Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[PowerPlant1]

I am not talking days, but over 3 months of Varsho being one of the worst hitters in all of MLB this year, as he was below or around the Mendoza line, with a terrible OPS and On Base. Not forgetting how he was one of the worst hitting Outfielders in all of MLB, with his terrible OPS, BA, On Base last year.

Big difference struggling some days or even a couple of weeks, instead of 3 or 4 whole months. However, if he can keep doing what he is doing recently in August going forward the rest of the way and in 2025, then the trade discussion will be a lot different.

why aren’t you citing defensive WAR in any of your posts, though? seemed to love that stat last season and now suddenly it’s like you’ve forgotten all about it. weird.

Talking about WAR overall (not Defensive WAR), and the ridiculous way people worship it- Matt Chapman has a higher WAR right now than Vlad (5.9 vs. 5.4 for Vlad). Which GM in their right mind would take Matt Chapman over Vlad, simply because he has a higher WAR?

WAR in general is still heavily reliant on defense. Not talking about Defensive WAR over Offensive WAR which serve useful metrics to compare defensive and offensive numbers. I am not saying ignore WAR all together, but you cannot worship WAR as the be all and end all to compare players. Just like RBI's to me which are overrated to compare also. Just my perspective, even though others love WAR and see things differently.

Yes and this trade is not only about WAR even if WAR was exactly what it is claiming to be or what others are claiming it to be, which is a true indicator of the value of a player.

Which in my opinion it is not, because earlier in the year, I pointed out that although Gurriel has almost every hitting stat except baserunning higher than Varsho, yet Varsho was even given a higher offensive WAR as showing how ludicrous that stat can be.

Further, we have this article from Shulman whose rating of Atkins is "not great" and he points out the Varsho deal as one major factor. Specifically the Varsho deal as well as trading away Teoscar Hernandez in the same offseason was a bit too much overcompensation towards defense.

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/shulman-blunt-opinion-on-blue-jays

The above article is not about the fact that Varsho is a terrible player. More that the pendulum swung towards less offense and more defense and now in order to compensate the other way, it stands to reason that Vlad will have to be given lots of money because the Jays need his offense badly.

All this suggests that WAR is not the whole story when evaluating this trade. Especially current WAR comparisons.

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

[bartron_44]

To be clear, I like Varsho as a player, I just hate that trade. They could have traded any other prospect in their system along with Gurriel other than their top prospect (who was also one of the top specs in all of baseball) and they could have survived. But most people who hate the trade hated it long before Moreno won a GG and then had his playoff run. We hated it the moment it was announced. The GG and playoff run were just salt in the wound.

[s e n s i]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

mama there goes that man

[Fairview4Life]

To be clear, I like Varsho as a player, I just hate that trade. They could have traded any other prospect in their system along with Gurriel other than their top prospect (who was also one of the top specs in all of baseball) and they could have survived. But most people who hate the trade hated it long before Moreno won a GG and then had his playoff run. We hated it the moment it was announced. The GG and playoff run were just salt in the wound.

Then Varsho being the better player must make you feel better about the deal, no?

[-MetA4-]

Which in my opinion it is not, because earlier in the year, I pointed out that although Gurriel has almost every hitting stat except baserunning higher than Varsho, yet Varsho was even given a higher offensive WAR as showing how ludicrous that stat can be.

Have you considered that people much smarter than yourself have put more thought into the formulation of what constitutes "offensive WAR" than you yourself have? That they potentially have a deeper understanding of the statistical values at play?

Could that possibly be it? Or are we going to land on: "I don't like the result of what this stat is suggesting to me, therefore it is ludicrous".

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

[DreamTeam09]

Tbh I haven't been keeping up with Moreno this yr, how is he doing?
Glad Varso found some pop that looks sustainable

[-MetA4-]

Tbh I haven't been keeping up with Moreno this yr, how is he doing?

He has missed the entire past month with injury.

Moreno: 104 wRC+
Varsho: 102 wRC+

Varsho is the better defender and baserunner. They have basically equal hitting value at this point after Varsho's sustained resurgence at the plate (118 wRC+ since the All-Star break).

Moreno is a good player, but with Kirk re-emerging as an above-average starting catcher there should be no more argument as to the validity of the trade. But of course, I'm sure one of the usual suspects is going to jump in to point out that we lost the trade because Moreno won the Gold Glove last season - as if that is supposed to mean something exquisite.

[DreamTeam09]

Tbh I haven't been keeping up with Moreno this yr, how is he doing?

He has missed the entire past month with injury.

Moreno: 104 wRC+
Varsho: 102 wRC+

Varsho is the better defender and baserunner. They have basically equal hitting value at this point after Varsho's sustained resurgence at the plate (118 wRC+ since the All-Star break).

Moreno is a good player, but with Kirk re-emerging as an above-average starting catcher there should be no more argument as to the validity of the trade. But of course, I'm sure one of the usual suspects is going to jump in to point out that we lost the trade because Moreno won the Gold Glove last season - as if that is supposed to mean something exquisite.

I saw the vision with that they were doing in that trade, maybe they didn't value Moreno highly enough, or rated Varsho too high, but a young elite defensive outfielder with some pop is valuable.

I no longer have faith in mgmt but it's not because of this one deal

[johanliebert]

Read on Twitter

Pillar was drafted in the 28th round. when was he ever revered here? fans loved his diving catches but nothing more.

[PowerPlant1]

Which in my opinion it is not, because earlier in the year, I pointed out that although Gurriel has almost every hitting stat except baserunning higher than Varsho, yet Varsho was even given a higher offensive WAR as showing how ludicrous that stat can be.

Have you considered that people much smarter than yourself have put more thought into the formulation of what constitutes "offensive WAR" than you yourself have? That they potentially have a deeper understanding of the statistical values at play?

Could that possibly be it? Or are we going to land on: "I don't like the result of what this stat is suggesting to me, therefore it is ludicrous".

I had considered it. Likely considered it much more than you considered your proposal that we won the Varsho deal because Arizona developed a better catcher than Moreno in year 2.

Anyway, if we're talking about a stat that proposes to represent the ultimate value of a player, then it had better be rock solid in validity so if I and others show some WAR results that produce head scratching, then perhaps the nerds got something wrong.

For instance, this smart guy proposes that WAR's defensive value is inflated by (surprise surprise) looking at concrete examples: https://seamheads.com/blog/2019/02/17/a-problem-with-war-defensive-value/

Also, if you or others want to use WAR as the sole criteria for trades, why not just trade Vlad for another Varsho type player? After all isn't Varsho the team's WAR MVP this year?

Problem is you can have a high WAR team made up of defensive specialists. Higher WAR in a trade doesn't help an offensively challenged team if your oWAR goes down and dWAR goes up for instance. Offense also has to be given the greatest priority because you need runs to win and defense to stay in games/keep leads. But WAR equates hit runs and fielded runs in a way contrary to that truth. And finally, oWAR has a baserunning segment to it so it can be inflated by getting a speedster even if hit runs goes down in a trade (so using oWAR to say a trade was won may not be true either unless the team was slow).

The fact you are happy with Varsho and Kirk occupying roster spots in the future when one or both may be offensive liabilities is concerning. Kirk's ops this and last year sucks. It's worse than Springer and according to baseball savant, Kirk is in the 16th percentile in batting run value.

It's important not to get lost in WAR when evaluating a trade. You can take it into account but not let it occupy the whole picture.

[raptorforlife88]

Kirk is also underperforming his expected hitting numbers. Vlad was as well earlier this year and last year, and now his numbers match up, so I expect Kirk will be a better hitter next year.

Also it's fine to have less valuable hitters at catcher and CF cause they can accumulate excellent defensive value. Varsho takes away hits all the time, he is not just an elite defender, he is literally the best defender in baseball and that is going to have significant value even if you disagree with the extent of that value.

Also Moreno's value is also significantly tied to his defense which has been really good this year, so if you're complaining about Varsho accumulating his value through defense, then you've gotta do the same for Moreno. In which case it is incredibly pointless to be annoyed at a trade that you can basically look at as even.

[mini]

At this point, would either team want to reverse the trade? I feel like both teams are fine with it (at least the Varsho/Moreno pieces).

Maybe because we had to deal Jansen changes our C outlook a bit, but us being sellers at the deadline was not expected.

[Natural11]

At this point, would either team want to reverse the trade? I feel like both teams are fine with it (at least the Varsho/Moreno pieces).

Maybe because we had to deal Jansen changes our C outlook a bit, but us being sellers at the deadline was not expected.

I can't imagine the D-Backs would want to reverse the trade

If Moreno stays healthy, he could be an all-star for the next 10 years. Varsho is is an amazing defender, but isn't hitting higher than 9th on any decent team. Also factor in that Kirk is badly out of shape and probably won't age well.

Both are valuable players. If I was drafting a team for 2025 and it was one or the other, it's Moreno without a second thought.

[Duffman100]

At this point, would either team want to reverse the trade? I feel like both teams are fine with it (at least the Varsho/Moreno pieces).

Maybe because we had to deal Jansen changes our C outlook a bit, but us being sellers at the deadline was not expected.

I can't imagine the D-Backs would want to reverse the trade

If Moreno stays healthy, he could be an all-star for the next 10 years.

Interesting, I'm curious if this is true.

[Fairview4Life]

At this point, would either team want to reverse the trade? I feel like both teams are fine with it (at least the Varsho/Moreno pieces).

Maybe because we had to deal Jansen changes our C outlook a bit, but us being sellers at the deadline was not expected.

I can't imagine the D-Backs would want to reverse the trade :lol:

If Moreno stays healthy, he could be an all-star for the next 10 years.

Interesting, I'm curious if this is true.

It’s only true if he somehow hits like he did in the playoffs last year all the time. Del Castillo is going to give them a Kirk decision soon, since he has been outplaying Moreno in the small sample he’s gotten.

[PowerPlant1]

Kirk is also underperforming his expected hitting numbers. Vlad was as well earlier this year and last year, and now his numbers match up, so I expect Kirk will be a better hitter next year.

Also it's fine to have less valuable hitters at catcher and CF cause they can accumulate excellent defensive value. Varsho takes away hits all the time, he is not just an elite defender, he is literally the best defender in baseball and that is going to have significant value even if you disagree with the extent of that value.

Also Moreno's value is also significantly tied to his defense which has been really good this year, so if you're complaining about Varsho accumulating his value through defense, then you've gotta do the same for Moreno. In which case it is incredibly pointless to be annoyed at a trade that you can basically look at as even.

It's not even. Not with year 1 taken into account. Your conclusion is based on one point of analysis.

To the last point, no, Moreno is not comparable to Varsho. On savant, Moreno is an above average hitter, Varsho below. Varsho's defense to offense ratio is greater than Moreno's making Moreno the more well rounded player.

Not needing offense at C and CF is a good point but only for a team that has offensive pieces around it. The Jays can't afford just defensive value at those positions. That's why Moreno's 729 ops would be favorable.

What are kirk's expected hitting #s? He's been poor offensively for two seasons in a row so will he ever be the 2022 version? Also, Varsho's recent batting has placed him 35th percentile in savant. It's still better than year 1 and he could get back to average but he's not doing what he did in AZ and that is the offense that was at least hoped for.

Both Kirk and Varsho were relied to be better than they are offensively. Therefore, your point about C and CF being predominantly for defensive value is answered by saying: not on this team.

Also, the fact that the manager or FO continues to bat Varsho 2nd and Kirk 4th possibly means: A) We have no one better which is a concern. B) They see them as offensive cornerstones and will give them important batting order spots no matter what. Either is a problem but why bat the C and CF high in the order if these are defensive players?

Atkins is to blame. Too much offensive depletion for a lineup, as another put it, that used to strike fear in opposing pitchers.

[Natural11]

It’s only true if he somehow hits like he did in the playoffs last year all the time. Del Castillo is going to give them a Kirk decision soon, since he has been outplaying Moreno in the small sample he’s gotten.

It's a great problem for them to have, but they will likely have to choose one soon to maximize their value. I thought we had an embarrassment of riches at the Catcher position not that long ago. Fast forward a couple of years and we're watching Brian Severn out there blowing games on one knee like a jabroni.

In any case, they have a more valuable piece to work with in Moreno than Varsho, who has hit below .200 in 4/6 months so far in 2024.

[Fairview4Life]

It’s easier to find a Moreno replacement at C than it is a Varsho replacement in CF. Even if we take last years Moreno numbers which were heavily weighted by Arizona’s pitcher era. Moreno is not the guy some people seem to think he is. If he hits like he did in the playoffs last year, sure. But everyday Moreno has been replaceable by most metrics.