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General Blue Jays Thread

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2101 » by Randle McMurphy » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:16 pm

brwnman wrote:I've always had an issue with WAR when it comes to defense, because I don't think the assigned "value" is appropriate. If a player's WAR is mainly derived from their defense, I tend to feel the player is overrated. CF is definitely a position you need to have a strong defender but when using WAR, KK and Pillar were 4th and 9th respectively in overall WAR in 2015 (I know it's a long time ago but just using this as an example). However, no one is going to truly believe they were the 4th and 9th most valuable player in the league that year. Truth is, they played a premium position and were exceptional defenders. This has value, but WAR is "busted" when it comes to the true value of those players.

I mean, I can believe it just fine. Saving runs in baseball is just as important as scoring runs and those who do it at a high level are incredibly valuable.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2102 » by Schad » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:53 pm

You're better off, in general, having an adequate-to-average defense and elite offense than the reverse. However, we'll still have a very good offense without Teoscar, and our outfield defense (beyond JBJ) wasn't adequate, it was atrocious. We had a fringe-average defender in CF in Springer, and three terrible corner OFs in Tapia, Teo and Gurriel. We gave away an awful lot of runs last year.

Having Kiermaier in CF and Springer in right will make a big difference. We had one of the lowest GB rates in baseball; having a competent OF is of particular importance to us, and Kiermaier/Springer/Gurriel is an above-average OF defense despite Gurriel having the range of a sloth. It also takes some of the burden off Springer's creaky frame, and it allows us to carry a bat-first fourth/platoon OF, rather than another JBJ/Zimmer. All makes sense to me.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2103 » by Trilogy » Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:01 pm

My only concern with Kiermaier is that players of his profile (defensive outfielders) have a tendency to start falling off hard and fast around his age. That risk is increased coming of hip surgery as well.

But the player he has been even as most recent is valuable for the Blue Jays and it would be solidified even further if they can get a solid corner OF so that they can mix and match in the OF rather than flatly rely upon him. That would also mitigate the above risk somewhat.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2104 » by polo007 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:03 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2105 » by Raptors Realtor » Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:38 pm

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Can't be mad at this signing, 3 years @ $21M per seems pretty reasonable. Hopefully he can stay healthy and fill the 3-4 spot in the rotation.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2106 » by polo007 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 12:51 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2107 » by polo007 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:26 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2108 » by linery88 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:11 am

Love Kiermaier;a guy we all hated,playing for us now,and he is a great bench clubhouse guy.Maybe we develop an even edgier type team with more grit,and attitude.So far so good on the offseason moves.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2109 » by polo007 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:47 am

Bassitt, Kiermaier additions a springboard for improved Blue Jays' defence - Sportsnet.ca

While details of the Kiermaier agreement aren’t known, industry speculation has him falling into the $8-$10 million range for one year. Combine that with Bassitt’s AAV of $21 million and the Blue Jays are suddenly back within that $30 million range.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2110 » by polo007 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:48 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2111 » by Duffman100 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:03 pm

Damn, there goes stripling.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2112 » by Cyrus » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:15 pm

Expected, doubt we were going to sign Bassitt, and as well Strip. It's too bad if we didn't swing and miss badly on Yusei deal, we could have brougth stirp back on a cheap deal, 2 years 25 mill is pretty good, and he has an opt out after year 1, should he be really good.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2113 » by linery88 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:32 pm

Is there anyone out there we can get to replace Strip ?
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2114 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:06 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2115 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:00 am

Blue Jays gain leverage for potential trade in catching market | The Star

The Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are among the teams known to be searching for catchers. The Houston Astros, Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies probably are too.

The Jays continue to insist they are prepared to open the season with three backstops. They feel confident enough in the duo of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen and they consistently tout Gabriel Moreno’s ability to move around the field, or if necessary, be optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

The way the Jays describe it, they’re willing to be flexible and open-minded in talks, but they’re not going to be pressured into any deals. They’re not making the phone calls, they’re just taking them.

There might be some truth in that but after signing Bassitt and centre-fielder Kevin Kiermaier this week, the Jays are approaching the $233-million competitive balance tax threshold. They have a big hole to fill in the outfield and they could use another high-leverage reliever. If there aren’t enough funds to fill those spots through free agency, moving a catcher becomes the logical alternative.

On paper, the best fit appears to be the Diamondbacks. They have a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders, which just so happens to be what the Jays require in a replacement for Teoscar Hernández. Corbin Carroll is believed to be off limits, but 26-year-old Daulton Varsho has been reported to be available.

Varsho, a converted catcher, plays all three outfield positions at an above-average level and last season’s 27 home runs prove that he has no shortage of power either. As a first-year arbitration player, he’s projected to earn a meagre $2.8 million in 2023. He would fill a hole without breaking the bank.


The Cleveland Guardians appeared to be another ideal landing spot until they signed veteran Mike Zunino on Tuesday. Zunino and his $6-million salary might not take the Guardians out of the market for catchers entirely, but with promising Mississauga native Bo Naylor on the way, they don’t have much of a long-term need at the position either. Jansen could remain a possibility in a deal for a reliever but moving Kirk or Moreno for a starter like Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill no longer appears to be in the cards.

There will be at least a couple contending teams sniffing around what the Jays have to offer. While Martin Maldonado is a favourite of Dusty Baker in Houston, he comes with a borderline unplayable .600 on-base plus slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres aren’t much better off with Austin Nola and his lacklustre .649 OPS. If the Marlins can be talked into trading for a young catcher, lots of possibilities remain there too.

By slow playing the catching market, the Jays have been closed off from several potential suitors. Yet they’re now potentially holding all the cards because outside of Atlanta’s d’Arnaud there aren’t a lot of great options for teams needing help at a premium spot. Agents have been able to leverage similar situations into big deals — Atkins has an opportunity to do the same through trade.

If the Jays don’t get an offer to their liking, either in the form of a large-scale deal for Kirk/Moreno or a smaller trade of Jansen, Atkins is correct to stand pat. However, if there’s an enticing trade, or something even remotely close to one, it’s a deal he must make because the Jays roster has holes, and this is one of the only ways to fill them.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2116 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:59 pm

In rapidly moving market, where might Blue Jays look next? - Sportsnet.ca

Yet there’s always room to improve, and no reason for the Blue Jays to stop looking for help now. They’ve been showing interest in some high-upside relievers since adding Erik Swanson in trade, so that’s an area to monitor.

Along those lines, sources said they’ve shown recent interest in Johnny Cueto, who posted a 3.35 ERA in 158.1 innings with the White Sox last year.

MORE PAYROLL

Speaking of spending, the Blue Jays’ pending deal with Bassitt makes clear what’s seemed likely all off-season. For the first time in franchise history, team payroll will exceed $200 million in 2023.

In fact, depending on where Kiermaier’s commitment lands and what else the Blue Jays do, they could end up over the $233 million competitive balance tax in what would be another first for the franchise.


FanGraphs' payroll tracker already has them at $225 million before accounting for Kiermaier or any further moves. Last week team president Mark Shapiro said the CBT was “not an obstacle” for ownership at Rogers Communications, Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.

"The support and the growth of that payroll is unprecedented in the history of the franchise and it continues to be very strong,” Shapiro said.

CATCHING MARKET MOVING

The market for catchers has moved quickly, with St. Louis (Willson Contreras), Minnesota (Christian Vazquez), Atlanta (Sean Murphy) and Cleveland (Mike Zunino) all landing backstops within the last week.

For a Blue Jays team with three young catchers, those developments are significant – in fact, they may give GM Ross Atkins & Co. some leverage in trade talks. Because with due respect to free agents Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Perez, the Blue Jays’ catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno is more appealing.

One source with first-hand knowledge of the catching market described the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Giants and Padres as interested teams at that position. It stands to reason the Astros would also be in that group after seeing Vazquez leave for the Twins.

All off-season, the Blue Jays have said they’re open to keeping all three catchers and figuring out playing time on the go, but under the right circumstances they’d make a deal. And at this point, it looks like the catching market runs through Toronto.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2117 » by Randle McMurphy » Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:19 pm

Being reported as 1 year/9M for Kiermaier, which appears like a pretty good bargain given his expected value (FGs had him projected for around a 2/20M contract). You can also bet they've guaranteed him some substantial playing time to come here for just the one year as well.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2118 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:51 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:Being reported as 1 year/9M for Kiermaier, which appears like a pretty good bargain given his expected value (FGs had him projected for around a 2/20M contract). You can also bet they've guaranteed him some substantial playing time to come here for just the one year as well.

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2119 » by Lateral Quicks » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:09 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:Being reported as 1 year/9M for Kiermaier, which appears like a pretty good bargain given his expected value (FGs had him projected for around a 2/20M contract). You can also bet they've guaranteed him some substantial playing time to come here for just the one year as well.


The 1-year term warms me to the signing. I still think there's more downside than upside risk, but if it goes tits up at least there's no guaranteed future money.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread 

Post#2120 » by Schad » Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:15 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:Being reported as 1 year/9M for Kiermaier, which appears like a pretty good bargain given his expected value (FGs had him projected for around a 2/20M contract). You can also bet they've guaranteed him some substantial playing time to come here for just the one year as well.


The 1-year term warms me to the signing. I still think there's more downside than upside risk, but if it goes tits up at least there's no guaranteed future money.


While there is some risk if he's totally crocked and can't play CF well, Kiermaier's production was worth in excess of $9m every season from 2014 - 2021 (including the shortened COVID year). Even in 2022, where he missed much of the year, it was worth $8.7m.
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