Varsho/Moreno Discussion Thread

[brwnman]

Don’t let Varsho’s inconsequential GS distract you from the fact that he was 0-4 when the game was on the line and his Avg/OBP is lower after this game.

[Randle McMurphy]

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The walked-back bad takes on this one continue.

[Mehar]

Don’t let Varsho’s inconsequential GS distract you from the fact that he was 0-4 when the game was on the line and his Avg/OBP is lower after this game.

Those facts do not matter for his lovers like Randle. Randle was having orgasms also for two weeks in April/May last year when Varsho had his two week "Barry Bonds" power surge. Randle has his 2024 all-star Projections posted for Varsho in May of last year. Then Varsho fell flat on his face for months (power wise, batting average/on base). Let's see how he does the rest of the way. I will be the first to admit that 2025 Varsho is a different player than 2023 and 2024, if Varsho can show that he is at least a "league average" bat the rest of the way. Varsho was below average in 2023/2024 (BA, SLG, OPS, and On Base).

It was Atkins himself who said that Varsho was going to replace the production of Teoscar Hernandez in Spring Training 2023. It did not happen the past two seasons. Unless Varsho's pathetic On Base/Batting Average do not improve substantially from his atrocious 2023/2024 Totals- to say that this was "one of the best trades for any franchise this decade" is ridiculous. Hitting the occasional home run when the game is well out of reach, and then going hitless like he had been in prior several at bats where he was approaching .200 again, does not translate into a "bad take". That is especially true after seeing Varsho's pathetic 2023/2024 totals when he was a below average hitter in MLB. Nobody is complaining about his defense.

[brwnman]

Gotta ask yourself, how long before Nathan Lukes is outperforming Varsho on the offensive side of the ball, and the Jays have him in the 3-hole and move Varsho to the 9-hole?

[Fairview4Life]

I believe Varsho is now at a rate of 1 HR every 8 AB's and has a ~600 slugging %. So whenever he stops hitting the ball very hard a very long way.

[brwnman]

So likely by the weekend? Sounds good.

[brwnman]

Gotta ask yourself, how long before Nathan Lukes is outperforming Varsho on the offensive side of the ball, and the Jays have him in the 3-hole and move Varsho to the 9-hole?

Now that Lukes has done this.

Gotta ask yourself, how long before Clase outperforms Varsho at CF and replaces him. End of June, perhaps?

[Randle McMurphy]

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Game winning run for the MVP today after the triple to tie it.

[Fairview4Life]

Gotta ask yourself, how long before Nathan Lukes is outperforming Varsho on the offensive side of the ball, and the Jays have him in the 3-hole and move Varsho to the 9-hole?

Now that Lukes has done this.

Gotta ask yourself, how long before Clase outperforms Varsho at CF and replaces him. End of June, perhaps?

…what are you talking about lol.

[Lateral Quicks]

Combined WAR so far this year for Moreno and Gurriel Jr: 0 (-0.1 for Gurriel, +0.1 for Moreno, in ~300 total ABs)

WAR for Varsho so far: 1 in 66 ABs

Look, Varsho isn't a very good hitter. He doesn't hit for average, and he doesn't get on base. But he does have pop, and modern baseball values pop in a big way (too big, in my view). Add that to his stellar defense, and I think it's clear we got the better part of this trade. Would I have preferred Moreno over Kirk? Yes, but so far the difference has been relatively minor.

It's not Varsho's fault he's batting 4th. On a really good team, he should be hitting in the bottom third.

Let's just hope this team doesn't give Varsho a huge Gimenez-like contract in future. I'm not a fan of paying defense-first guys huge term or AAV.

[brwnman]

Ho-hum, another 0-4 start in a game for Varsho. SSS dictates that he must be relegated to the bench for Clase. Lukes to bat 3rd.

[brwnman]

Combined WAR so far this year for Moreno and Gurriel Jr: 0 (-0.1 for Gurriel, +0.1 for Moreno, in ~300 total ABs)

WAR for Varsho so far: 1 in 66 ABs

Look, Varsho isn't a very good hitter. He doesn't hit for average, and he doesn't get on base. But he does have pop, and modern baseball values pop in a big way (too big, in my view). Add that to his stellar defense, and I think it's clear we got the better part of this trade. Would I have preferred Moreno over Kirk? Yes, but so far the difference has been relatively minor.

It's not Varsho's fault he's batting 4th. On a really good team, he should be hitting in the bottom third.

Let's just hope this team doesn't give Varsho a huge Gimenez-like contract in future. I'm not a fan of paying defense-first guys huge term or AAV.

The trade valuation is already over for the Jays. Varsho was horrible his first year and his horrible first half last year was one of the reasons jays had to sell.

FWIW, Moreno and Varsho were projected to end up with the same fWAR at the time of morenos injury last year. bWAR overvalues OF defense, and baserunning. If you look at how it’s calculated, you’ll see why teams don’t value these metrics when they decide to pay players. Its overall impact in the grand scheme of things is minimal when you can’t hit. Modern baseball doesn’t value 5 WAR from an offensive player and defense first player the same way; it’s evident with how these players are paid in FA.

[Randle McMurphy]

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6 WAR season coming for MVP.

[brwnman]

If Varsho was a qualified hitter at this point, he’d have the 2nd lowest OBP in the majors

[Randle McMurphy]

MVP Varsho currently leads the league in ISO for batters with over 70 PAs (.377 ISO), ahead of both Judge and Shohei.

The kind of power Moreno can only dream of playing MLB The Show.

[Mehar]

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6 WAR season coming for MVP.

His WAR right now is 0.9 with all the hoopla of his power over two weeks. His batting average about to fall below .200 if he continues to hit the way he has recently. Not sure what you are smoking if you think he can reach 6 WAR.

[Mehar]

MVP Varsho currently leads the league in ISO for batters with over 70 PAs (.377 ISO), ahead of both Judge and Shohei.

The kind of power Moreno can only dream of playing MLB The Show.

You told me two years ago we need to compare Moreno vs. Kirk, and Gurriel vs. Varsho's hitting numbers. Now, you are comparing Moreno vs. Mr. Mendoza Varsho's home run power. The deal was a decisive win for Arizona in Year 1, a win in Year 2, and basically a wash right now in Year 3 with 5 months to go in the season due to Varsho's annual two/three week hot streak (which always comes tumbling down).

Gurriel has more home runs than Varsho right now, and Moreno has the same home runs up to this point with the so called "Power Bat" of Kirk, along with a higher OPS than Kirk. Moreno scoring higher in defensive metrics also. This while Moreno is making $793,000 this season with three more seasons of control left. While Fat Kirk signed for 5 years and 58 million (11.8 million a year). Arizona clear winners of the trade up to this point. That can change if Varsho continues to hit home runs at his pace for the coming months (which I seriously doubt, but still a possibility).

[Fairview4Life]

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6 WAR season coming for MVP.

His WAR right now is 0.9 with all the hoopla of his power over two weeks. His batting average about to fall below .200 if he continues to hit the way he has recently. Not sure what you are smoking if you think he can reach 6 WAR.

0.9 war in 18 games. He won’t play every game but that’s basically a 6.5 war rate for the rest of the year. So 6 isn’t crazy. If he keeps hitting like he has that means a home run every 8 at bats. I don’t give a **** if he’s 1-8 over those at bats if the 1 is a homer.

[Mehar]

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6 WAR season coming for MVP.

His WAR right now is 0.9 with all the hoopla of his power over two weeks. His batting average about to fall below .200 if he continues to hit the way he has recently. Not sure what you are smoking if you think he can reach 6 WAR.

0.9 war in 18 games. He won’t play every game but that’s basically a 6.5 war rate for the rest of the year. So 6 isn’t crazy. If he keeps hitting like he has that means a home run every 8 at bats. I don’t give a **** if he’s 1-8 over those at bats if the 1 is a homer.

I will take a home run every 8 at bats. But that is virtually impossible, since guys like Judge are not even producing at this clip. Varsho will not keep hitting like that. He had his two week power surge in the beginning of 2023, and then fell off the rest of the year. He had his two week power surge in April/May last year when everyone was excited and then he was terrible for 5 months. Hopefully, 2025 is different for this guy. However, if I am wrong and he can produce 1 home run every 8 at bats- I agree, I could care less if his Batting Average is below .200, or if he has the worst Batting Average in the league.

[brwnman]

Ho-hum, another 0-4 in a game for Var-no-sho.