Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Randle McMurphy]

Kirk has a 107 wRC+ on the season now despite hitting into some crazy bad luck for much of it. That’s going to rise with his hard hit% and plate discipline at the level it currently is.

No catcher I’d want more than him in baseball right now outside of Raleigh.

[brwnman]

Moreno fWAR 1.9
Kirk fWAR 1.5

Seems kind of close still?

1.0 bWAR to 0.3 bWAR advantage for Kirk this season.

And remember, Kirk doesn’t even have to be better than Moreno for the deal to be a massive win. They got one of the most valuable outfielders in baseball in the same deal (and their MVP over the past year) when healthy.

They chose well.

As usual, choose the WAR which fits your own narrative I guess.

Of course. It’s always going to be disingenuous, SSS and irrelevant ramblings with RM. Fact is, Moreno + Gurriel have outperformed Varsho first two years and it’ll be another year of the same.

So now he needs another slant, so it’s about Kirk.

[Randle McMurphy]

When you have to keep counting Gurriel’s value years after he became a free agent to make that deal even close to palatable, that’s when you know the desperation has set in.

[Mehar]

Kirk has a 107 wRC+ on the season now despite hitting into some crazy bad luck for much of it. That’s going to rise with his hard hit% and plate discipline at the level it currently is.

No catcher I’d want more than him in baseball right now outside of Raleigh.

You were saying a similar thing when Kirk was terrible offensively in both 2023 and 2024. He had an atrocious OPS of . 692 in 2023 and .677 in 2024, but you maintained he was still a Top 5 Catcher offensively and defensively (when the numbers said otherwise).

However, this is 2025 and if Kirk can keep his play up for the rest of this season- then no doubt he can be called a Top 5 Catcher. He is hitting like First Half of 2022 All-Star Kirk this past month, instead of the disappointing 2023/2O24 version. Hope it continues for this team's sake.

[PushDaRock]

Kirk has a 107 wRC+ on the season now despite hitting into some crazy bad luck for much of it. That’s going to rise with his hard hit% and plate discipline at the level it currently is.

No catcher I’d want more than him in baseball right now outside of Raleigh.

.313 BABIP wouldn't be what I would consider really bad luck. If anything, you probably expect that number to be lower because of his lack of speed. He's not getting any cheap hits because of it. You would also take the hard hit % with a grain of salt as well because he can't turn many of those balls hit to the gaps into doubles, so they're just hard hit singles. His career high in HR's is also just 14, so a drastic power surge seems also pretty unlikely.

[Randle McMurphy]

Kirk has a 107 wRC+ on the season now despite hitting into some crazy bad luck for much of it. That’s going to rise with his hard hit% and plate discipline at the level it currently is.

No catcher I’d want more than him in baseball right now outside of Raleigh.

.313 BABIP wouldn't be what I would consider really bad luck. If anything, you probably expect that number to be lower because of his lack of speed. He's not getting any cheap hits because of it. You would also take the hard hit % with a grain of salt as well because he can't turn many of those balls hit to the gaps into doubles, so they're just hard hit singles. His career high in HR's is also just 14, so a drastic power surge seems also pretty unlikely.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alejandro-kirk-672386?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Kirk’s xwOBA is .370 (3rd in MLB for Cs) while his actual wOBA is only .320. He’s been insanely unlucky considering batted ball stats and has been hitting rocket line drives all season long.

Try again.

[brwnman]

When you have to take hypothetical stats into consideration, the desperation has really set in.

[Randle McMurphy]

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Very hypothetical.

[PowerPlant1]

As expected, they are relishing in this moment.

No matter, Varsho will come back stronger in a few months. It might also make him easier to extend this offseason.

As expected, you are a clown for even thinking that people are happy that Varsho is hurt.

As expected, Randle's imagination dictates his views.

A Varsho injury has pros and cons to it. Con: Varsho is injured and it sucks for him and the team. Pro: poor Randle must be devastated.

Especially as he and others were declaring the Gimenez trade earlier this season a win based solely on an 'injured' Horwitz (because of course GMs have the foresight to know who is going to get injured). I guess he'll have to change his tune on Moreno vs Varsho in year 3 if Moreno iron mans it this year. Also, too bad his heart never goes out to 'injured players' that happen to play for other teams.

Sometimes things balance out.

[PowerPlant1]

Varsho's ISO (.390) so far this season would rank 1st for any qualified hitter in baseball history, above Babe Ruth (.348), Josh Gibson (.346), Mark McGwire (.325), Aaron Judge (.319), and Barry Bonds (.309). True power.

Are you comparing a 75 AB streak to the career #s of these players?

Of course. The point of the comparison was to show how good he's been offensively thus far this year despite his batting average, which, I think, that does rather effectively.

I suppose that's fine as long as the 75 AB are seen for what it is. A 75 AB hot streak and nothing more.

I on the other hand prefer to look at a whole season of Varsho especially owing to prior hot starts dwindling to OPSes of 674 and 700.

Case in point, just before the injury Varsho's ISO went down to 349. In just 16 more ABs. That should put it into context how premature your celebration of Varsho's season this year was based on the ISO stat. 349 is still better than those greats but plenty of poor hitters go on great streaks. Davis Schneider in 2023 had an ISO of 328 in 116 ABs. What's the rest of his career been like?

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

Best value catcher in baseball given the cheap contract.

[Mehar]

Are you comparing a 75 AB streak to the career #s of these players?

Of course. The point of the comparison was to show how good he's been offensively thus far this year despite his batting average, which, I think, that does rather effectively.

I suppose that's fine as long as the 75 AB are seen for what it is. A 75 AB hot streak and nothing more.

I on the other hand prefer to look at a whole season of Varsho especially owing to prior hot starts dwindling to OPSes of 674 and 700.

Case in point, just before the injury Varsho's ISO went down to 349. In just 16 more ABs. That should put it into context how premature your celebration of Varsho's season this year was based on the ISO stat. 349 is still better than those greats but plenty of poor hitters go on great streaks. Davis Schneider in 2023 had an ISO of 328 in 116 ABs. What's the rest of his career been like?

Very good point about Schneider from 2023. I did not realize his ISO was 328. Just my perspective- but ISO on its own is an overrated statistic, because history has shown plenty of mediocre hitters going on hot streaks for a couple of weeks mashing home runs and hitting for power.

A whole 162 game season of baseball statistics such as OPS, SLG, On Base, and even Batting Average tell us the complete picture of a Player's offensive production than an ISO statistic based on a 75 At Bats Sample Size.

[Randle McMurphy]

As expected, they are relishing in this moment.

No matter, Varsho will come back stronger in a few months. It might also make him easier to extend this offseason.

As expected, you are a clown for even thinking that people are happy that Varsho is hurt.

As expected, Randle's imagination dictates his views.

A Varsho injury has pros and cons to it. Con: Varsho is injured and it sucks for him and the team. Pro: poor Randle must be devastated.

Especially as he and others were declaring the Gimenez trade earlier this season a win based solely on an 'injured' Horwitz (because of course GMs have the foresight to know who is going to get injured).I guess he'll have to change his tune on Moreno vs Varsho in year 3 if Moreno iron mans it this year. Also, too bad his heart never goes out to 'injured players' that happen to play for other teams.

Sometimes things balance out.

They do if you trade them while they’re already injured which the Jays did with Horwitz. He had a chronic wrist injury.

It was and remains a great deal so long as Gimenez can be even close to a league average hitter.

[Mehar]

As expected, you are a clown for even thinking that people are happy that Varsho is hurt.

As expected, Randle's imagination dictates his views.

A Varsho injury has pros and cons to it. Con: Varsho is injured and it sucks for him and the team. Pro: poor Randle must be devastated.

Especially as he and others were declaring the Gimenez trade earlier this season a win based solely on an 'injured' Horwitz (because of course GMs have the foresight to know who is going to get injured).I guess he'll have to change his tune on Moreno vs Varsho in year 3 if Moreno iron mans it this year. Also, too bad his heart never goes out to 'injured players' that happen to play for other teams.

Sometimes things balance out.

They do if you trade them while they’re already injured which the Jays did with Horwitz. He had a chronic wrist injury.

It was and remains a great deal so long as Gimenez can be even close to a league average hitter.

How the heck can you keep on saying it was a great deal? Cleveland writers and fans last month were joyful that they found Suckers in Toronto to take the almost 100 million off their hands for the next five years for Ryan Goins 2.0. The man has an OPS of .577, BA of .195, and On Base of .273. That is beyond atrocious and nowhere near league average.

When the trade was made, I thought it made little sense to take on that contract, when the guy's offensive production had plummeted since 2022. Nobody is taking that contract off our hands and we are stuck with him, so you just got to hope he can regain his 2022 form when he was very good offensively.

[GameChannel]

Randle is a Shatkins plant. He will pretend he isn't but he's not fooling anyone.

[Randle McMurphy]

Randle is a Shatkins plant. He will pretend he isn't but he's not fooling anyone.

A plant should probably defend the largest contract in franchise history then. You know, instead of calling it a massive mistake that will be an anchor to the franchise.

[Randle McMurphy]

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What a contract he’s on. They chose well.

[brwnman]

Another hitless night for Varsho.

[Mehar]

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What a contract he’s on. They chose well.

Kirk has been very good after a disappointing first month, and looks like the first half version of 2022 as opposed to the mediocre 2023/2024 version. Speaking of contract, Arizona is pretty happy right now paying Moreno only $793,000 this year and with him being under team control for the next three years. Moreno has also come alive like Kirk in recent weeks, and had an excellent month of May hitting wise. For 11 million less than what Kirk is getting paid, Moreno now has a higher OPS and SLG than Kirk, identical On Base, although a slightly lower Batting Average (.281 vs. .295 for Kirk).

Both guys have been terrific hitting wise since the first week of May, after their slow starts in April. Hopefully Kirk can keep this up the rest of the year. Looks like a totally different guy than the previous two years, and even compared to how he looked in April when he was terrible. That 5 year 58 million dollar contract will look much better if Kirk continues to look the 2022 Version hitting wise, and not his 2023/2024 one.

[Parataxis]

Read on Twitter

What a contract he’s on. They chose well.

Kirk has been very good after a disappointing first month, and looks like the first half version of 2022 as opposed to the mediocre 2023/2024 version. Speaking of contract, Arizona is pretty happy right now paying Moreno only $793,000 this year and with him being under team control for the next three years. Moreno has also come alive like Kirk in recent weeks, and had an excellent month of May hitting wise. For 11 million less than what Kirk is getting paid

I mean, yes. Pre-arb players will always be on better value contracts than post-arb players. This isn't really a significant insight.