2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

Post #221 » by **Schad** » Fri Jul 2, 2021 1:56 pm

Definitely sucks for Moreno. The positive spin is that it probably doesn't significantly change his trajectory; he probably wasn't going to make the majors this year, but will be the odds-on favourite to be our starter out of ST in 2022. He'll just get less/no time in Buffalo on the way there.

polo007 · Post #222 » by **polo007** » Fri Jul 2, 2021 9:07 pm

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polo007 · Post #223 » by **polo007** » Fri Jul 2, 2021 11:01 pm

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polo007 · Post #224 » by **polo007** » Thu Jul 8, 2021 10:42 pm

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polo007 · Post #225 » by **polo007** » Fri Jul 9, 2021 2:03 am

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polo007 · Post #226 » by **polo007** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:52 am

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vaff87 · Post #227 » by **vaff87** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:01 pm

Apparently Griffin Conine leads the minor leagues with 19 HR. Of course, he’s also striking out over 36% of the time as a 23 year old in high-A.

The_Hater · Post #228 » by **The_Hater** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:21 am

Can’t even see the plate in the video. Obviously the catcher was set up well inside.

polo007 wrote:

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Post #229 » by **Schad** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:12 am

Orelvis is putting up very impressive power numbers for a 19 year old: .242 iso and 11 HRs. He strikes out rather a lot, but his overall numbers are good otherwise.

vaff87 · Post #230 » by **vaff87** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:07 am

Schad wrote:Orelvis is putting up very impressive power numbers for a 19 year old: .242 iso and 11 HRs. He strikes out rather a lot, but his overall numbers are good otherwise.

4 hits tonight, including a HR and 2 doubles, and he also drew 2 walks. Has his OPS up to .906.

Post #231 » by **Schad** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 4:30 pm

vaff87 wrote:
Schad wrote:Orelvis is putting up very impressive power numbers for a 19 year old: .242 iso and 11 HRs. He strikes out rather a lot, but his overall numbers are good otherwise.

4 hits tonight, including a HR and 2 doubles, and he also drew 2 walks. Has his OPS up to .906.

His July numbers: .383/.482/.872, while striking out a bunch. Basically, when he doesn't strike out, very good things happen.

vaff87 · Post #232 » by **vaff87** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:02 pm

Schad wrote:
vaff87 wrote:
Schad wrote:Orelvis is putting up very impressive power numbers for a 19 year old: .242 iso and 11 HRs. He strikes out rather a lot, but his overall numbers are good otherwise.

4 hits tonight, including a HR and 2 doubles, and he also drew 2 walks. Has his OPS up to .906.

His July numbers: .383/.482/.872, while striking out a bunch. Basically, when he doesn't strike out, very good things happen.

I don’t know how worried to be about the strike outs. When Ronald Acuna was his age, he started a level higher in Hi-A, went to AA, and then AAA. At Hi-A he struck out over 31% of the time, but that dropped when he went to AA, and dropped even further when he went to AAA. Also, Acuna wasn’t hitting for the power Orelvis is hitting with, at that time.

I also remember being worried about Tatis’ strike outs when he was in the minors. But when he was at the level Orelvis is at, he was a year younger and striking out about 2% less, with an iso power only .017 less. Then when he was 19 like Orelvis, he was in AA striking out about the same amount Orelvis is striking out now, while hitting for an iso power about .035 points less.

So those guys are two extreme examples of players who are on a HOF path early in their careers. But I’m just trying to figure out how worried I should be about Orelvis’ strike outs. I feel like maybe if you’re showing that amount of power at that age, and the strike outs aren’t way out of whack, that probably indicates the hitting ability is there, it just requires some fine tuning.

Post #233 » by **Schad** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:59 pm

Yeah, I tend to give guys much more of a pass for high K rates as teens in the low-minors, versus older players with high K rates in the mid-levels. Orelvis' K rate isn't fatal, and the rest of the profile is so good that I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 30 or 40 league-wide entering next season. And rising quickly enough that he'll enter "untouchable in all but the biggest deals" territory in short order.

But it's going to be the thing to watch as he progresses, because there's no question that he crushes the ball when he makes contact.

vaff87 · Post #234 » by **vaff87** » Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:20 am

Schad wrote:Yeah, I tend to give guys much more of a pass for high K rates as teens in the low-minors, versus older players with high K rates in the mid-levels. Orelvis' K rate isn't fatal, and the rest of the profile is so good that I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 30 or 40 league-wide entering next season. And rising quickly enough that he'll enter "untouchable in all but the biggest deals" territory in short order.

But it's going to be the thing to watch as he progresses, because there's no question that he crushes the ball when he makes contact.

3 hits, 2 HR, and 7 RBI so far tonight for Orelvis.

Edit: add another HR and 2 more RBI to that total. 4-5, 3 HR, 9 RBI.

bluerap23 · Post #235 » by **bluerap23** » Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:57 pm

vaff87 wrote:
Schad wrote:Yeah, I tend to give guys much more of a pass for high K rates as teens in the low-minors, versus older players with high K rates in the mid-levels. Orelvis' K rate isn't fatal, and the rest of the profile is so good that I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 30 or 40 league-wide entering next season. And rising quickly enough that he'll enter "untouchable in all but the biggest deals" territory in short order.

But it's going to be the thing to watch as he progresses, because there's no question that he crushes the ball when he makes contact.

3 hits, 2 HR, and 7 RBI so far tonight for Orelvis.

Edit: add another HR and 2 more RBI to that total. 4-5, 3 HR, 9 RBI.

Send this man to Vancouver.

polo007 · Post #236 » by **polo007** » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:58 pm

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Post #237 » by **Schad** » Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:29 pm

Kevin Smith with his 16th HR in the first inning today, off a rehabbing Carlos Carrasco. I reeeeeally think it's about time we find out if we have something there.

Post #238 » by **Schad** » Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:14 am

Bowden Francis -- part of the return for Rowdy, ranked 16th in our org by Fangraphs -- has had a good start to life with the organization. He's a weird soft-tossing pitcher with plus command and ridiculously high spin rate on his fastball given his low velo, and he no-hit the Binghampton Mets through six before Albert Almora (an absolute Guy) took him deep to start the seventh.

Decidedly possible that we could see him this year, either as an occasional starter or reliever, though as he is not on the 40-man that comes with the usual roster complications.

polo007 · Post #239 » by **polo007** » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:29 am

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Natural11 · Post #240 » by **Natural11** » Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:05 am

Kirk 4 for 5 with a HR and 5 RBI today. His AAA average is up to a respectable .326/.877

Here we are with the big club hoping that McGuire can drop down a bunt every now and then or Jansen can close his eyes and run into a homerun every couple of weeks.