Wild Card Game: Baltimore (Tillman) @ Toronto (Stroman) | Tuesday, October 4 | 8PM EST

[Hoopstarr]

Should be noted Liriano won the 2013 NL WC game going 7 strong with Martin catching him (Grilli pitched the 9th). One of the main reasons for going with Stro despite the history against the Os is that he has the make up to deal with it, but Liriano is more experienced and has postseason success too.

[BigLeagueChew]

2B Devon Travis (R)
3B Josh Donaldson (R)
1B E. Encarnacion (R)
RF Jose Bautista (R)
C Russell Martin (R)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)
DH M. Saunders (L)
CF Kevin Pillar (R)
LF E. Carrera (L)

[Hoopstarr]

For those interested, Dan Szymborski has an article up on ESPN with "projected splits, with the regression included" that show Liriano heavily favoured over Stroman. I don't have Insider (maybe somebody wants to help with the full article text) but I trust statistics and math over the intuition that Eno has used (particularly since that intuition itself is almost entirely based on less-precise math). I personally think a lot of this is "Stroman is the face of the franchise and he won Game 5 last year, so let's give him a shot", to which I obviously don't agree with. Either way, I can't wait to watch.

Odds to win: Baltimore Orioles (50%) at Toronto Blue Jays (50%)

This is actually the first time that the Orioles have played the Blue Jays in the playoffs. To many, that might not mean anything, but for those of a certain age, it will be remembered that for a period in the late 1980s, early '90s, Orioles-Blue Jays was the AL East rivalry. The Yankees were at one of their lowest points in history and the Red Sox, during the Lou Gorman era, were a very up-and-down team. It was the Blue Jays who crushed the dreams of the 1989 "Why Not O's" in the final weekend and the Blue Jays who came out on top most of the time in the early '90s.

The 1993 All-Star Game at Camden Yards was the peak of this rivalry, Mike Mussina going unused during the game by Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston. In the ninth, Mussina started warming up in the pen, but he was never used despite the crowd chanting for him. The stories behind the scene have varied over the years. Was Mussina trying to rile up the crowd? Or simply trying to get in some work?

A winner-take-all wild-card game might be just what is needed to reignite the rivalry. Unlike the NL wild cards, the Orioles and Blue Jays won't be able to start their top pitcher in this game, with both Kevin Gausman and Aaron Sanchez having been used in must-win Sunday games (and if the teams wouldn't prefer those two pitchers being the starters, they're nuts). The O's and Jays were left with a crucial decision for their Tuesday pitcher, one they both made on Monday afternoon. Did they choose wisely?

In the case of the Blue Jays, I'd have to say no. Choosing between Francisco Liriano and Marcus Stroman, they went with Stroman, their young righty, citing that they'd be most comfortable with him in a big-game atmosphere. Liriano has been a beast down the stretch, good for a 2.92 ERA since being picked up from the Pirates and getting a handle on his control issues. But it's not recency that should have made Liriano the preferred choice. It's the fact that he would have struck at Baltimore's great offensive weakness, a general ineffectiveness against left-handed pitching.

The common knowledge about the Baltimore Orioles is that they have one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Sure, they hit 253 home runs, but the team was ninth in on-base percentage, which led to only a seventh-place finish in the American League in runs scored, despite playing in a relatively neutral park (good for homers, less good for other types of hits). This isn't Home Run Derby, and the O's 99 OPS+ is that of an average offense.

Against right-handed pitchers, the O's had a .783 OPS, for a 107 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), the fourth-best in baseball. Against left-handed pitching, that was a .692 OPS, coming out to an 83 wRC+, the eighth-worst in baseball. A 107 wRC+, over a full season, is what the Cubs hit. And 83 wRC+ is what the Phillies hit.

In layman's terms, if you had two identical pitchers, one lefty and one righty, using the righty (Stroman) instead of the lefty (Liriano) means the Blue Jays are choosing to play against one of the best offenses in baseball instead of one of the worst offenses in baseball. If you're choosing to face the Phillies' lineup instead of the Cubs' lineup, you need to have a better reason than a gut feeling. Sure, the Cubs sometimes get shut out and the Phillies sometimes score 10, but is that the way you want to bet on one game?

As for the O's, ZiPS feels that the team made the right call to go with Chris Tillman over Ubaldo Jimenez. Yes, Jimenez has a 2.82 ERA in 60⅔ innings for the Orioles in the second half, but that's not when he started playing baseball. If you were projecting pitchers and only using their most recent second-half numbers, you would do far, far worse than projection systems currently do. Jimenez has always had blazing hot streaks and heat-death-of-the-universe cold streaks, and that kind of pitcher is risky in a one-game format. Jimenez gets crushed in Game 1 of the ALDS? You can still win three of four. Game 1 of the wild card? There ain't no Game 2. Tillman is the right pick here, and if he's not yet healthy enough to get through the playoffs, the O's probably wouldn't get very far anyway.

In projection terms, how big a difference does it make? Even though ZiPS thinks Liriano is a slightly worse pitcher than Stroman against a neutral team/league (4.11 ERA vs. 4.01 ERA), picking Liriano instead of Stroman would have changed the game from a 50-50 projection to 61-39 in the Blue Jays favor. Jays fans better hope that John Gibbons has an accurate gut.

[Hoopstarr]

I know he big debate right now is the pitching...but I think what we need even more is the bats to be breathing. They don't need to be the offense from last year, but if we want to go anywhere, let alone past the wild card, we need the bats to be working.

So as much as we could make the case for Liriano (he'll probably pitch at some point tomorrow anyways, and I have a feeling Stroman will be just fine and give us a chance to win), we need a showing from the bats (especially Donaldson, Bautista, Eddie...the big boys).

I think they can do it.

That's because we can't do anything about the bats. They either show up or they don't. It's just as likely they continue to struggle as they have all year with BIP luck and situational hitting woes.

[pingpongrac]

Why does everyone keep saying that it was a decision made by Gibbons and his gut feeling? It wasn't just his call; everyone was involved and Shapiro said yesterday that the reason they went with Stroman is because they thought that Stroman starting and having Liriano available out of the pen gives them a better chance of winning than Liriano starting and having Stro available out of the pen.

[The_Hater]

Why does everyone keep saying that it was a decision made by Gibbons and his gut feeling? It wasn't just his call; everyone was involved and Shapiro said yesterday that the reason they went with Stroman is because they thought that Stroman starting and having Liriano available out of the pen gives them a better chance of winning than Liriano starting and having Stro available out of the pen.

While I'm sure that Jays brass got together to make a decision behind closed doors it doesn't mean they universally agreed on Stoman. And at the end of the day it's still the managers call over everyone else including Shapiro.

This doesn't mean that in public now they're not going to present a united front on the decision. Anything contrary would be chaos.

[GooniesNeverDie]

2B Devon Travis (R)
3B Josh Donaldson (R)
1B E. Encarnacion (R)
RF Jose Bautista (R)
C Russell Martin (R)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)
DH M. Saunders (L)
CF Kevin Pillar (R)
LF E. Carrera (L)

was hoping tulo got bumped up to 5. russell has been awful in the past month

[Raps in 4]

I don't understand all the backlash to the decision to start Stroman...

Stroman has been our best pitcher since the all-star break. He also has the highest ground ball rate in the majors. There is nothing puzzling about the decision.

Sure starting Liriano would have also made sense. But it wouldn't have objectively made more sense (or less).

[Flight33]

I'm so nervous.

[Wo1verine]

Tsn so blunt while sn isn't allowed to disagree with the choice

[Skin Blues]

Sure starting Liriano would have also made sense. But it wouldn't have objectively made more sense (or less).

The best objective projection system for game outcomes, ZiPS, which incorporates platoon projections, determined the following:

"picking Liriano instead of Stroman would have changed the game from a 50-50 projection to 61-39 in the Blue Jays favor." (thanks to Hoopstarr for the article text)

So... no, it doesn't make sense to start Stroman. It is objectively a bad decision that doesn't make sense.

[Lateral Quicks]

Well that's probably the best starting 9 we can throw out there, so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

You could argue about the order a bit, but at least Gibby didn't do something stupid like bat Carrera leadoff (as he's done so often lately).

Tillman is far from invincible, so hopefully we jump on him early and give Stro a cushion to work with.

[albinorap]

Can't wait to head down. Leaving soon!!

[Boogie!]

I don't understand all the backlash to the decision to start Stroman...

Stroman has been our best pitcher since the all-star break. He also has the highest ground ball rate in the majors. There is nothing puzzling about the decision.

Sure starting Liriano would have also made sense. But it wouldn't have objectively made more sense (or less).

every stroman start ive watched has looked shaky... hes had some good games where hes looked dominant, but those are sprinkled in between a bunch of starts where he looks like he could get wrecked at any second. ill always be a stroman supporter and fan but nothing about his performance this season has shown me that he deserves to pitch a wild card game... i just hope for his and the team's sake, he can channel the stroman that we saw in september of last year. the one that looked like an ace. because as of right now im expecting AT LEAST 3 runs through 6 innings... and while thats not a bad game, thats not really the type of shutdown pitcher you want going into a wild card game. especially considering how **** our offense has been.

[Raider917]

starting stroman better not backfire but im thinking it might.

[Latrell]

I hate Buck Showalter so much.

[0 - 100]

Go buy these for the game, you wont be disappointed... @ loblaws

[Mikistan]

please based stroman

[Potential]

I'm so nervous.

#Don'tBeNervous

[Throwback24]

starting stroman better not backfire but im thinking it might.

Stroman will channel the energy of the fans and deliver the most potent wild card spirit bomb Canada has ever seen.