2018-19 Offseason Thread

[Spiderdan22]

How so? I mean, yeah, they would have been better to have traded him a couple seasons ago but Rogers was never going to sign off on that. Failure would have been signing him to a long-term extension/contract. Thank goodness they didn't do that.

Yeah he should have been dealt before 2018. But since he wasn't, the should have held on to him and given him a QO. It was obvious he was only getting a one year deal anyway. Now if he has a rebound season, and he probably will, he could have been dealt for a better player than a pitcher who is 7000 years old and never played above AA. Complete failure to manage assets, and even worse that it's for a former MVP.

So your plan was to pay Donaldson $14M so that we can trade him for a prospect that is worth maybe $6M at the deadline in 2019. And this of course pre-supposes that Donaldson is as good as ever, and remains healthy. Which is quite a risk considering his age, and how the previous two seasons have gone with him. And this is the best-case scenario, just to get a marginally better prospect.

I don't think there's any doubt that we did the best we could at the deadline last year to get a good return on Donaldson. Sinking another $18M into him in hopes of an incremental improvement would have been a really bad bet to make since we don't benefit at all from any upside, really. The Indians would have benefited from a resurgence in the playoffs, so they had a reason to take the risk with him.

I can see the argument that we waited too long to trade him, which of course makes sense in hindsight. As do all non-trades of a player who goes on to have serious health and performance issues, especially when a team severely under-performs expectations overall. But to say the Jays made a mistake at the deadline last year makes no sense. Cut your losses, don't double-down with a bad bet.

It's what AA is doing right now. He's totally banking on JD rebounding this year. If he does, he'll give JD a QO and take the draft pick when JD signs with another team in the offseason. So yes, the Jays should have kept JD since he was not dealt before the season started, given a QO, and shoot for a better prospect than a failed minor leaguer in the draft.

[polo007]

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[Myth11111]

Our assistant GM is about to be on the MLB networK.

[BigLeagueChew]

Martin could work on the Brewers.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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Discussions continue between the Dodgers and Indians about a blockbuster trade that could result in a two-time Cy Young Award winner joining Clayton Kershaw in the Los Angeles rotation.

Sources say the Dodgers and Indians have discussed various trade proposals in recent days. One such possibility involves Cleveland ace Corey Kluber going to Los Angeles in a deal that includes Yasiel Puig.

The Dodgers would need to add at least one significant player in addition to Puig in order for the Indians to seriously consider moving Kluber, one source said Wednesday. MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal was first to report the talks between the Dodgers and Indians.

In addition to Puig, the Dodgers have catching-prospect depth and would likely be willing to move left-hander Alex Wood and right-handed prospect Yadier Alvarez, who was just recently added to Los Angeles' 40-man roster.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

Our assistant GM is about to be on the MLB networK.

Joe Sheehan phones in live to MLB Now to discuss the Blue Jays' offseason plans regarding the team's starting rotation.

https://www.mlb.com/video/joe-sheehan-joins-mlb-now/c-2520334883?tid=7417714

[Skin Blues]

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Damn, was hoping we'd get him. $15M guarantee maxing out at $18M would have been well worth the gamble to have a guy of that calibre in 2020.

[polo007]

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Cost uncertainty is one reason for the Indians to trade right-hander Trevor Bauer rather than Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. Bauer’s appeal to clubs heavy into analytics is another. He turns 28 on Jan. 17, approaches his craft intellectually and is still trending upward.

Carrasco will pitch next season at 32, Kluber at 33. Carrasco is the most affordable, earning $9.75 million in 2019 with a $10.25 million club option in ’20. Kluber will earn $17 million in 2019 with club options of $17.5 million in ’20 and $18 million in ’21 (his three straight top-three Cy Young finishes triggered escalators in his original contract).

Bauer, with two years of arbitration remaining before he becomes a free agent, has said repeatedly he will not sign an extension, preferring to go year to year. MLBTradeRumors projects he will earn $11.6 million in arbitration next season. His number the following year might approach $20 million. The Indians cannot be sure.

Any team that acquired Bauer would inherit the same questions, but clubs today crave surplus value — a player’s worth, based upon Wins Above Replacement, beyond his salary. Bauer, even as he grows more expensive, offers the greatest upside, and perhaps the greatest chance for surplus value among the three available Indians starters.

[polo007]

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[Black Watch]

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This is going to be a big deal, I think.

[Black Watch]

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10:15pm: It seems that the two sides haven’t quite finalized the group of players who’d head to Seattle in the deal. Martino tweets that the Mets are still “hesitant” to include McNeil and are currently proposing right-hander Gerson Bautista in addition to Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce and Swarzak.

Obviously, that’d be a fairly substantial change to the deal’s perception; Bautista is a flamethrowing young righty with upside, but he’s yet to find success in the Majors or even the upper minors. McNeil, meanwhile, looked like a potential big league regular in his rookie season with the Mets this past season.

Puma had previously tweeted that McNeil wasn’t in the trade as of yesterday, though there’s “some thought that may have changed today,” so it seems as if the organization could be on the fence about whether to ultimately include the promising 26-year-old.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/significant-momentum-mets-trade-rumors-mariners-acquire-robinson-cano-edwin-diaz.html

[Black Watch]

Russell Martin Available On Trade Market

Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin is generating some degree of interest on the trade market, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (allTwitterlinks). The Jays are willing to pay a “significant” portion of the final $20MM on Martin’s contract, per Passan, and have already discussed him with other clubs.

He’ll make $20MM in the final season of a backloaded five-year, $82MM contract next season, and while his 15.9 percent walk rate was sensational, his overall .194/.338/.325 batting line leaves plenty to be desired. Martin was undoubtedly harmed by a .234 average on balls in play, but that’s perhaps not as unlucky as some might think at first glance.

While that .234 mark is well south of his career .283 BABIP, Martin saw his line-drive rate drop by nearly 10 percent this past season — from 23.7 percent in 2017 to 14 percent in 2018. He also posted a career-worst 19.4 percent infield-fly rate and hit the ball on the ground at a career-high 51.2 percent clip. For a 35-year-old catcher whose once-surprising speed has largely evaporated, that’s not a great trend.

Defensively, Martin’s once-excellent caught-stealing rate has waned over the past three seasons (22 percent in 2018 — six percent below the league average), but Baseball Prospectus still grades him as a premium framer and blocker.

As for demand, there’s no shortage of contenders or hopeful contenders who could use upgrades. The Dodgers, Astros, Rockies, Angels, Twins, Red Sox, Mets, Brewers and Phillies could all conceivably explore the market, as could a number of teams that are either in the midst of a rebuild or retooling process (e.g. Mariners, Tigers).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-trade-rumors-francisco-cervelli-russell-martin-pirates-blue-jays.html

[Tanner]

Martin could have started on any of the LCS teams this playoff season. I think he is movable, but I wouldn’t expect much back.

[Schad]

The Mets - Mariners trade is nuts. Two of the Mets' best prospects (both top 100), a lesser prospect and some deadweight salary, going to Seattle for an elite closer, plus the right to pay Robinson Cano through his 40th birthday. No idea what to make of that until it's known whether the Mariners are picking up a hefty part of Cano's deal.

[Schad]

Damn, was hoping we'd get him. $15M guarantee maxing out at $18M would have been well worth the gamble to have a guy of that calibre in 2020.

Preller is one of the best buy-low and worst buy-high GMs in the league.

[Cyrus]

The Mets - Mariners trade is nuts. Two of the Mets' best prospects (both top 100), a lesser prospect and some deadweight salary, going to Seattle for an elite closer, plus the right to pay Robinson Cano through his 40th birthday. No idea what to make of that until it's known whether the Mariners are picking up a hefty part of Cano's deal.

Even if they were to take like 80% of Cano salary, would it be a fair deal? lol

It would be like us giving up Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson or something.

[Schad]

Diaz is really, really good, and has four years of team control, and the prospects involved aren't quite Bichette/Pearson. It'd be a little light just for him without the Cano/junk salary complications, but Cano's deal is so bad and he's so damned old that it hangs over the whole thing.

Craig Edwards pegged it at about $18-24m that the Mariners would need to pick up over the course of the deal to make it worthwhile. I dunno; I'd probably err a bit more toward $40-50m. It's just hard to imagine the Wilpons continuing to spend big over an extended period, and with the benefits to this trade accruing toward the front end (where the Mets still need major work to be good) it probably tips the scales against absorbing so much money tied to one of the oldest regulars in baseball.

[polo007]

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