will go after Votto and Darvish, which I think is more than enough. We've seen AA's relentless pursuit of players who he designates as "must haves" and Votto is clearly the next domino. He has already aggressively pursued him from many sources. It might take until halfway through next season, but he'll eventually bring him home (yes, wishful thinking, but I will not be surprised given the depth of prospects we have to dangle).

Darvish is a bit of long shot because New York and Boston BOTH need pitching but we throw our hats into the ring. The Jays budget is clearly quite ample for international signings (and quite low for everything else, but I digress) and if we're going to compete, getting a young ace to pair with Romero is a also a must. Reading between the lines, I think Fielder goes to New York and Pujols to Boston (especially if they miss the playoffs) If that;s the case, elite pitching will be even more paramount. And perhaps the prohibitive cost of the new all starts makes them more gun shy than usual. We'll see.

If AA strikes out on those conquests, it'll be internal development (maybe Hutch and McGowan fighting for spots in the rotation and Lind/EE manning first and Loewen in left until Snider pounds the door down) and trade assets for picks for another year.

Here's hoping he gets the aforementioned done. I think whether the wild card is added next year may also have a large impact on the overall picture.

[youreachiteach]

Anyway, it's apparently time for yet another year of a below average payroll in one of the largest markets in the league. There are cheaper ways to improve the offense without spending on one of those two, so I'm still going to hold out hope that Lind won't be starting full-time in 2012.[/quote]

Overall I agree. I would add though, that AA is a value guy who is reticent to trade even journeymen players at a low point in their careers. Players who are struggling this year such as Lind I think are kept (ie. not traded) because there's really no where to go for them but up.

Perhaps Lind's troubles are related to his injuries, and perhaps Morrow's could be fixed with an extra pitch or simply time. EE has already confirmed that this strategy bears fruit, and Alex will continue to be on the hunt for "buy lows" in the marketplace.

Thus, I think that means we are stuck with the Lind/EE combo platter (which, as a platoon, I suppose might not be horrible) until they perform at a high enough level to be dealt.

[Michael Bradley]

That is definitely disappointing, if true. I can understand being gunshy about free agency when it involves the BJ Ryan's of the world, but not Albert Pujols.

With that said, AA does not seem like someone who plays the free agency game. He wouldn't budge with Tyler Beede over a relatively small amount because he did not want to pay Beede more than he felt Beede was worth. That was a squabble over about $1M. He almost went to arbitration with his superstar player earlier this year over a few million dollars. AA is a guy who places value on everything, and now that I think about it I can't even picture him overbidding another team for Fielder, or Wilson, or even Pujols (unfortunately).

Darvish is probably the exception since AA could convince Rogers that the ROI would be worth it in the long run, but the other FA's are far riskier from a money standpoint since their value will be driven exclusively by performance (Darvish could make the team money regardless).

I like the idea of having a team filled with cost controlled young talent, but there are only so many Colby Rasmus and Yunel Escobar trades out there. At some point you have to make a free agent signing for a star when it becomes available. The Rays are very, very difficult to emulate, and if the Jays wait any longer they could be wasting the prime of another superstar.

[jrsmith]

Shocker!!!

Seriously though, they aren't making the playoffs with that strategy, ever. And if they come back with scrubs like Lind, E5, Cecil, etc its going to be nice to see those attendance numbers plummet right back down.

But as I have always known, yay for slowly building a team, being safe, and executing the same ridiculously pathetic 5 year plan over and over and over and over and over and over. Insanity?

With ownerships moronically amusing save every penny you can philosophy, I think their best bet would be to put all the resources of these miserable 60mil payrolls towards begging for a division change.

"We dont believe in 6-7 year contracts", in todays world of sports has got to be the most atrocious cop out I have ever heard. Its ok though, this is Toronto. We have an awesome history of building young superstars from our system and having them come up with us, win with us, and go all the way with us.

The hilarity is that if this board is an indication of anything, about 50% of people like the additive of bull in their morning cereal. Rogers number 1 priority is making sure you are fed, so I guess they wont be too unhappy.

[dagger]

It's eye-opening that the Leafs and Raptors pay (or will soon be paying) into their leagues' revenue sharing, but the Jays are a rev sharing recipient and seemingly plan to stay that way for years to come. We have a high dollar, increased attendance, increased TV ratings, but the tight-fisted bean counters at Rogers won't stray outside the lines that must be crossed for the Jays to compete with New York and Boston.

I'll make the point again: To get to the playoffs as they are constituted today, you must finish top 2 in the AL East. That's a prerequisite, not a guarantee of a playoff spot (if we finish second). Both the Yankees and Red Sox will continue to generate their own share of prospects to play or trade, and then supplement that by spending $100 million more than the Jays on salary. Tampa also stands in the way. They don't have the money but they have a farm system that is at least our equal in identifying talent and perhaps better at developing it, which is why spending some money on upper level free agency can ensure we leap frog them even if they continue to crank out guys like Jennings.

By the way, I don't understand why people think Darvish is an exception. He's Japanese. There is a small Japanese community in Canada. Asians don't necessarily cheer for each other. Do you seriously think all the Chinese and Koreans in Canada are going to start watching Jays games because they have a Japanese pitcher?

[BigLeagueChew]

This is the way Beeston and AA operate but that doesn't mean they won't sign anyone long term.

Pat Gillick didn't believe in long term contracts but he did give one to Dave Stieb, Ichiro Suzuki and to a lesser extent Arthur Rhodes.

[tecumseh18]

Smokescreen!

Eh, maybe not. AA has signaled all long that he's more into trading for talent then overpaying FAs. And he's obviously really good at it. Even where he seemed to fail (not getting another SP to start the season), it might have been intentional that he didn't bring Greinke to the AL East. Or Greinke's choice. Either way, probably a good decision. Meanwhile, his FA record hasn't been as successful.

This approach isn't as satisfying for fans, because we become like Portland Trailblazer management - too in love with our own young talent. It's hard to make the emotional investment in guys coming up through the minors, only to see them traded away. Oh no, we traded Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff! Whereas in a league with no salary cap, it's harder for casual fans to see the downside of signing Fielder or Pujols to seven year contracts. They're like found money. But not to management.

But ... but ... I still think AA's going to go for Fielder AND Darvish. Just a gut instinct.

[Geddy]

I had a feeling this dream of landing either Fielder or Pujols was too good to be true. It would be too far out of line of Rogers' character to spend money on others since thier M.O seems to be taking money from others. They are probably content that they can finish third or fourth on this budget salary, and getting half the stadium full for every game.

I guess I'll hold out some hope that they will make a bid on either of the two, and this talk is just there to avoid driving up the price.

[Modern_epic]

By the way, I don't understand why people think Darvish is an exception. He's Japanese. There is a small Japanese community in Canada. Asians don't necessarily cheer for each other. Do you seriously think all the Chinese and Koreans in Canada are going to start watching Jays games because they have a Japanese pitcher?

Nope, no one thinks that. And no one has claimed to, I don't think.

What they do think is that money will come from Japan. They think Japanese broadcasters will pick up the team's games, and Japanese advertisers will buy the ad space behind home plate for them. The logic is that Japanese fans can also buy your merchandise, and not just jerseys with the player's name. And they think this because it has already happened with Ichiro, Matsui, and Dice-K (in varying degrees).

[Schad]

I would still be surprised if we allowed a philosophical perspective prevent us from offering a contract to two of the best hitters in baseball, but that does leave Votto.

[Michael Bradley]

The club doesn't seem to mind signing players that are already under contract (Bautista, Romero, etc) to big contracts, so it is possible that the Beeston philosophy is more about avoiding paying free agent market value for free agents. Which of course makes it difficult to add impact talent because they would be relying almost entirely on internal development and trading. AA has done a good job with trading so far, but when all it would take to sign one of the greatest hitters of all-time (Pujols) is a blank check, it would be pretty foolish not to at least try.

So I guess best case scenario in regards to acquiring an elite bat would probably be trading the farm for Votto and then trying to lock him up past 2013 at a discounted (non-free agent) rate. That would depend on whether the Jays have enough to acquire him in the first place and whether Votto would even want to sign long-term prior to testing the FA market. He makes $26.5M over two years so certainly affordable. What he would want after 2013 is what might scare off ownership.

[Avenger]

Votto will not agree to a discounted rate extention under any circumstances. For a player, he is extremely knowledgeable about the CBA, arbitration, free agency and player value, he has openly made comments about how valuable free agency is for a player. Unless you give him Adrian Gonzalez/Mark Texiera money, he will happily hit the open market and ask for 200 million which he will get easily.

[DirtyDez]

Top 5 offense this year. Why go for Prince over CJ Wilson?

[Parataxis]

So I guess best case scenario in regards to acquiring an elite bat would probably be trading the farm for Votto and then trying to lock him up past 2013 at a discounted (non-free agent) rate.

AA doesn't really have a history of paying discounted rates - at the time the contract is signed. Remember, a year ago, lots of people thought we were OVERpaying Bautista - players arn't going to sign for significantly less than the market thinks they're worth.

Same with FAs. AA won't overpay, but he's not going to expect a discount as well. He'll offer what he thinks they're worth, and hope other teams arn't going to pay more than their production dictates.

[Schad]

Top 5 offense this year. Why go for Prince over CJ Wilson?

Fifth in runs scored, below average in OPS+. We're lucky to have scored as many as we have, really, and we're still nearly a run a game behind the Sox and Yanks.

[Homer Jay]

Top 5 offense this year. Why go for Prince over CJ Wilson?

Fifth in runs scored, below average in OPS+. We're lucky to have scored as many as we have, really, and we're still nearly a run a game behind the Sox and Yanks.

Hey Schad, with Thames over Patterson, Rasmus over Davis, Edwin (2nd half) over Rivera, Johnson over Hill, and Lawrie over Nix/Edwin (1st half), have the Jays not already bumped their offense? Not saying that we don't need one more elite bat, and to bring Johnson back (probably cheaper to bring him back then to address 2nd in any other way), but is the rotation situation not standing out more than the lineup?

[Avenger]

So I guess best case scenario in regards to acquiring an elite bat would probably be trading the farm for Votto and then trying to lock him up past 2013 at a discounted (non-free agent) rate.

AA doesn't really have a history of paying discounted rates - at the time the contract is signed. Remember, a year ago, lots of people thought we were OVERpaying Bautista - players arn't going to sign for significantly less than the market thinks they're worth.

Same with FAs. AA won't overpay, but he's not going to expect a discount as well. He'll offer what he thinks they're worth, and hope other teams arn't going to pay more than their production dictates.

lol, are you serious? Yunel Escobar's contract was lauded the moment it was signed. The players assosciation actually started whining when we signed Adam Lind to that team friendly contract, now that didn't turn out so well but that contract was also universally hailed at the time. Ricky Romero was also considered to be a good value contract(not by me personally)