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2019-20 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#221 » by Schad » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:32 pm

Brinbe wrote:i never said rogers were cheap or that they wouldn't ever spend. so, you're missing the mark there. i'm saying they don't know what the hell they're doing. giving a directive of competing with a rapidly aging core is part of that. as well as running around aimlessly in this fa market.


I agree that a lack of direction has been a problem. I disagree that an unwillingness to throw big bucks at free agents is part of that problem. Impatience has been the hallmark, generally, and for once we seem to be willing to exercise a bit of patience...trying to acquire players that we believe make sense, but not throwing money that we'll later regret at lesser options if our targets are not viable.

and i think drafting high in baseball has become more of a sure thing. and they've done an okay to good job drafting (how much of that is cherington though?) and the arms on the way should hopefully be decent. but being a good gm means more than just drafting well. BC arguably drafted well too. it was everything else that was trash. same thing here too.

of course we gotta wait for this all to play out. but its a worrisome pattern.


But, I mean, they haven't drafted high. Our average draft position, taking out the comp pick, is 16th. By definition, in a 30 team league, we've drafted later than the average team.

Beyond that, while we've done well with our first rounders, our young major leaguers came from later picks: Bichette was drafted 66th overall, Biggio was 162nd. The degree to which that can be credited to others is certainly open to debate, as it is with every franchise, but it'd likely be Brian Parker (who has already moved on) and Steve Sanders, rather than Cherington, as they were the scouting directors.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#222 » by polo007 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:40 pm

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#223 » by Brinbe » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:54 pm

Schad wrote:
Brinbe wrote:i never said rogers were cheap or that they wouldn't ever spend. so, you're missing the mark there. i'm saying they don't know what the hell they're doing. giving a directive of competing with a rapidly aging core is part of that. as well as running around aimlessly in this fa market.


I agree that a lack of direction has been a problem. I disagree that an unwillingness to throw big bucks at free agents is part of that problem. Impatience has been the hallmark, generally, and for once we seem to be willing to exercise a bit of patience...trying to acquire players that we believe make sense, but not throwing money that we'll later regret at lesser options if our targets are not viable.

and i think drafting high in baseball has become more of a sure thing. and they've done an okay to good job drafting (how much of that is cherington though?) and the arms on the way should hopefully be decent. but being a good gm means more than just drafting well. BC arguably drafted well too. it was everything else that was trash. same thing here too.

of course we gotta wait for this all to play out. but its a worrisome pattern.


But, I mean, they haven't drafted high. Our average draft position, taking out the comp pick, is 16th. By definition, in a 30 team league, we've drafted later than the average team.

Beyond that, while we've done well with our first rounders, our young major leaguers came from later picks: Bichette was drafted 66th overall, Biggio was 162nd. The degree to which that can be credited to others is certainly open to debate, as it is with every franchise, but it'd likely be Brian Parker (who has already moved on) and Steve Sanders, rather than Cherington, as they were the scouting directors.

i definitely agree that simply throwing money at the problem is not the way. just frustrating to see them strike out so far.

and my point, which i probably didn't make clear enough, isn't that they drafted high, just that the days of baseball drafting (relative to basketball) being a complete crapshoot (at least with top draft picks) i think is over. that might be wrong though.

and yes, good point on parker/sanders. but i suppose shapiro/atkins plays a part in delegating/putting those guys in those positions.

anyway, you've always been the reasonable/patient even-keeled voice on here, (something I lack and in short supply in jays fandom these days), and i respect your opinion. whenever you crack on this FO, that's when we know sht has definitely hit the fan haha.

and it's all good anyway, staff ace James Dykstra obviously gonna lead us to a WS chip :lol:
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#224 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:51 am

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#225 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:52 am

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#226 » by Schad » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:33 am

I'm still definitely not completely sold on the FO, but to date I think their direction (at least after the refusal to rebuild earlier) has been logical, although some of the individual moves haven't been stellar. At the moment, I'm still more concerned about us getting into a Red Sox-style payroll bomb than underspending...we should absolutely add, but the scenario that scares me is one where we lard up the payroll and fail to see enough of a spike in revenues that Rogers okays another large spike when the kids hit arb eligibility at the same time after 2021. We always have to keep in the back of our mind that Rogers will get squirrelly the moment their bottom line looks to be endangered.

The easy thing to do, from a job security perspective, would be to mash the gas pedal now, and hope to earn an extension off "we improved by 15 wins, if you extrapolate out we'll win 120 in short order!" I appreciate that they at least seem to be taking the long view, because we aren't going to have this good of a chance at a sustained period of success for a very long time.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#227 » by Al_Oliver » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:47 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:Russell Martin was brought up by The_Hater ^. He was the final piece and our largest actual signing. Nearly everyone else was brought in via trade but AA is looked at as a good GM by many Jays fans. Shatkins hasn't really had the opportunity yet.

AA and Martin probably crossed paths once or twice in Montreal before getting him and I thought it was weird he signed with the Pirates for just 2 years, perhaps was told we need some time to get better but we want to sign you, and only took 2 years with the Pirates then joined us. That was a huge contract but probably worth it.


AA is looked at as being a good GM while he was here because he is Canadian and threw all of his chips into the middle of the table after several years of largely being trash (Marlins trade and Syndergaard blunders come to mind)

At least he left on a high note...
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#228 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:35 pm

Cole's record deal may be trouble for Blue Jays on multiple levels - Sportsnet.ca

The implications of Cole’s deal may extend even further for the Blue Jays, and not only in terms of optics. Now that the Yankees have signed Cole, his other finalists will re-engage in the pitching market, creating competition for Toronto. And the possibility of a reunion with a familiar face merits a little consideration, too.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are of particular interest here, since Blue Jays target Hyun-jin Ryu may be more likely to return to L.A. now that Cole has agreed to terms with the Yankees. For now, at least the Dodgers appear focused elsewhere, with Madison Bumgarner atop their list, according to Ken Rosenthal.

Regardless, there’s plenty of competition in the market for pitching with the Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Angels viewed as major players. Considering those teams seem motivated to add, it’s likely the Blue Jays would be paying premium dollars for Ryu or Dallas Keuchel, the top pitchers remaining aside from Bumgarner.

The more likely targets for the Blue Jays are in a distinctly different tier, and while the likes of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello and Wade Miley are all capable pitchers, they don’t match up with the newest Yankee. After what he did last year, Cole’s on a potential Hall of Fame track.

Once Cole’s deal becomes official, he’ll displace Strasburg atop the list of biggest pitching contracts ever just one day after Strasburg passed David Price. But even after negotiating the Strasburg and Cole deals, agent Scott Boras still has plenty of work ahead. He represents Anthony Rendon, the top position player available, plus Ryu and Keuchel, two pitchers on the Blue Jays’ radar.

“The (Blue Jays) have been consistent in their interest levels, and have been in communication with us at the GM meetings and here,” Boras told a large gathering of reporters Tuesday afternoon.


Maybe those discussions will lead somewhere, or maybe not. This much is clear, though: the Yankees just became a lot harder to beat. For a Blue Jays team looking to transition out of their rebuild and into contention, the path to the post-season is now considerably tougher.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#229 » by Wo1verine » Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:01 pm

If Ryu is really our top target then offer 4/$80M ( if needed) and front load the contract.

$30M
$25M
$15M
$10M

Or

$25M
$25M
$15M
$15M
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#230 » by polo007 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:39 pm

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#231 » by agkagk » Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:53 pm

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Dear god no.

This guy literally misses every other season. If ever there was a pitcher to NOT offer a 3 or 4 year contract to, its this guy.

Please don’t get that desperate shatkins.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#232 » by Brinbe » Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:49 pm

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we're on the board.

forget cole, we got roark!
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#233 » by Schad » Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:49 pm

Well, that's the risk involved. When healthy Ryu is a top-quality pitcher...from 2013-2019, his numbers versus some other name brand starters:

Ryu: 79 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 3.65 SIERA (lower is better for all of those).
Bumgarner: 81 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 3.51 SIERA.
Verlander: 78 ERA-, 81 FIP-, 3.48 SIERA.
Price: 82 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 3.42 SIERA.

You'd probably peg him a shade behind those guys, but not far behind, and unlike Bumgarner (whose performance has trended down), Ryu's coming off his best year and is now three years removed from arm surgery, as his last major injury was his a groin tear. But "when healthy" is definitely doing a lot of lifting; labrum surgery is major, elbow surgery is always major, and he has missed almost as many starts as he has made.

But even missing half his starts, he's actually been decent value for money: about $16.7m/year, using the fWAR/$ going rate. Four years would make things nervy as he also isn't terribly young -- three years would be preferable -- but he's also one of the few guys on the market who anchors a rotation when he's fit.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#234 » by Schad » Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:55 pm

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we're on the board.

forget cole, we got roark!


It's hard to get terribly excited about the league's most average starting pitcher. But hey, more average pitchers means fewer sub-average pitchers, I guess.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#235 » by phillipmike » Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:21 pm

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#236 » by polo007 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:54 am

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#237 » by agkagk » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:08 pm

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Significant is all relative when in relation to a 3 year 9 million dollar guarantee.

Adorbs :roll:

I want to pinch both Ben Nicholson’s and shatkins cheeks right now.

SIGNIFICANT!


Ps Roark is a good signing. Not the guy we wanted, but the guy we needed. Very Marco Estrada-ish.

Hopefully we can build on this signing.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#238 » by polo007 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:50 pm

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#239 » by Cyrus » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:52 pm

I wonder why if they want a "Durable" guy, whose been avgish the last while, with a track record in the east, why didn't Jays go after - Rick Porcello? at 1 year 10 mill, or say we had to offer him 1 year - 12 mill to come to Jays, if he bet on himself and looks good, we can move him, if he sucks or similar to what he was last year, then whatever it's 1 year and he clogged up some innings. It's not like Roark or him are going to be part of the rotation's future going forward.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Thread 

Post#240 » by Tanner » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:19 pm

Cyrus wrote:I wonder why if they want a "Durable" guy, whose been avgish the last while, with a track record in the east, why didn't Jays go after - Rick Porcello? at 1 year 10 mill, or say we had to offer him 1 year - 12 mill to come to Jays, if he bet on himself and looks good, we can move him, if he sucks or similar to what he was last year, then whatever it's 1 year and he clogged up some innings. It's not like Roark or him are going to be part of the rotation's future going forward.


The Jays are coming off 3 straight bad seasons (the last one being an outright tanking) and play in the AL East where they have to face the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox for 33% of the season. A pitcher like Porcello who wants to go back on the market next year won't even look at the Jays for that reason. That's not even factoring the Canada aspect. The Jays got Roark because he didn't have a big market and they overpaid. Pitchers who have other options for similar money are likely going to choose the other options. Roark is so average that I doubt any team really valued him. He has value to the Jays since they need innings, even average ones, and he provides that.

What annoys me is the Jays should have gotten Roark last season. The Nats gave him away and he was on a 1/10 contract in his final year of arb. But I guess they wanted a low payroll tanking in 2019.

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