General Blue Jays Thread

[polo007]

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[Davey0]

Now that Nimmo is off the board, I'm thinking that the Blue Jays are really dodging the bullet here with these long-term contracts.

[Schad]

I'm am completely fine not to be taking part in the madness that is the top-end of this FA class. Nimmo's good. He is not likely to be $162m good over the course of his deal.

Seeing a lot of "well, they aren't really paying them to be good in the later years, they're just pushing back salary". Absolutely. But that means that it's effectively, what, a 6 year, $30.7m AAV contract with some salary deferred to 2030 and 2031? That's not better!

Just to put the craziness of these megadeals in context, here is a complete list of position players age 34 and above to post 2.5+ fWAR last year (where 2.5 fWAR means "a little above-average"):

- Paul Goldschmidt.
- Jose Abreu.



That's it. That's the whole damned list. Two position players in the whole of baseball above age 34 graded out as at least fairly good, and yet these guys are getting contracts that extend 3-7 years beyond that point, including nine figures in dollars from age 34 on. There are a grand total of 7 position players 33+ above that threshold, and 10 who are 32+. It's a young man's league where people are getting paid extraordinary salaries right before they hit terminal decline. It's utterly nuts.

[Schad]

I initially didn't run pitchers because (if your arm doesn't fall off), they tend to age better. But it actually isn't that much better.

There were 14 pitchers with 2.5+ fWAR last year at age 32 or higher, out of 54 total.That means that about 75% of the pitchers to exceed 2.5 fWAR were 31 or younger.

There were 10 position players with 2.5 fWAR at age 32 or higher, out of 89 total. The means almost 90% of the players to exceed that threshold were 31 or younger.

And yet most of the money goes to guys who aren't good anymore, or are getting awfully close to not being good anymore. The economics of baseball are so profoundly ****.

[Cyrus]

Waiting for jays writers to say we were in nimmo. This is where prob playing in Canada saved us, we likely offered a similar deal or even more to nimmo.

Anyways bring King Tapia back!

[Parataxis]

I initially didn't run pitchers because (if your arm doesn't fall off), they tend to age better. But it actually isn't that much better.

There were 14 pitchers with 2.5+ fWAR last year at age 32 or higher, out of 54 total.That means that about 75% of the pitchers to exceed 2.5 fWAR were 31 or younger.

There were 10 position players with 2.5 fWAR at age 32 or higher, out of 89 total. The means almost 90% of the players to exceed that threshold were 31 or younger.

What % of total position players (of any fWAR) are 31 or younger? If 31 and younger make up 90% of all players, then making up 90% of all high fWAR players seems reasonable. If they only make up half of all players, then it shows a lot of decline.

[Schad]

What % of total position players (of any fWAR) are 31 or younger? If 31 and younger make up 90% of all players, then making up 90% of all high fWAR players seems reasonable. If they only make up half of all players, then it shows a lot of decline.

317 players received 250 PAs last year. 257 (81%) of those were 31 or younger.

Here are the number of players to receive 250 PAs, by age:

21: 5.
22: 6.
23: 17.
24: 20.
25: 32.
26: 19.
27: 43.
28: 29.
29: 32.
30: 28.
31: 26.
32: 20.
33: 12.
34: 11.
35: 7.
36: 3.
37: 1.
38: 2.
39: 2.
40: 0.
41: 1.
42: 1.

So the age range of players is reasonably stable until 31, at which point it falls off a cliff. Which tracks with the fact that, beyond age 31, the number of players who are even worth rostering begins declining substantially.

It's not like there was some sort of baby boom that is being reflected in the numbers...there were a lot of good 27-30 year olds in 2017. Now that they're 32-35 years old, very few of them are good anymore. Of the 44 players aged 27-30 to post 2.5 fWAR+ in 2017, only six were still at that level in 2022 (plus two guys to exceed 2.5 fWAR in 2022 that didn't in 2017: Stirling Marte, who missed a bunch of time that year and also kinda sucked, and Mark Canha, a serious late-bloomer).

So you have fewer and fewer players beyond age 32 even playing significantly, and those that do are underperforming the league as a whole. And yet, while I haven't done the math, I'd hazard a guess that players over 32 are making more money as a cohort than players under 32.

[Cyrus]

So your saying we are going to see huge decline in springer, assuming if he can even stay healthy to get those bats

[wamco]

Did David Phelps retire?

[Schad]

So your saying we are going to see huge decline in springer, assuming if he can even stay healthy to get those bats

Very likely. A good result would be Springer remaining reasonably good/healthy next year, being an average-ish player in 2024, and being a bit of a boat anchor for the final two years. If that happens, his fWAR spread might be something like (completely spitballing): 3.7/2.5/1.4/0.4.

Which isn't bad as far as megadeals go! That would be 14.7 fWAR over six years, and 14.7 fWAR is worth something in the $120m range in FA bucks, while he'll have gotten $150m. Missing ~100 games in his first two seasons, which you'd expect/want to be his most-productive, drives a fair bit of the divergence.

But it also wouldn't be surprising if he just cratered at some point in the not-too-distant future, as a lot of older players now do, and basically wasn't worth rostering for the final three years of his contract or something.

[SharoneWright]

So your saying we are going to see huge decline in springer, assuming if he can even stay healthy to get those bats

Very likely. A good result would be Springer remaining reasonably good/healthy next year, being an average-ish player in 2024, and being a bit of a boat anchor for the final two years. If that happens, his fWAR spread might be something like (completely spitballing): 3.7/2.5/1.4/0.4.

Which isn't bad as far as megadeals go! That would be 14.7 fWAR over six years, and 14.7 fWAR is worth something in the $120m range in FA bucks, while he'll have gotten $150m. Missing ~100 games in his first two seasons, which you'd expect/want to be his most-productive, drives a fair bit of the divergence.

But it also wouldn't be surprising if he just cratered at some point in the not-too-distant future, as a lot of older players now do, and basically wasn't worth rostering for the final three years of his contract or something.

Like Judge in 2 years! LOL@NYY 9 years!

[Parataxis]

So your saying we are going to see huge decline in springer, assuming if he can even stay healthy to get those bats

Very likely. A good result would be Springer remaining reasonably good/healthy next year, being an average-ish player in 2024, and being a bit of a boat anchor for the final two years. If that happens, his fWAR spread might be something like (completely spitballing): 3.7/2.5/1.4/0.4.

Which isn't bad as far as megadeals go! That would be 14.7 fWAR over six years, and 14.7 fWAR is worth something in the $120m range in FA bucks, while he'll have gotten $150m. Missing ~100 games in his first two seasons, which you'd expect/want to be his most-productive, drives a fair bit of the divergence.

But it also wouldn't be surprising if he just cratered at some point in the not-too-distant future, as a lot of older players now do, and basically wasn't worth rostering for the final three years of his contract or something.

Yeah, I feel that when we signed Springer, there was a fair bit of talk about how we'd be paying him for six years for production in 4. Would be great if he can somehow beat that curve though.

[Schad]

Yeah, I feel that when we signed Springer, there was a fair bit of talk about how we'd be paying him for six years for production in 4. Would be great if he can somehow beat that curve though.

Given that his first year was his age 32 season, the risk existed that he'd be pretty mediocre almost from the start, which thankfully didn't happen. He's in the frame to be a mild overpay, which beats the hell out of someone like Rendon, who is slightly younger, but already a physical wreck (and owed another $150m over four).

[WuTang_CMB]

Neemo got a lot and likely leveraged the Mets who couldn't afford to lose him.

Jays likely going to target trade market to fill their holes.

[Schad]

Former major leaguer (and, for two appearances in 2017, Blue Jay) T.J. House announced yesterday on his Facebook that he is gay, and engaged:

https://www.facebook.com/tj.house.18/posts/pfbid02FZ39vX6bbKL5kT42HqF5vDoTfWMu1ab3aiLXEzzS8CqmVcdx12MCwTxpi5ozqrG5l

[dagger]

The lesson seems to be, if you don't want to sign aging vets to deals that are likely to turn out badly after a year or two - if not immediately - you really, truly need to have a good draft and development program. I mean, the Jays have banked heavily in drafting on pitchers and middle infielders, which is fine, except they have notably failed to develop swing-and-miss relievers and outfielders. They traded for Teoscar, signed Gurriel as a second baseman and Springer as an FA. Thy haven't had a system-developed regular in the outfield since Kevin Pillar and he was kind of an outlier - a freak of sorts, a drafting after-thought they lucked into. I'm not sure than converting infielders into outfielders works that well, Gurriel runs sub-optimal lanes and his D regressed last season. So while you'd expect the team to keep using high picks (like rounds 1-3) on pitchers and infielders, it would be nice if they could find and develop some competent two-way outfielders as the draft advances beyond that stage.

I'm kind of hoping Dasan Brown proves me wrong. He's an uber-fast defender, and his bat turned upward as last season progressed. If he carries that on to AA, things will start to get interesting with him, ditto for Gabby Martinez at a corner OF spot. But please, fans, let's stop this talk about Gabriel Moreno being our CF of the future. Just stop.

[polo007]

Neemo got a lot and likely leveraged the Mets who couldn't afford to lose him.

Jays likely going to target trade market to fill their holes.

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[Parataxis]

Man, being a Blue Jays fan in the winter is just constantly yo-yoing between 'man, I wish we signed that guy' and 'wow, I can't believe they paid that much for that guy!'

[Brinbe]

Baseball is flush with cash and every single one of these owners have huge pockets so they'll go over the top a lot more compared to what Rogers would be willing to do. The difference between being owned by a billionaire superfan and a telecom.

That being said, some fans are freaking out (not necessarily in here) and I don't quite understand why? There's still lots of guys out there and we'll inevitably get some guys on pretty good deals in the end. Not gonna cry after not signing Nimmo lol.

There's also still the trade market and I think that'll be where we may have a better opportunity to more drastically improve the team/fill holes.

[Lateral Quicks]

With a big commitment to Springer already, I never thought it made sense to add another big long-term contract to a soon-to-be 30-something.

I still think it makes sense to try and trade a young catcher for a young outfielder. I suppose we can rent some more outfielders this year if we need to, but I'd prefer getting a long-term piece out there to go along with our younger core.