Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Fairview4Life]

Arizona just barely missed the playoffs.

Varsho top 15 player? LMAO. C'mon this is ridiculous at this point. The whole support is that garbage stat.

The garbage stat is using team success in baseball as a judge of individual players value. It's 2024, not 1962. Using your silly stat, the Diamondbacks were 43-40 when Moreno started (50-47 in all his appearances). They were 39-26 in the games he didn't play at all. So I assume you're very much not a fan of Moreno now, since he is clearly a drag on Arizona winning and might have single-handedly cost them a trip to the playoffs?

[Fairview4Life]

Arizona missed Moreno for nearly 6 weeks in August, after he was one of the better hitters in the NL in the month of July..

Great point, now to take a big sip of tea and look at stats of the hitter who replaced him for most of August - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=delcaad01&year=2024&t=b

Yeah they really missed Moreno's hitting in August, even though the guy who replaced him hit significantly better than Moreno did in July and they went 12-5 in those games and 15-8 overall in post Moreno injury August. How many more wins was Moreno's worse hitting going to lead them to? It sure doesn't look like Moreno's injury cost them (m)any games to me.

Also, speaking of good hitting months, Varsho had relatively comparable months to Moreno's July in March/April and August.

[Fairview4Life]

Arizona just barely missed the playoffs.

Varsho top 15 player? LMAO. C'mon this is ridiculous at this point. The whole support is that garbage stat.

Arizona missed Moreno for nearly 6 weeks in August, after he was one of the better hitters in the NL in the month of July, and Gurriel missed three weeks in September. Their manager just said last week that having those two on the injured list for extended times unfortunately messed up their season.

Gurriel still had a solid year overall, and Moreno ended up with a higher OPS than Kirk and the Top 15 Superstar Varsho. If Atkins would call up Arizona this off-season, and offered them Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno, Arizona would laugh and hang up the phone in seconds. In fairness to Randle, Varsho is a Top 15 MLB player if you ignore all the hitting and on base statistics.

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Combined with being the best defensive player in baseball, that makes him a more valuable player than the also ~league average hitter in Moreno.

[Raps in 4]

Arizona missed Moreno for nearly 6 weeks in August, after he was one of the better hitters in the NL in the month of July, and Gurriel missed three weeks in September. Their manager just said last week that having those two on the injured list for extended times unfortunately messed up their season.

Gurriel still had a solid year overall, and Moreno ended up with a higher OPS than Kirk and the Top 15 Superstar Varsho. If Atkins would call up Arizona this off-season, and offered them Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno, Arizona would laugh and hang up the phone in seconds. In fairness to Randle, Varsho is a Top 15 MLB player if you ignore all the hitting and on base statistics.

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Combined with being the best defensive player in baseball, that makes him a more valuable player than the also ~league average hitter in Moreno.

Sure (although we're ignoring that Moreno is also an elite defensive catcher), but Varsho is four years older and has just two years of control left (the FO wasted two full seasons after making this "win-now" trade). The DBacks have four more years of Moreno.

This trade could end up being a wash for both teams, something I've always maintained. Trading your top prospect for a player that gives you similar production and with fewer years of control isn't a win. Varsho did nothing to help this team win more games (we've performed worse as a team each season after the trade) so the idea that we traded from a position of strength for a position of need doesn't hold much water. This team needed an infusion of talent, not a swap of talent.

[Fairview4Life]

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Combined with being the best defensive player in baseball, that makes him a more valuable player than the also ~league average hitter in Moreno.

Sure (although we're ignoring that Moreno is also an elite defensive catcher), but Varsho is four years older and has just two years of control left (the FO wasted two full seasons after making this "win-now" trade). The DBacks have four more years of Moreno.

This trade could end up being a wash for both teams, something I've always maintained. Trading your top prospect for a player that gives you similar production and with fewer years of control isn't a win. Varsho did nothing to help this team win more games (we've performed worse as a team each season after the trade) so the idea that we traded from a position of strength for a position of need doesn't hold much water. This team needed an infusion of talent, not a swap of talent.

Moreno would not be Moreno here though, since Kirk is a better defensive catcher and (had been) a better hitter. The only real problem with this trade is Kirk (like many of our players) seemingly forgetting how to hit for like a year.

[Randle McMurphy]

I can't check bWAR since they paywalled all their sortable stats, but I suspect he isn't top-15 there either.

Paywall? Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-value-batting.shtml

Varsho ended the year 17th in WAR despite missing the bulk of the last month of the year to injury (and playing through an injury presumably for most of the season before that). He's very clearly a top 15 player in the game.

What a coup to get one of the most valuable players in baseball for a guy who would be no more than a backup to a superior C in Kirk.

[Randle McMurphy]

Arizona just barely missed the playoffs.

Varsho top 15 player? LMAO. C'mon this is ridiculous at this point. The whole support is that garbage stat.

Arizona missed Moreno for nearly 6 weeks in August, after he was one of the better hitters in the NL in the month of July, and Gurriel missed three weeks in September. Their manager just said last week that having those two on the injured list for extended times unfortunately messed up their season.

Gurriel still had a solid year overall, and Moreno ended up with a higher OPS than Kirk and the Top 15 Superstar Varsho. If Atkins would call up Arizona this off-season, and offered them Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno, Arizona would laugh and hang up the phone in seconds. In fairness to Randle, Varsho is a Top 15 MLB player if you ignore all the hitting and on base statistics.

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Read on Twitter

[Raps in 4]

I can't check bWAR since they paywalled all their sortable stats, but I suspect he isn't top-15 there either.

Paywall? Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-value-batting.shtml

Varsho ended the year 17th in WAR despite missing the bulk of the last month of the year to injury (and playing through an injury presumably for most of the season before that). He's very clearly a top 15 player in the game.

What a coup to get one of the most valuable players in baseball for a guy who would be no more than a backup to a superior C in Kirk.

Matt Chapman is the 7th best position player in baseball according to bWAR (one could argue that bWAR over-emphasizes defensive value). I distinctly remember you having a hate boner for him last year.

[brwnman]

Combined with being the best defensive player in baseball, that makes him a more valuable player than the also ~league average hitter in Moreno.

maybe if you keep incorrectly calling him the best defensive player in baseball; it'll come true. Not even the best defensive Outfielder.

Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players:

Ironic

[Raps in 4]

Arizona missed Moreno for nearly 6 weeks in August, after he was one of the better hitters in the NL in the month of July, and Gurriel missed three weeks in September. Their manager just said last week that having those two on the injured list for extended times unfortunately messed up their season.

Gurriel still had a solid year overall, and Moreno ended up with a higher OPS than Kirk and the Top 15 Superstar Varsho. If Atkins would call up Arizona this off-season, and offered them Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno, Arizona would laugh and hang up the phone in seconds. In fairness to Randle, Varsho is a Top 15 MLB player if you ignore all the hitting and on base statistics.

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Read on Twitter

99 wRC+

He is quite literally one point below an average MLB hitter.

[Randle McMurphy]

I can't check bWAR since they paywalled all their sortable stats, but I suspect he isn't top-15 there either.

Paywall? Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-value-batting.shtml

Varsho ended the year 17th in WAR despite missing the bulk of the last month of the year to injury (and playing through an injury presumably for most of the season before that). He's very clearly a top 15 player in the game.

What a coup to get one of the most valuable players in baseball for a guy who would be no more than a backup to a superior C in Kirk.

Matt Chapman is the 7th best position player in baseball according to bWAR (one could argue that bWAR over-emphasizes defensive value). I distinctly remember you having a hate boner for him last year.

Because he's a massive choker (which he still was and has been for 5+ years running; he had a 71 wRC+ in high leverage this year, 65 wRC+ in 2023, 49 wRC+ in 2022, 94 wRC+ in 2021, 60 wRC+ in 2020), not because he wasn't a good player.

There's no question that Chapman has been overall a very valuable player for most of his career despite **** his pants in any pressure situation. Unclear what that has to do with Varsho clearly being one of the best players in baseball.

[Randle McMurphy]

Varsho was almost a league average hitter this year!

Read on Twitter

99 wRC+

He is quite literally one point below an average MLB hitter.

While playing with a torn rotator cuff all season. Despite that, he still managed to be a top 15 player in the game due to his generationally good defense in the OF.

[Raps in 4]

Read on Twitter

99 wRC+

He is quite literally one point below an average MLB hitter.

While playing with a torn rotator cuff all season. Despite that, he still managed to be a top 15 player in the game due to his generationally good defense in the OF.

85 wRC+ during a healthy 2023 season. He peaked as a 106 wRC+ hitter.

It's almost as if being an unproductive hitter is his norm.

[Randle McMurphy]

99 wRC+

He is quite literally one point below an average MLB hitter.

While playing with a torn rotator cuff all season. Despite that, he still managed to be a top 15 player in the game due to his generationally good defense in the OF.

85 wRC+ during a healthy 2023. He peaked as a 106 wRC+ hitter.

It's almost as if being an unproductive hitter is his norm.

100 wRC+ in 2021, 106 wRC+ in 2022, 85 wRC+ in 2023, and 99 wRC+ in 2024.

Seems pretty clear which of those is the aberration, no?

[Raps in 4]

While playing with a torn rotator cuff all season. Despite that, he still managed to be a top 15 player in the game due to his generationally good defense in the OF.

85 wRC+ during a healthy 2023. He peaked as a 106 wRC+ hitter.

It's almost as if being an unproductive hitter is his norm.

100 wRC+ in 2021, 106 wRC+ in 2022, 85 wRC+ in 2023, and 99 wRC+ in 2024.

Seems pretty clear which of those is the aberration, no?

My point was that this phantom "rotator cuff" injury didn't hold him back. He's been a league average (at best) hitter his entire career.

[Randle McMurphy]

85 wRC+ during a healthy 2023. He peaked as a 106 wRC+ hitter.

It's almost as if being an unproductive hitter is his norm.

100 wRC+ in 2021, 106 wRC+ in 2022, 85 wRC+ in 2023, and 99 wRC+ in 2024.

Seems pretty clear which of those is the aberration, no?

My point was that this phantom "rotator cuff" injury didn't hold him back. He's been a league average (at best) hitter his entire career.

How do we know he wasn't in for a career year without the torn rotator cuff?

In any case, fortunately a league average offensive player who also plays generationally good outfield defense is one of the most valuable players in baseball. And fortunately we got him for a guy who would still be #2 on the depth chart at his position on our team.

[Randle McMurphy]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Worth pointing out that our MVP Varsho was 3rd in the league in clutch situations this year. The anti-Chapman.

[Mehar]

85 wRC+ during a healthy 2023. He peaked as a 106 wRC+ hitter.

It's almost as if being an unproductive hitter is his norm.

100 wRC+ in 2021, 106 wRC+ in 2022, 85 wRC+ in 2023, and 99 wRC+ in 2024.

Seems pretty clear which of those is the aberration, no?

My point was that this phantom "rotator cuff" injury didn't hold him back. He's been a league average (at best) hitter his entire career.

Varsho was healthy for the 2023 season, and was one of the worst hitting regular players in all of MLB with his number of plate appearances, and finished with an atrocious .674 OPS, and garbage BA, SLG, and On Base numbers.

The man is a great defender, but that does not automatically translate him being a Top 15 Player with his pathetic hitting stats for 2024. Varsho is also tied for 24th in WAR (5.1) for this year, and even that still does not translate into being a Top 15 player.

[PushDaRock]

I can't check bWAR since they paywalled all their sortable stats, but I suspect he isn't top-15 there either.

Paywall? Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-value-batting.shtml

Varsho ended the year 17th in WAR despite missing the bulk of the last month of the year to injury (and playing through an injury presumably for most of the season before that). He's very clearly a top 15 player in the game.

What a coup to get one of the most valuable players in baseball for a guy who would be no more than a backup to a superior C in Kirk.

Matt Chapman is the 7th best position player in baseball according to bWAR (one could argue that bWAR over-emphasizes defensive value). I distinctly remember you having a hate boner for him last year.

Everyone knows you keep switching between using bWAR and fWAR depending on which one helps fit your narrative better.

[brwnman]

Paywall? Your internet skills seem to be as bad as your ability to recognize the value in players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-value-batting.shtml

Varsho ended the year 17th in WAR despite missing the bulk of the last month of the year to injury (and playing through an injury presumably for most of the season before that). He's very clearly a top 15 player in the game.

What a coup to get one of the most valuable players in baseball for a guy who would be no more than a backup to a superior C in Kirk.

Matt Chapman is the 7th best position player in baseball according to bWAR (one could argue that bWAR over-emphasizes defensive value). I distinctly remember you having a hate boner for him last year.

Everyone knows you keep switching between using bWAR and fWAR depending on which one helps fit your narrative better.

seems relevant to quote bWAR here - that's the stat overvaluing Varsho because of DRS. OAA is a better stat for OFs.

Everyone is going to pick and choose stats that help them frame their arguments. There is no perfect stat.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Worth pointing out that our MVP Varsho was 3rd in the league in clutch situations this year. The anti-Chapman.

Also worth pointing out, Varsho's context neutral wins/situational wins (WPA/LI) is below average. So don't let SSS make you think he's a good (or even an average) hitter; or let bWAR fool you into thinking Varsho is a top 15 player - it only accounts for a small subset of plays defensively and heavily influenced by DRS for defensive value. That's why there a 1.6 difference between fWAR and bWAR for Varsho.