Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Randle McMurphy]

Matt Chapman is the 7th best position player in baseball according to bWAR (one could argue that bWAR over-emphasizes defensive value). I distinctly remember you having a hate boner for him last year.

Everyone knows you keep switching between using bWAR and fWAR depending on which one helps fit your narrative better.

seems relevant to quote bWAR here - that's the stat overvaluing Varsho because of DRS. OAA is a better stat for OFs.

Everyone is going to pick and choose stats that help them frame their arguments. There is no perfect stat.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Worth pointing out that our MVP Varsho was 3rd in the league in clutch situations this year. The anti-Chapman.

Also worth pointing out, Varsho's context neutral wins/situational wins (WPA/LI) is below average. So don't let SSS make you think he's a good (or even an average) hitter; or let bWAR fool you into thinking Varsho is a top 15 player - it only accounts for a small subset of plays defensively and heavily influenced by DRS for defensive value. That's why there a 1.6 difference between fWAR and bWAR for Varsho.

Read on Twitter

If anything Varsho is being undervalued because the Jays played him in LF for no good reason for a large portion of the year. Might he actually be a top 10 player?

#JustaLeftFielder

[brwnman]

Everyone knows you keep switching between using bWAR and fWAR depending on which one helps fit your narrative better.

seems relevant to quote bWAR here - that's the stat overvaluing Varsho because of DRS. OAA is a better stat for OFs.

Everyone is going to pick and choose stats that help them frame their arguments. There is no perfect stat.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Worth pointing out that our MVP Varsho was 3rd in the league in clutch situations this year. The anti-Chapman.

Also worth pointing out, Varsho's context neutral wins/situational wins (WPA/LI) is below average. So don't let SSS make you think he's a good (or even an average) hitter; or let bWAR fool you into thinking Varsho is a top 15 player - it only accounts for a small subset of plays defensively and heavily influenced by DRS for defensive value. That's why there a 1.6 difference between fWAR and bWAR for Varsho.

Read on Twitter

If anything Varsho is being undervalued because the Jays played him in LF for no good reason for a large portion of the year. Might he actually be a top 10 player?

#JustaLeftFielder

CF 2% success rate added with 5 OAA
LF 8% success rate added with 10 OAA

Looks like someone is a better defensive LF than he is a CF.

[Madvillainy2004]

This discussion is really funny cause Moreno has been nothing special at all lmao. He had 0.1 fWAR more than Kirk last year. And like I said his bWAR plummeted because he obviously wasn't gonna replicate his pitcher ERA again. Moreno being our best prospect is irrelevant there were red flags despite his #1 baseball America ranking.

[Randle McMurphy]

seems relevant to quote bWAR here - that's the stat overvaluing Varsho because of DRS. OAA is a better stat for OFs.

Everyone is going to pick and choose stats that help them frame their arguments. There is no perfect stat.



Also worth pointing out, Varsho's context neutral wins/situational wins (WPA/LI) is below average. So don't let SSS make you think he's a good (or even an average) hitter; or let bWAR fool you into thinking Varsho is a top 15 player - it only accounts for a small subset of plays defensively and heavily influenced by DRS for defensive value. That's why there a 1.6 difference between fWAR and bWAR for Varsho.

Read on Twitter

If anything Varsho is being undervalued because the Jays played him in LF for no good reason for a large portion of the year. Might he actually be a top 10 player?

#JustaLeftFielder

CF 2% success rate added with 5 OAA
LF 8% success rate added with 10 OAA

Looks like someone is a better defensive LF than he is a CF.

Who wouldn’t be? It’s a far easier position to play.

Doesn’t change the fact that Varsho was actually undervalued by the Jays playing him in LF when he’s an elite defensive CF.

[Randle McMurphy]

This discussion is really funny cause Moreno has been nothing special at all lmao. He had 0.1 fWAR more than Kirk last year. And like I said his bWAR plummeted because he obviously wasn't gonna replicate his pitcher ERA again. Moreno being our best prospect is irrelevant there were red flags despite his #1 baseball America ranking.

And yet some here couldn’t hide their happiness when Varsho got hurt if only to make sure he just outperformed him by 3 WAR rather than 4 WAR this year. Sad.

[Raps in 4]

This discussion is really funny cause Moreno has been nothing special at all lmao. He had 0.1 fWAR more than Kirk last year. And like I said his bWAR plummeted because he obviously wasn't gonna replicate his pitcher ERA again. Moreno being our best prospect is irrelevant there were red flags despite his #1 baseball America ranking.

Moreno's WAR plummeted because he missed 65 games.

I never cared much for Moreno as a prospect. I cared that we didn't package him for a better player than 2015 Kevin Pillar.

Trading for a defensive specialist is fine to round out a roster. It's not fine when your roster is full of holes on the offensive end.

[Madvillainy2004]

This discussion is really funny cause Moreno has been nothing special at all lmao. He had 0.1 fWAR more than Kirk last year. And like I said his bWAR plummeted because he obviously wasn't gonna replicate his pitcher ERA again. Moreno being our best prospect is irrelevant there were red flags despite his #1 baseball America ranking.

Moreno's WAR plummeted because he missed 65 games.

I never cared much for Moreno as a prospect. I cared that we didn't package him for a better player than 2015 Kevin Pillar.

Trading for a defensive specialist is fine to round out a roster. It's not fine when your roster is full of holes on the offensive end.

You do know he only played 111 games last year right? He had 3.1 dBWAR and this year it was 1.4, he was not pulling out 1.7 defensive war in 14 games lol. We dont know what packages were out there for Moreno, Varsho made sense considering the 2022 teams weaknesses at the time. Chapman, Vlad, Springer, and Kirk all fell off offensively in 2023 unexpectedly it was tough to know they would be a bad offensive team after 2022 just because Gurriell and Teo weren't around.

Regardless this trade is so inconsequential to the outlook of the team, if we traded for say Bryan Reynolds we would still suck lol and Kirk has been just as valuable as Moreno since the trade so I'm not sure why this is some all-time fleece.

[Randle McMurphy]

This discussion is really funny cause Moreno has been nothing special at all lmao. He had 0.1 fWAR more than Kirk last year. And like I said his bWAR plummeted because he obviously wasn't gonna replicate his pitcher ERA again. Moreno being our best prospect is irrelevant there were red flags despite his #1 baseball America ranking.

Moreno's WAR plummeted because he missed 65 games.

I never cared much for Moreno as a prospect. I cared that we didn't package him for a better player than 2015 Kevin Pillar.

Trading for a defensive specialist is fine to round out a roster. It's not fine when your roster is full of holes on the offensive end.

You do know he only played 111 games last year right? He had 3.1 dBWAR and this year it was 1.4, he was not pulling out 1.7 defensive war in 14 games lol. We dont know what packages were out there for Moreno, Varsho made sense considering the 2022 teams weaknesses at the time. Chapman, Vlad, Springer, and Kirk all fell off offensively in 2023 unexpectedly it was tough to know they would be a bad offensive team after 2022 just because Gurriell and Teo weren't around.

Regardless this trade is so inconsequential to the outlook of the team, if we traded for say Bryan Reynolds we would still suck lol and Kirk has been just as valuable as Moreno since the trade so I'm not sure why this is some all-time fleece.

It’s looking like an all-time fleece for the Jays more than anything, Varsho outperformed the fraud he was traded for this year by nearly 3 WAR (and they retained the better catcher)

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

#JustaLeftFielder

[Mehar]

Moreno, Gurriel, and Varsho are all finalists for the Gold Glove. Well deserved for all three guys.

[bartron_44]

Good thing we traded away a couple GG caliber all-stars when we were trying to win with run prevention… lmao. Also, even with the lower fWAR, Moreno was still viewed as one of the best defensive catchers in the NL

I know Varsho is a lefty, but that lineup in 2015 was pretty right handed, as well as the lineup in 2021. It didnt stop them from scorin a shyte tonne of runs.

You need to accumulate all-stars to win in the AL East and in the postseason, and they lost that trade 2-0. They traded away 2 all-stars and got back 0. Varsho may win a GG, but I dont see him ever sniffing an all-star game. So anyone who sees that as a fleecing for the Jays needs to snap out from of it. His DRS is nice, but he wasnt even the best CF in this roster until they traded away KK. So was that really a trade that made this team better? It definitely made Arizona better the last 2 years, but that trade hasnt helped the Jays at all.

[Randle McMurphy]

Moreno, Gurriel, and Varsho are all finalists for the Gold Glove. Well deserved for all three guys.

Read on Twitter

And yet the voters ignored the best defensive catcher in the game.

[Mehar]

Good thing we traded away a couple GG caliber all-stars when we were trying to win with run prevention… lmao. Also, even with the lower fWAR, Moreno was still viewed as one of the best defensive catchers in the NL

I know Varsho is a lefty, but that lineup in 2015 was pretty right handed, as well as the lineup in 2021. It didnt stop them from scorin a shyte tonne of runs.

You need to accumulate all-stars to win in the AL East and in the postseason, and they lost that trade 2-0. They traded away 2 all-stars and got back 0. Varsho may win a GG, but I dont see him ever sniffing an all-star game. So anyone who sees that as a fleecing for the Jays needs to snap out from of it. His DRS is nice, but he wasnt even the best CF in this roster until they traded away KK. So was that really a trade that made this team better? It definitely made Arizona better the last 2 years, but that trade hasnt helped the Jays at all.

The Arizona beat writer said in August, that the Diamondbacks would not even trade Gurriel for Varsho straight up 1 for 1 right now. Gurriel has solidified himself as a very good defensive Left Fielder, and Moreno has 4 seasons left of cost control at a premium Catching position.

Great trade by Arizona to get 2 Gold Glove finalists and above average hitters, as opposed to a guy like Varsho who was struggling to consistently hit over .200 for almost 4 months of the baseball season. Congrats again to Moreno, Gurriel, and Varsho for being Gold Glove finalists.

[Fairview4Life]

Gold gloves are not indicative of good defense. Moreno isn’t really deserving this year, and is only a finalist because he won last year. Varsho not winning last year and Kirk not being a finalist this year are a couple other examples.

[bartron_44]

GGs are nice, but what you really need to worry about acquiring are all-star caliber players. And you dont make all-star teams these days on your defense. You make it with your bat. Sure you need to also have a solid defense (especially up the middle), but what you really need are 9+ solid hitters so you arent giving away outs in September.



Over 162 games you can rely on 4 or 5 guys to be the bulk of your offense, but in a 3, 5 or even 7 game series against the best pitching staffs with mangers being uber aggressive with their bullpens…..every out is precious. A lot of teams can effectively shorten the game to 6 innings with the stuff in mlb bullpens these days. If you have 3 or 4 easy outs in your lineup, you are basically trying to score in the playoffs using 12 of your 27 outs. If a couple of your good hitters have off games, you are likely scoring 2 runs or less.

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

What a player. What a trade.

[s e n s i]

“non tender candidate” lmfao

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

#JustaLeftFielder

[Duffman100]

nice, congrats Varsho!

[GoRapstheoriginal]

Congrats!