Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[brwnman]

Gabriel Bustreno: 2.7 fWAR (in 82 games)

Captain Kirk: 4.3 fWAR (in 129 games)

Daulton "Mike Trout" Varsho: 2.2 fWAR (in 70 games)

In all seriousness though, Moreno and Varsho had pretty much identical seasons, and Kirk wasn't even part of the trade. This trade was still a wash. It filled a position of need, but I still feel Moreno could have landed a player better than Varsho.

But then, we're in the playoffs, so who cares.

The trade was Gurriel and Moreno for Varsho. For the millionth F'n time, if people want to discuss the trade- why is Kirk discussed like he was a part of the trade and acquired from Arizona? He was already an all-star here in 2022. Kirk struggled in 2023 and 2024 and I trashed him for being mediocre offensively for two seasons; but he has returned to his 2022 form, and I salute him for being the contributor he was especially in today's game.

Gurriel missed the past 4 weeks to injury, while both Varsho and Moreno missed almost two months to injury also this year. Once again, the trade was Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno. It was a 2 for 1 trade. Kirk should not even be discussed as part of the trade. You can discuss Varsho vs. Moreno and Gurriel, but Kirk was already an all-star here in 2022 and not a part of the deal. Leave him out of the trade discussion once again.

While I agree with the sentiment that Kirk's production shouldn't be completely counted as a return from the Varsho trade, you do have to look at Kirk's production as part of the full context. At the time of the trade, Moreno's value was high and Kirk's value was declining and his production had dipped. The front office made the bet that Kirk would improve and went with him over Moreno. If Kirk was the one traded over Moreno, we would lose whatever Kirk has done for us this season. And who's to say what Moreno would've done for us in a tougher division during a pennant chase.

That's why it's so hard to look at these type of trades in a vacuum.

By the same token, you have to look at Corbin Carroll (the player jays wanted), and it becomes no contest at all.

When you look at that the Jays would have rather traded Kirk, and the Jays would have rather had Carroll - and neither team go their #1 option in that trade - it’s a pretty clear winner.

[brwnman]

people, this here

a real life post from a real life person

on the same day the jays win the division thanks in part to two of the main subjects of this thread

at least marty york can be considered “entertainment”

When stats and facts don't support your argument; it's "let me enjoy this moment. "

If you're going to make a proper argument arguing why you feel the trade was bad, by all means go for it. But please refrain from personal attacks or baiting. Your recent posts have gotten a couple reports already. We have this thread to keep the Varsho trade debate isolated in a single spot, but if it stops being a debate and becomes a name-calling contest, this thread will be locked.

I felt like I responded in kind to the previous comment.


But sure, who would you rather have?

Player A
BA .285
OBP .352
OPS .759
OPS+ 109
SB 1
HR/162 - 15.5
bWAR/162 - 2.46
fWAR/162 - 5.44


Player B
BA .291
OBP .354
OPS .804
OPS+ 120
SB 2
HR/162 - 18.9
bWAR/162 - 3.37
fWAR/162 - 5.89

They play the same position. Earlier in this thread, I posted them with their names and there was no response. I suspect it’s because there’s not much of a choice.

[brwnman]

people, this here

a real life post from a real life person

on the same day the jays win the division thanks in part to two of the main subjects of this thread

at least marty york can be considered “entertainment”

When stats and facts don't support your argument; it's "let me enjoy this moment. "

my argument has been for 2 years, that it was and always will be hilarious that people called this trade "the worst in baseball history" after "gabriel moreno" had a two-week hot streak in october after which people penciled him in for cooperstown. he ultimately ended that postseason with a 101 wRC+. there are plenty of stats and facts that support that 1) the trade was nowhere close to being bad (let alone a historically bad one) and 2) that gabriel moreno is not going to the hall of fame.

Oh you’ve had more to say than that.

But the real argument has always been, jays could have gotten a better player than Varsho in the deal who massively struggled the first two years and was hurt most of this year. Jays had an opportunity and they missed out.

The whole cooperstown talk (one guy on twitter) and historically bad trade is all nonsense.

[s e n s i]

When stats and facts don't support your argument; it's "let me enjoy this moment. "

my argument has been for 2 years, that it was and always will be hilarious that people called this trade "the worst in baseball history" after "gabriel moreno" had a two-week hot streak in october after which people penciled him in for cooperstown. he ultimately ended that postseason with a 101 wRC+. there are plenty of stats and facts that support that 1) the trade was nowhere close to being bad (let alone a historically bad one) and 2) that gabriel moreno is not going to the hall of fame.

Oh you’ve had more to say than that.

But the real argument has always been, jays could have gotten a better player than Varsho in the deal who massively struggled the first two years and was hurt most of this year. Jays had an opportunity and they missed out.

The whole cooperstown talk (one guy on twitter) and historically bad trade is all nonsense.

"all nonsense" yet here's a hilarious collection of moreno takes from this thread (without even unearthing the ones that labeled the trade a bad one):

- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

varsho would not have been a good return if the above were true, obviously, but he has always been a terrific return for the light-hitting gabbie moreno, especially considering the context of already having an elite catcher ourselves, who just sent us to the DS for the first time in 9 years.

[brwnman]

my argument has been for 2 years, that it was and always will be hilarious that people called this trade "the worst in baseball history" after "gabriel moreno" had a two-week hot streak in october after which people penciled him in for cooperstown. he ultimately ended that postseason with a 101 wRC+. there are plenty of stats and facts that support that 1) the trade was nowhere close to being bad (let alone a historically bad one) and 2) that gabriel moreno is not going to the hall of fame.

Oh you’ve had more to say than that.

But the real argument has always been, jays could have gotten a better player than Varsho in the deal who massively struggled the first two years and was hurt most of this year. Jays had an opportunity and they missed out.

The whole cooperstown talk (one guy on twitter) and historically bad trade is all nonsense.

"all nonsense" yet here's a hilarious collection of moreno takes from this thread (without even unearthing the ones that labeled the trade a bad one):

- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

varsho would not have been a good return if the above were true, obviously, but he has always been a terrific return for the light-hitting gabbie moreno, especially considering the context of already having an elite catcher ourselves, who just sent us to the DS for the first time in 9 years.

Similar, if not more outlandish, things have been said about Varsho in this thread. It cuts both ways.

And your argument breaks apart as soon as you call Moreno light-hitting while not acknowledging that Kirk and Varsho have been worse hitters than him even with Moreno's "light-hitting," and then calling Kirk elite while not recognizing Moreno has been better. This is why it's disingenuous. And if our elite catcher sent us to the DS, then I guess people who say Moreno carried the D'Backs to the WS have a point.

[Fairview4Life]

Similar, if not more outlandish, things have been said about Varsho in this thread. It cuts both ways.

Does it though? I mean, you have Randle trolling you...and what else?

[s e n s i]

Oh you’ve had more to say than that.

But the real argument has always been, jays could have gotten a better player than Varsho in the deal who massively struggled the first two years and was hurt most of this year. Jays had an opportunity and they missed out.

The whole cooperstown talk (one guy on twitter) and historically bad trade is all nonsense.

"all nonsense" yet here's a hilarious collection of moreno takes from this thread (without even unearthing the ones that labeled the trade a bad one):

- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

varsho would not have been a good return if the above were true, obviously, but he has always been a terrific return for the light-hitting gabbie moreno, especially considering the context of already having an elite catcher ourselves, who just sent us to the DS for the first time in 9 years.

Similar, if not more outlandish, things have been said about Varsho in this thread. It cuts both ways.

first it's "all nonsense", now it's "similar things have been said about varsho in this thread"

go on, share them. i guarantee you no one here called him a generational player, a future HOF or made asinine player comps for him.

And your argument breaks apart as soon as you call Moreno light-hitting while not acknowledging that Kirk and Varsho have been worse hitters than him even with Moreno's "light-hitting," and then calling Kirk elite while not recognizing Moreno has been better. This is why it's disingenuous. And if our elite catcher sent us to the DS, then I guess people who say Moreno carried the D'Backs to the WS have a point.

yeah i think i'd prefer to acknowledge the incredible contributions both kirk and varsho have had on the team that i support, that without them probably do not win their division. don't really care to go out of my way to acknowledge what gabbie moreno is doing given that my favourite team has won 94 games, their division, and is still playing next week. i'm not really thinking about "what we could have gotten instead" at this point in time.

[brwnman]

"all nonsense" yet here's a hilarious collection of moreno takes from this thread (without even unearthing the ones that labeled the trade a bad one):

- stud catcher
- superstar
- generational catcher
- carrying his team to World Series
- pudge 2.0
- arizona coaches telling him not to run hard on the basepaths as a possible reason for his poor baserunning ability
- comparable to yadier molina
- best catching prospect in the last 20 years
- dbacks legitimate contender for years to come because of moreno
- moulding himself into a HOF catcher

varsho would not have been a good return if the above were true, obviously, but he has always been a terrific return for the light-hitting gabbie moreno, especially considering the context of already having an elite catcher ourselves, who just sent us to the DS for the first time in 9 years.

Similar, if not more outlandish, things have been said about Varsho in this thread. It cuts both ways.

first it's "all nonsense", now it's "similar things have been said about varsho in this thread"

go on, share them. i guarantee you no one here called him a generational player, a future HOF or made asinine player comps for him.

And your argument breaks apart as soon as you call Moreno light-hitting while not acknowledging that Kirk and Varsho have been worse hitters than him even with Moreno's "light-hitting," and then calling Kirk elite while not recognizing Moreno has been better. This is why it's disingenuous. And if our elite catcher sent us to the DS, then I guess people who say Moreno carried the D'Backs to the WS have a point.

yeah i think i'd prefer to acknowledge the incredible contributions both kirk and varsho have had on the team that i support, that without them probably do not win their division. don't really care to go out of my way to acknowledge what gabbie moreno is doing given that my favourite team has won 94 games, their division, and is still playing next week. i'm not really thinking about "what we could have gotten instead" at this point in time.

Like I said, being disingenuous. Ignoring the context of the trade, ignoring the totality of the trade, and ignoring facts/stats. If you apply the same logic, Zona got further in the playoffs in year 1, so Moreno's better.

[brwnman]

with 1 HR from varsho, there is a possibility light-hitting gabby moreno does not match that this season. at least his defense is good, though.

Yep, you were always measured in your responses.

[Mehar]

The trade was Gurriel and Moreno for Varsho. For the millionth F'n time, if people want to discuss the trade- why is Kirk discussed like he was a part of the trade and acquired from Arizona? He was already an all-star here in 2022. Kirk struggled in 2023 and 2024 and I trashed him for being mediocre offensively for two seasons; but he has returned to his 2022 form, and I salute him for being the contributor he was especially in today's game.

Gurriel missed the past 4 weeks to injury, while both Varsho and Moreno missed almost two months to injury also this year. Once again, the trade was Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno. It was a 2 for 1 trade. Kirk should not even be discussed as part of the trade. You can discuss Varsho vs. Moreno and Gurriel, but Kirk was already an all-star here in 2022 and not a part of the deal. Leave him out of the trade discussion once again.

While I agree with the sentiment that Kirk's production shouldn't be completely counted as a return from the Varsho trade, you do have to look at Kirk's production as part of the full context. At the time of the trade, Moreno's value was high and Kirk's value was declining and his production had dipped. The front office made the bet that Kirk would improve and went with him over Moreno. If Kirk was the one traded over Moreno, we would lose whatever Kirk has done for us this season. And who's to say what Moreno would've done for us in a tougher division during a pennant chase.

That's why it's so hard to look at these type of trades in a vacuum.

By the same token, you have to look at Corbin Carroll (the player jays wanted), and it becomes no contest at all.

When you look at that the Jays would have rather traded Kirk, and the Jays would have rather had Carroll - and neither team go their #1 option in that trade - it’s a pretty clear winner.

Very fair point and I agree. If people want to include Kirk's numbers in this trade discussion, from the Arizona perspective you have to look at Carroll and include his numbers. Then it makes it a clear winner for Arizona, since Arizona wanted to move one of their excess outfielders that off-season.

The Jays initially wanted Carroll but had to settle for Varsho since Arizona was not interested in moving him, unless Toronto sent back a couple of more top prospects and improved their offer. Atkins balked at that, and turned his attention to Varsho instead. At the end of the day, it was a 2 for 1 Trade. You evaluate trades on the players you gave up and received back. Anything more than that, means people are throwing their own agenda in the equation to argue the trade is lopsided for one team compared to the other. No need to play that game.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yet again with that false analogy. There is only one catcher position, there are three outfielder positions. The Jays, in making the decision to trade Moreno over Kirk (an outstanding decision both at the time and even more in retrospect), had to choose one of their two long-term options at that position to strengthen the rest of their team. They chose well in doing so and got one of the best outfielders in the game in exchange for the slap hitting C they discarded.

Arizona did not have to make the same choice between Carroll and Varsho (nor is there any indication they ever intended to trade Carroll at all). They could have easily kept both of them and played one in CF and one in RF. It was never an either/or decision like it was with Kirk or Moreno.

The fact that the Kirk/Varsho haters have resorted to spreading these lies is yet more evidence of their failure.

[Mehar]

Yet again with that false analogy. There is only one catcher position, there are three outfielder positions. The Jays, in making the decision to trade Moreno over Kirk (an outstanding decision both at the time and even more in retrospect), had to choose one of their two long-term options at that position to strengthen the rest of their team. They chose well in doing so and got one of the best outfielders in the game in exchange for the slap hitting C they discarded.

Arizona did not have to make the same choice between Carroll and Varsho (nor is there any indication they ever intended to trade Carroll at all). They could have easily kept both of them and played one in CF and one in RF. It was never an either/or decision like it was with Kirk or Moreno.

The fact that the Kirk/Varsho haters have resorted to spreading these lies is yet more evidence of their failure.

The bottom line is this was a 2 for 1 Trade. It was not 2 for 2 or even 3 for 2. People need to stick to the facts. When I go on and read the posts on this thread, you would think the Jays acquired Kirk from Arizona in this trade also. Kirk was already an all-star here in 2022. He was mediocre in 2023 and 2024, but regained his 2022 form which I commend him for (especially in helping to clinch the divison).

If people still want to discuss this trade, they can go and discuss the merits of Gurriel and Moreno vs. Varsho. Anything other then that, it is people like you wanting to insert their own bias and talking points discussing this trade. Otherwise, Arizona can easily argue that they kept Carroll, acquired Gurriel and Moreno (leading them to the World Series in 2023) in exchange for sending out Varsho. So, people in Arizona can argue they won the trade.

Just utter nonsense. Stick with the facts. I know it is hard for especially you. This was a 2 for 1 deal, and if people still want to discuss this trade- they should weigh the merits of the 2 for 1 trade. It was not 3 for 2 or even 2 for 2. For the Millionth F'n Time- it was a 2 for 1 trade. When I look at the official trade, it was Lourdes Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno for Daulton Varsho.

Varsho sucked offensively for the first year of the deal, and hit .214 last year (hitting below a terrible .200 for 5 months of the baseball year). I thought when the trade was made, that they could have done all they could to get a guy like Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh with Moreno as the Centerpiece. I was not opposed to trading Moreno, but wanted a much better hitter (who would have done wonders for this joke offense of 2023 and 2024 than an underwhelming Varsho). I am focused on the Playoffs, but if people want to talk about this trade- stick to the facts of the trade.

[Tripod]

People just need to move on.

[Duffman100]

People just need to move on.

Nah we need to hit 200 pages.

[Parataxis]

People just need to move on.

Nah we need to hit 200 pages.

I love that there's more posts this year in a thread about a three year old trade than there are in the entire rest of the non-Blue Jays Real GM Baseball forums

[brwnman]

Yet again with that false analogy. There is only one catcher position, there are three outfielder positions. The Jays, in making the decision to trade Moreno over Kirk (an outstanding decision both at the time and even more in retrospect), had to choose one of their two long-term options at that position to strengthen the rest of their team. They chose well in doing so and got one of the best outfielders in the game in exchange for the slap hitting C they discarded.

Arizona did not have to make the same choice between Carroll and Varsho (nor is there any indication they ever intended to trade Carroll at all). They could have easily kept both of them and played one in CF and one in RF. It was never an either/or decision like it was with Kirk or Moreno.

The fact that the Kirk/Varsho haters have resorted to spreading these lies is yet more evidence of their failure.

Zona had to make a decision. They were loaded with OFs, they couldn't have easily moved Varsho to RF because Carroll was coming up to play full-time in 2023. They had Jake McCarthy (exciting rookie at the time) that needed playing time as well, and Alek Thomas was still somewhat of a prospect. With all that, Zona needed offense and they clearly and rightfully didn't believe in Varsho's bat.

Fact is, Zona would be a decidedly worse team with Varsho on their team in 2023 instead of Gurriel and Moreno. That's not even remotely debatable. Gurriel alone skewed the trade in Zona's favour in 2023.

The false analogy here is that you think the decision was that there was 3 OF spots remaining to be filled versus 1 catcher spot when it was 1 OF spot where Zona needed offense; the other 2 were already filled. And even with the Jays, they wanted Moreno's bat moving forward and they tried playing him in various positions in 2022 (2B, 3B, OF); so maybe catcher wasn't the only option had he remained with the team.

And the hilarious notion that Jays kept the better catcher:

Kirk v Moreno
2023-2025

Kirk
Games 356
Avg .263
OBP .335
OPS .717
HR 28
OPS+ 100
bWAR 6.2

Moreno
Games 291
Avg .278
OBP .348
OPS .406
HR 21
OPS+ 108
bWAR 8.5

Jays would have preferred to keep Moreno over Kirk, if they had a choice. Teams didn't believe in Kirk's 2022 season and his ability to keep the weight down in future years. Let's not forget that Kirk became the backup in 2023 to Jansen and in 2024 until injuries (then trade) to Jansen forced him to become the starter again.

[Randle McMurphy]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

[Duffman100]

ELI5, diff between fWAR and bWAR and why each favour Moreno/Kirk differently?

[Raps in 4]

ELI5, diff between fWAR and bWAR and why each favour Moreno/Kirk differently?

They measure defensive impact using different stats (UZR vs. DRS). They technically use different offensive stats too, but OPS+ and wRC+ end up being almost identical most of the time so it doesn't matter. This article says that DRS incorporates more data than UZR which estimates more things.

I've always preferred Fangraphs since I find their sorting tools easier to use. They also write good articles. Which one is actually better? I don't know, since defensive impact is so hard to capture. The online consensus nowadays seems to be that OAA is the best defensive stat...

[Raps in 4]

2023-2025 Kirk: 9.7 fWAR
2023-2025 Moreno: 7.5 fWAR
2023-2025 Varsho: 7.3 fWAR
2023 Lourdes: 2.0 fWAR

They chose the best catcher of the two and they acquired the best player in the deal (if Varsho wasn't hurt for large portions of the 2024-2025 seasons, he amasses about 4 more fWAR in that time and maybe more given that he reached a new/improved level as a player in 2025).

Not only is it a clear win for the Jays by any metric, it's easily the best trade this front office has made in its decade running the team. No amount of lies will change that.

The question was always, "could the Jays have gotten more than Varsho"?

Varsho is a 3-5 WAR player. That's a good player, but a top-5 prospect like Moreno had a lot of value. I was hoping we'd aim bigger.