The_Hater wrote:Skin Blues wrote:The_Hater wrote:
xFIP is nice but and he has had some bad luck and some poor pitching with runners on base but his velocity rate is down and his HR and BB rates are up. His HR/FB rate is almost double last season. His xFIP is the highest it's been since 2011 when he was closer to average than elite. Perhaps it's a blip or perhaps there are a lot of signs pointing towards regression here.
His BB-rate went from 5.5% to 5.3%. Negligible difference. HR rate is effectively random when you are looking at small sample sizes. Price's 2015 and 2016 performance is just about as close to identical as you can get. Velocity was down the first couple months but since then it's back up to pretty much the same as it was this time last year.
Time will tell. I believe that when every single measure is trending the wrong way that it's likely a sign of regression. Perhaps he's just being hurt by his ballpark more than anything else. On the flip side, perhaps I'm just hoping things are trending this way.
Even if as you say he is worth 30 mill or so this year..the idea was that he should be worth more now to offset the costs in the back end of the contract.
Would anybody here really be happy to pick up that contract right now? I think it would be fair to say that it is more likely we see the Red Sox having to pay part of this contract to be traded rather than a team having to give up top prospects for the contract.
