Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[brwnman]

So, in the unlikely event that his WRC reverts back to 77 and the unlikely event that his defence reverts to something like would be Michael Taylors, then he’ll be probably be non-tendered?

Ok…I guess.

Defense doesn't really come into the equation. A player that has a wRC+ of 77 generally doesn't get to the final year of Arb. That's a part-time player if he has defensive versatility/excellence.

Also, he's not "reverting" to something like Michael Taylor. Even by bWAR, Varsho's defense was worth 2.8 dWAR in 158 games last year. Michael A Taylor was worth 2.4dWAR in 124 games in 2022 in his age 31 season. They're similar.

[JTT]

I have no answer for Defense doesn’t come into the equation because, of course it does. Yes, defense is paid less than offence or more specifically power, but non factored? I think we’ll agree to disagree about that.

I would also think when a left fielder is able to compile a 2.8 WAR compared to a centre fielder having 2.4. We’re calling that similar? Would you call that similar if was offence? I think we’ll disagree on that as well.

[brwnman]

I have no answer for Defense doesn’t come into the equation because, of course it does. Yes, defense is paid less than offence or more specifically power, but non factored? I think we’ll agree to disagree about that.

I would also think when a left fielder is able to compile a 2.8 WAR compared to a centre fielder having 2.4. We’re calling that similar? Would you call that similar if was offence? I think we’ll disagree on that as well.

A player with a 77 wRC+ is a part-time/platoon player at that point. You're not going to be paying him 10-12M for one year. You can find defense first CF for less than that.

2.8 dWAR in 158 games versus 2.4dWAR in 124 games - hell yeah I'm calling it similar. That's 3.0 dWAR (or 3.1 rounded up in 158 games).

[Fairview4Life]

Well good news, Varsho is pretty good and won’t be non tendered.

[JTT]

Random thoughts and then I’m done with this discussion.

I guess I’m thick. Is the 77wrc+ an unlikely event…you know just for context? Because we’re not talking about anything factual. The actual wrc+ is 101. And if we’re talking about an unlikely event, how can the non-tender be probable? I mean, we can make the same argument about just about any player. If defence doesn’t matter and their wrc+ reverts to 77, then (name your player) will be non tendered. If we’re in that world, I agree with you, by the way.

I’d be shocked if there’s been a player in the history of baseball with a 4 war who got dfa’d…. Within the context of a modest salary of course.

Would you have non tendered Ozzie Smith? His offence was certainly never all that great. (One of my favorite players of all time, by the way).

Thanks for this. Go Jays

[brwnman]

Random thoughts and then I’m done with this discussion.

I guess I’m thick. Is the 77wrc+ an unlikely event…you know just for context? Because we’re not talking about anything factual. The actual wrc+ is 101. And if we’re talking about an unlikely event, how can the non-tender be probable?

If we’re talking about a world where defense doesn’t matter and the player has a wrc+ of 77, then I agree with you. But I just don’t know what world that is.

I’d be shocked if there’s been a player in the history of baseball with a 4 war who got dfa’d…. Within the context of a modest salary of course.


Thanks for the discussion.

The point wasn’t so much whether or not he’ll be non-tendered. But the original comment that started it was I said he’s closer to being non-tendered than being paid by a 5 WAR player (35M AAV based on your 2022 number earlier). At the time, I want to say his OPS+ was <85 (guessing here).

Then his wRC+ went to 77 and I doubled down saying if he continued hitting like this through 2025, he will be non-tendered before his final year of arb.

Also, not saying defense doesn’t matter. But to be clear, his defense wouldn’t have saved him from being non-tendered if he continued to hit at that pace.

[Fairview4Life]

He was not going to be non tendered even if he had stayed hitting that poorly. But, thankfully, he’s an average hitter.

[-MetA4-]

Here is an honest legit question for all those Varsho lovers…. Do you think he is even still an everyday player next year?

I think there is actually a chance he is traded this off season, but if not, he could become their 4th OF next year.. a .300 OBP and .700 OPS are the kinds of numbers that find most OF back on the minor leagues ffs. I think they need to try and trade both Springer and Varsho this off season. Or they need to improve the order 1-8 so they can hide Dalton in the 9 hole like they did with Kk last year.

The fact is, he is never going to win a SS or be an all-star. So he really isnt that valuable. … despite what WAR may try to lead you to believe.

Gabriel Moreno is the best defensive catcher to hot MLB since Yadier Molina. When healthy he is a 5 tool catcher, who has already been an all-star once.. and has many more in his future. This trade is still 100% a loss.

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[Madvillainy2004]

Varsho is gonna finish the season with like 3.5+ fWAR why are we talking about him being non-tendered? lmao

[-MetA4-]

Varsho is gonna finish the season with like 3.5+ fWAR why are we talking about him being non-tendered? lmao

Well if he hits for 70 wRC+ for nearly 2 straight seasons (something he has never done before, nor is there any reason to expect this as a likely outcome for him) then he will be non-tendered . Riveting stuff.

[Randle McMurphy]

Imagine hating Daulton Varsho being good so badly that you have to generate absurd hypotheticals in some kind of bizarre attempt to save face.

Couldn’t be me.

[s e n s i]

on to more likely scenarios, like garbiel moreno being C2 next year behind adrian del castillo, a player who can actually hit the ball to the warning track at a minimum

[Cyrus]

on to more likely scenarios, like garbiel moreno being C2 next year behind adrian del castillo, a player who can actually hit the ball to the warning track at a minimum

You could also say that for kirk... when last time kirk hit hr?

Is there anything offensive that kirk is doing better than poor Moreno?

We actually need a castillo on our team at very least next year other than relying on servn or insert scrub catcher.

[s e n s i]

on to more likely scenarios, like garbiel moreno being C2 next year behind adrian del castillo, a player who can actually hit the ball to the warning track at a minimum

You could also say that for kirk... when last time kirk hit hr?

Is there anything offensive that kirk is doing better than poor Moreno?

2 days ago dude

kirk has more HR per PA than moreno and probably gonna clear him in several offensive categories by the time the seasons over, not to mention being the better defensive catcher.

[Cyrus]

on to more likely scenarios, like garbiel moreno being C2 next year behind adrian del castillo, a player who can actually hit the ball to the warning track at a minimum

You could also say that for kirk... when last time kirk hit hr?

Is there anything offensive that kirk is doing better than poor Moreno?

2 days ago dude

kirk has more HR per PA than moreno and probably gonna clear him in several offensive categories by the time the seasons over, not to mention being the better defensive catcher.

Great, so he caught up to torrid hr pace that moreno has set.

291 abs vs 314 is negligible, is equivalent to 5 games or less

They both have 5 hrs, so you can say both are light slugging hitters, that barely hit to warning track.

This is by 2024 stats:

https://stathead.com/tiny/0LEU4

I don't see anything currently that kirk is doing better offensively maybe that'll change by end of season but so far isn't in the case.

If you compare the last 2 years, it gets even worse, only when you add kirk stats from 3 years ago, and moreno barely played (since he wasn't in the league) it skews the other way

[s e n s i]

You could also say that for kirk... when last time kirk hit hr?

Is there anything offensive that kirk is doing better than poor Moreno?

2 days ago dude

kirk has more HR per PA than moreno and probably gonna clear him in several offensive categories by the time the seasons over, not to mention being the better defensive catcher.

291 abs vs 314 is negligible, is equivalent to 5 games or less

They both have 5 hrs, so you can say both are light slugging hitters, that barely hit to warning track.

This is by 2024 stats:

https://stathead.com/tiny/0LEU4

I don't see anything currently that kirk is doing better offensively.

If you compare the last 2 years, it gets even worse, only when you add kirk stats from 3 years ago, and moreno barely played (since he wasn't in the league) it skews the other way

and still moreno has yet to put up a season comparable to kirk’s in 2022.

i know kirk is capable of a 4+ fWAR season, because he’s done it before. moreno hasn’t and won’t again this year. the dbacks FO has to be concerned with moreno’s wiffle ball bat and reservations about whether he can handle the demand of 120+ games behind the plate. probably won’t matter though with del castillo coming on.

[Cyrus]

2 days ago dude

kirk has more HR per PA than moreno and probably gonna clear him in several offensive categories by the time the seasons over, not to mention being the better defensive catcher.

291 abs vs 314 is negligible, is equivalent to 5 games or less

They both have 5 hrs, so you can say both are light slugging hitters, that barely hit to warning track.

This is by 2024 stats:

https://stathead.com/tiny/0LEU4

I don't see anything currently that kirk is doing better offensively.

If you compare the last 2 years, it gets even worse, only when you add kirk stats from 3 years ago, and moreno barely played (since he wasn't in the league) it skews the other way

and still moreno has yet to put up a season comparable to kirk’s in 2022.

i know kirk is capable of a 4+ fWAR season, because he’s done it before. moreno hasn’t and won’t again this year. the dbacks FO has to be concerned with moreno’s wiffle ball bat and reservations about whether he can handle the demand of 120+ games behind the plate. probably won’t matter though with del castillo coming on.

Kirk hasn't done in it 3 years basically and rightfully the Jays will be looking at getting a catcher to share the load because the Jays are still concerned that daily grinds of catching.

Kirk best season came when he was getting a good share at bats at dh, cause the Jays didn't think he could handle 3 to 4 games in row at catching or 8 out of 10. So yeah maybe kirk can recapture that 4+ f war again but it certainly won't be catching "everyday", cause to date they are still babying him, and it's because every time they have tried to play him daily at catcher his offensive numbers has trended down.

So I guess If we had castillo coming on kirk would be facing the same thing, cause statistically he's doing everything basically worse than moreno this year, hell we are playing servn cause they know kirk can't handle 120+ games behind the plate

[s e n s i]

at least we can all agree on something; it’s nice to have finally moved on from the moreno takes from last season:
- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

and that’s not even including some of the hilarious varsho or gurriel takes

instead the discourse is now focused on how moreno is comparable to alejandro kirk and some surreal chat about hypothetical scenarios where varsho hits so poorly for so long that he is eventually non-tendered.

[Randle McMurphy]

at least we can all agree on something; it’s nice to have finally moved on from the moreno takes from last season:
- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

and that’s not even including some of the hilarious varsho or gurriel takes

instead the discourse is now focused on how moreno is comparable to alejandro kirk and some surreal chat about hypothetical scenarios where varsho hits so poorly for so long that he is eventually non-tendered.

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[bartron_44]

The only thing comparable about Moreno and Kirk is the type of hitters they are. They are both high contact guys that need to produce a solid OBP instead of slugging 500+ in order to be valuable at the plate. Both have enough pop to hit it over the wall, but not enough to make HRs the focus of their approach. They are line drive hitters that use the entire field to produce solid batting averages.

However, we have the following slash lines this year in basically the same amount of pt:

kirk- .243/.315/.349 with 29 BB and 39 SO
Moreno- .262/.344/.386 with 34 BB and 45 SO

Moreno has 6 more extra base hits, is hitting 20 points higher in BA, and has 5 more BB. So he has the edge at the plate this year… again. Two years in a row with an OPS ~60 points higher than Kirk. Not to mention he isnt a plug every time he is in base, or one of the easiest to double up in all of baseball like Kirk is.

And then the defence…. I think some people here are in crack.. not myself as someone tried to say when I asked if Varsho would still start next year. Which, to be fair, I thought his RC+ was still down around 70 when i asked and not back to league average. So I think he will just be the new KK in the 9 hole next year manning CF. But as for Moreno vs Kirk defensively… I am Not even going to compare Kirk to the kid who just won the GG in the NL behind the plate as a rookie with an entirely new staff…. And had a pop time essentially the same as pudge in his prime in the minors.

There is a reason why Moreno was a top prospect in all of baseball before he was promoted, and why he won a GG last year. His tools are elite behind the plate. His career low in CS% is Kirk’s career high.

I give Kirk credit for improving his throwing, and being a great pitch framer. But I’d still take Moreno as my everyday catcher if I was an MLB GM trying to build a winning team. ( and that is even before you consider he is a year younger with more years of control.)

Maybe there is something I am not seeing, but to me the worst defensive player somehow has won the 3 way battle to be the starting catcher after this season. That alone is enough to make me believe this management just doesnt understand what it takes to win baseball games. The 3 positions on the field where defense trumps offense are C, SS and CF. They have been sacrificing defense at SS essentially since Bo came into the league ( other than maybe last year) and have pissed away a GG catcher they wouldnt have had to pay for essentially the entire next window.

The sad thing is, this team now needs the players they let walk away. How good would Moreno, a locked up Semien and a locked up Teo look in this lineup with KK in CF?