2025 Blue Jays Offseason Thread

[polo007]

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[Cyrus]

Blue Jays: RHP Spencer Miles (Giants) - Here is our Closer we've been looking for.

Just drafted him in rule 5. One of the reasons they opened a spot on the 40 man.

With a rule 5 draftee, we need to keep him on the active roster, not just the 40-man, right?

Yup he needs to be part of the 26 man roster all year long, or injuried...so might be why we took a gamble on a guy who is coming of Tommy John, would be easy medically put him on IR and skirt around the rules.

[LoveMyRaps]

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[WuTang_CMB]

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[Michael Bradley]

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The Mets seem to want to avoid long-term deals. They got out of two additional years with the Semien/Nimmo deal, and they didn't want to pay Diaz or Alonso beyond 3 years. I don't see them being in on Tucker.

I think Tucker either signs a long deal with the Jays or a shorter deal with the Dodgers for higher AAV. I really don't see any other team being in on him who are willing to go beat either of those two extremes (outbidding the Jays on a 8-10 year deal or giving a higher AAV than the Dodgers on a shorter deal).

[polo007]

Blue Jays reunions with Bassitt, Scherzer unlikely but not impossible - Sportsnet.ca

At the moment, the Blue Jays project to have surplus in the rotation, with Cease, Ponce and Bieber joining incumbents Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios and potential swingmen Eric Lauer and Bowden Francis.

Still, pitching attrition is nearly always high and Ross Atkins said this week that the Blue Jays are currently taking it week-to-week with Bieber (Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported that he experienced forearm fatigue although the right-hander being ready for opening day “is a very realistic outcome,” the GM added.

That’s also why the durability Berrios offers is so valuable and why the club’s focus is on helping him rebound from a difficult second half during which he had elbow issues. The right-hander was “not happy” about being pulled from the rotation and left the team during the World Series, but rather than trading him the Blue Jays appear motivated to work with him.

A deal there would also be complicated by the $66 million he’s owed over the next three years — he has an opt out after next season but is due $24 million in each of 2027 and 2028 with innings-pitched escalators that could push those salaries higher — which makes getting him back to form the priority.

One way or another, the Blue Jays remain open to adding further pitching capable of starting and their interest in free agent Brad Keller is also interesting within that context. Keller, a free agent who posted a 2.07 ERA in 69.2 innings with the Cubs this past season, is a former starter who has been drawing interest as both a starter and a reliever. Whichever team adds him will gain flexibility heading into the 2026 season.

The Blue Jays know well how today’s surplus can become tomorrow’s deficit, the main reason pitching was their priority entering the off-season and remains an area of interest as they leave the Winter Meetings.

• An executive familiar with the relief market said Edwin Diaz initially sought a five-year deal before reaching agreement with the Dodgers on a three-year, $69 million contract. The structure allowed Los Angeles to limit the term while also giving Diaz more than the $38 million over two years he opted out of with the Mets, along with the highest average-annual value for a reliever. The Blue Jays were involved to some degree, but the final price likely landed beyond their comfort zone.

[polo007]

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[Duffman100]

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Ugh not Drew Butera

[JN]

Blue Jays: RHP Spencer Miles (Giants) - Here is our Closer we've been looking for.

Just drafted him in rule 5. One of the reasons they opened a spot on the 40 man.

With a rule 5 draftee, we need to keep him on the active roster, not just the 40-man, right?

Yup he needs to be part of the 26 man roster all year long, or injuried...so might be why we took a gamble on a guy who is coming of Tommy John, would be easy medically put him on IR and skirt around the rules.

They sort of closed the IL Loophole... a rule 5 draftee who was IL'd the entire year, has to spend the first 90 days of the next season on the active roster before the team gets "Full control" of them and has the ability to option them to the minors. Alternatively if Miles is hurt on and off during 2026, until he spends 90 days on the MLB roster, he cannot get send down to the minors (unless its injury rehab). If he did less than 90 days between injuries in 2026, he would need to serve the remainder on the active roster to start 2027.

The best example is our prior year Rule 5 draftee Angel Bastardo. He was hurt all of 2025, but he has to spend the first 90 days of 2026 on the Jays roster, before he can get sent down to the minors. Otherwise he must be returned to his prior team.

[polo007]

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[bartron_44]

Still hoping to see them land Bo, Tucker and Suarez, and to also keep Bassitt in that clubhouse.

Right now they have essentially swapped out Bassitt and Scherzer for Cease and Ponce. To have a better lineup (on paper) than last year, they need both Bo AND Tucker. They also lost Dominguez. So the first late inning guy they sign is also only a replacement.

Knowing the above, I could totally see them being aggressive on Bo and Suarez to ensure they are at least as strong as last year.. and letting the market play out for Tucker so if he signs, he’s the cherry on top of this offseason.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[bartron_44]

If they will pay Vladdy for a decade, and consider paying Bo long term, they should have 0 issues paying Tucker. And if they get both, that is one heck of a run producing trio to anchor their offense.

[Cyrus]

Well winter meetings is over, wonder when the next domino falls, guessing some of the RPs are moving off the board, so that might happen soon. The kyle / Bo thing seems like it'll be a bit before that gets resolved.

When the cap system comes in, Free agency will be a week like NBA/NHL, NFL

[polo007]

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[LoveMyRaps]

Winter meetings come to an end. Jays w/ no moves during it.

Definitely get the impression that although we may still be frontrunners, the gap has closed between us and the Dodgers.

I think Tucker is strongly gonna consider the bright lights of LA.

They're willing to pay him an absurdly high AAV over the course of 3-4 years. Despite it not being the 6+ year term he's looking for, it gives him a legitimate shot at winning multiple World Series titles playing with that dynasty. Once Freddie comes off the books in 3 years and most likely retires, Tucker can take his spot and decide to extend with the Dodgers.

My meter says: 55% Jays, 40% Dodgers, 5% Other.

[LoveMyRaps]

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[polo007]

Early deals give Blue Jays flexibility after quiet winter meetings - Sportsnet.ca

The read of some agents involved with the Blue Jays is that Robert Suarez, the last established closer remaining in free agency, is their top target, which wouldn’t be surprising since they pursued him the last time he was on the open market, too. But there’s a handful of other leverage relievers they’re considering, as well, with Luke Weaver, Pete Fairbanks, Brad Keller and Tyler Rogers among those they’ve been in touch with.

How the different options fit into their plans is uncertain, but the Blue Jays may very well be at the point where their next addition cuts them off from other possibilities. That wouldn’t apply to their pursuits of Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, who are being viewed as unique opportunities, allowing them to stretch beyond their current budget. Outside of the duo and perhaps a couple of others, though, it’s reasonable to think that they’ll deliberate particularly hard over whatever it is they do next.

At stake is not just 2026 but also beyond, when the future is somewhat murkier due to the collective bargaining agreement’s expiration on Dec. 1, 2026.

The expectation at this point is that a lockout will be imposed immediately, followed by a push to move from the current Competitive Balance Tax system, which restricts but doesn’t control spending, to a harder cap.

If the owners succeed in getting a cap, the highest spending teams could find themselves hamstrung if they have too much guaranteed future money on the books.

The Blue Jays are currently projecting a CBT payroll of roughly $273 million for next year, but they have nearly $92 million coming off the books for 2026 as George Springer ($25 million), Kevin Gausman ($23 million), Shane Bieber ($16 million), Daulton Varsho ($9.7 million), Yimi Garcia ($7.5 million), Myles Straw ($6 million) and Eric Lauer ($4.4 million) are all potential free agents.

Eating into those savings is that Cease ($22 million with $10 million deferred to $30 million with $9 million deferred), Jose Berrios ($18 million to $24 million), Andres Gimenez ($15 million to $23 million) and Alejandro Kirk ($8.7 million to $12.325 million) are all due significant raises for 2027.

Still, even with roughly $154 million guaranteed to nine players, the Blue Jays should have enough flexibility to either navigate a potential restructuring of the game’s finances or to capitalize on the next free-agent market under the current rules.

That also holds true if the market works one of Bichette or Tucker to them, yet another byproduct of getting Cease done so quickly.