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s e n s i wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:Schneider went away from feel in that decision plain and simple which was my point. If Mayza worked out, the analytics of the decision look better.

no, he really didn't. that decision was based on feel and feel only.

nope. analytics based but just a poor one.

Aimless Outlook wrote:Please provide even a shred of analytical data that shows replacing your starter with a terrible lefty reliever option in that scenario is statistically a better option than leaving in your cy young level starter.

Can we just agree that it was a bad decision?

The 'fundamentals and guts' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on fundamentals and gut feelings.

The 'analytics' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on analytics.

It can just be a bad decision.

Parataxis wrote:

Aimless Outlook wrote:Please provide even a shred of analytical data that shows replacing your starter with a terrible lefty reliever option in that scenario is statistically a better option than leaving in your cy young level starter.

Can we just agree that it was a bad decision?

The 'fundamentals and guts' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on fundamentals and gut feelings.

The 'analytics' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on analytics.

It can just be a bad decision.

If john schneider didnt use any data to put in mayza and it was all feel for an average at best reliever then he shouldnt be a manager in the majors. The feel play was leaving guasman in.

Analytics ruined baseball. Remember back when you used to play with your friends in the neighborhood and baseball was fun? Don Mattingly, oh boy exciting stuff. Wake me up at game 163

As Fairview and Sensi have pointed out, there's literally zero chance that move was made by 'analytics', and the continued suggestion that analytics were responsible really only keeps serving to illustrate that people have simply turned analytics into a catch-all boogeyman to blame for any decision they don't like.

In 2022, Tim Mayza had an oppo line of .291/.342/.476 against righties, backed by a .351 xwOBA. In layman's terms, Tim Mayza made the average right-handed hitter look a little bit better than Bo Bichette. You do not want to make average hitters look a little bit better than Bo Bichette, given that Bichette was 29% better than an average hitter.

If you think that decision was made by The Analytics, I'm sorry. You are wrong. You are the wrongest a person can be. Analytics exist for the express purpose of not making that decision. There is no secret sauce the Jays stats team uses that results in them forcing the manager to make statistically the worst possible decision in the circumstance. Schneider simply made a bad call and got burned.

- Santana had a 134 wRC+ against LHP (89 against RHP).
- LH batters hit .162/.205/.297 againt Mayza, while RH batters hit .291/.342/.476.
- Gausman had a 2.91 ERA (2.65 FIP) in 43.1 IP when facing a lineup for the 3rd time in 2022.

That was not an analytical decision. It went against everything the numbers were suggesting. It was entirely gut/feel. There typically has to be context (data) that makes a decision logical for it to be considered analytically based. "Removing a starter early" being a trend in baseball due to analytics doesn't mean that every instance of removing a starter early is based on analytics. A lot of times, starters are not good the 2nd or 3rd time through the order, so they are removed earlier for that reason. If you're doing that to starters who don't have that issue, and replace them with relievers who shouldn't be on the field in that moment, then it's more ignorance than anything else.

So, besides re-hashing the bad playoff loss, any thoughts from those in the know on whether or not the Mattingly hire is a good one?

aminiaturebuddha wrote:So, besides re-hashing the bad playoff loss, any thoughts from those in the know on whether or not the Mattingly hire is a good one?

Cant hurt. Need experience. Can't make bad decisions like Schneider did in game 2 of the wild card. Hindsight 2020 but Gausman needed to stay in the game. Team needs to better balance feel and analytics approach.

aminiaturebuddha wrote:So, besides re-hashing the bad playoff loss, any thoughts from those in the know on whether or not the Mattingly hire is a good one?

Fantastic addition.
But he better shave those sideburns.....

I agree with Wutang-OG. This was clearly an analytics based decision. So you're telling me Scneider based his decision on a gut feeling after his SP was having a dominant performance bringing in an average lefty to face Santana? lol.

Like WutTang-OG said, Schenider trusted his ground out ability data on a switch hitter. This is analytics. This was a mistake and it cost him and the team a win and a chance to advance in the playoffs.

I bet if Mattingly was the manager, Gausman would have finished that inning.

Managers should be forced to say whether their decision/s are based on analytics or their feel.That way they know who to fire,and who not to lol.
Schneiders decisions all year regarding the lineup..were they analytics or his feeling out process.
I do not know or care much as to whether it was analytics that brought Mayza in,but whatever..it was a dumb move.Didnt they have any other better options at the time ?
Seattle is looking even tougher to beat now anyway with Teo added to that lineup lol.

WuTang_OG wrote:

Parataxis wrote:

Aimless Outlook wrote:Please provide even a shred of analytical data that shows replacing your starter with a terrible lefty reliever option in that scenario is statistically a better option than leaving in your cy young level starter.

Can we just agree that it was a bad decision?

The 'fundamentals and guts' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on fundamentals and gut feelings.

The 'analytics' people are going to say it was a bad decision based on analytics.

It can just be a bad decision.

If john schneider didnt use any data to put in mayza and it was all feel for an average at best reliever then he shouldnt be a manager in the majors. The feel play was leaving guasman in.

Exactly.

Hottie McShotty wrote:I agree with Wutang-OG. This was clearly an analytics based decision. So you're telling me Scneider based his decision on a gut feeling after his SP was having a dominant performance bringing in a lefty to face Santana? lol.

Like WutTang-OG said, Schenider trusted his ground out ability data on a switch hitter. This is analytics. This was a mistake and it cost him and the team a win and a chance to advance in the playoffs.

I bet if Mattingly was the manager, Gausman would have finished that inning.

Name the analytic. Which statistic would lead you to bring in Tim Mayza to face Santana. Explain it to us.

There is no “ground out ability data on a switch hitter” that would lead Schneider to bring in Mayza to face Santana. That “data” does not exist. That was a gut feeling. His gut told him that Mayza would get a ground out and end the inning against all available statistics.

As previously mentioned, that decision was literally the worst decision Schneider could have made if he was basing his decision on statistics. Christ, bringing in Kikuchi to face him might have actually been better analytically!

This is such an inane argument. I like how meta it is though. Like, the people arguing it was a statistically based decision are only using their gut to say that, and not basing it on any actual evidence or statistic.

Fairview4Life wrote:This is such an inane argument. I like how meta it is though. Like, the people arguing it was a statistically based decision are only using their gut to say that, and not basing it on any actual evidence or statistic.

I would have preferred he left Gausman in to face Santana.
I think the reason a lot of fans jump to the conclusion of analytics is because of some already known,and stupid previous analytics decisions like Jake Snells 1 hitter into the 6th;TB vs LA,and then they take him out and lose,and others that were revealed to be analytics based decisions.

Hottie McShotty wrote:I agree with Wutang-OG. This was clearly an analytics based decision. So you're telling me Scneider based his decision on a gut feeling after his SP was having a dominant performance bringing in an average lefty to face Santana? lol.

It's very easy to explain from the standpoint of a human manager. It is absolutely impossible to explain from the perspective of analytics.


Human manager - you are up seven, and your starter has gotten into trouble. But you're still up seven, and you're managing with the series-decider in mind as much as you are this game. You have to strike a balance between winning this game, and also ensuring that you have as much of the back-end of your 'pen available for the decider as possible, and you had to use a couple of those in Game 1 and thus really want to avoid using them again.

But your starter put three guys on, and you're worried he's going to get a bit melty-downy and you're going to be remembered as Toronto's Grady Little. And Tim Mayza is warm. As a result, you rationalize. Mayza struggles against righties, sure. But he does get grounders (when he isn't giving up XBHs to righties), and again: you're up seven. Unless he gives up a home run, the downside risk isn't that bad, and even if he does...you're up three, right? A bit too close for comfort, but you'll probably still close it out. It's not that you even like the Mayza matchup, it's just that you feel that you need to do something in that spot, and Mayza is the something available for you to do that doesn't crimp your plans for Game 3.



Some algorithm - the algorithm is broken in ways that would be blatantly obvious to anyone with a scintilla of knowledge of baseball, and yet people with decades in the game continue to blindly trust it as the final arbiter of in-game decisions. Tens or hundreds of millions of dollars are on the line, while the decisions are being left to an AI of the quality of the Microsoft chatbot that got turned into a Nazi in less than a day. It demands LHP v RHB matchups all day, and we obey, for it is ours not to reason why. This all makes perfect sense and is definitely what is happening here.


I know which of those two versions of events makes more sense to me. There's a reason my biggest complaint about managers is that they often feel like they need to do much more managing than is beneficial. Schneider decided to put on his Managing hat, and it was the wrong call.

I could understand the "it was analytics" argument when it comes to pulling Gausman early, but there is no way anyone could rationally claim that turning Santana around to bat from his stronger side while also putting out a pitcher who gets obliterated by righties would have been advocated by analytics.

If Schneider brought in Romano or Bass in that situation, then at least you can plausibly postulate that the move came from upstairs. But Mayza was a panic move and Schneider clearly didn't know the splits (because if he did, and still went through with it, he's the dumbest manager in baseball).

I suspect that he knew the splits, but found some rationalization...that Gausman was gassed and that trumped the splits, something like that. Even fairly capable managers (and the jury's still out on Schneider's ability to be that) have a tendency to talk themselves into dumb decisions now and again.

It's basically the reason why teams have analytics departments in the first place: to keep scouts and managers and GMs from getting a bad case of galaxy-brain and screwing everything up on a hunch or fixation or out of sheer panic. But as the nerds merely advise those roles, they can't exactly have the last word.

WuTang_OG wrote:

Fairview4Life wrote:I don't think I can make it any simpler. It was, other than bringing in a position player to pitch, the literal worst decision analytically that Schneider could have made. This is a very simple point and ignoring it doesn't make you right.

You just arent getting it though. Schneider's reasoning was also due to the fact that he didnt want Gausman to go through the lineup for the 3rd time - a major analytics theme for starting pitchers. You can continue to argue the decision but I will leave this here.

Didn't want Gausman to face the 7,8,and 9 hitters for a 3rd time?? After being allowed to face 1 thru 6? That's the depth of your argument? That's an analytics decision? Come on man.

SharoneWright wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:

Fairview4Life wrote:I don't think I can make it any simpler. It was, other than bringing in a position player to pitch, the literal worst decision analytically that Schneider could have made. This is a very simple point and ignoring it doesn't make you right.

You just arent getting it though. Schneider's reasoning was also due to the fact that he didnt want Gausman to go through the lineup for the 3rd time - a major analytics theme for starting pitchers. You can continue to argue the decision but I will leave this here.

Didn't want Gausman to face the 7,8,and 9 hitters for a 3rd time?? After being allowed to face 1 thru 6? That's the depth of your argument? That's an analytics decision? Come on man.

Read above. That was one part of it. Another part was wanting Mayza and his ground ball impact on a switch hitter. That's analytics. Whether it was a **** analytics decision or not, it was made.