Stroman to Mets for Kay, Woods Richardson

[polo007]

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[Ado05]

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[polo007]

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According to The Athletic:

The 28-year-old right-hander was the supposed prize of the starting pitching trade market. He’s enjoying one of his best seasons as a pro, with a 2.96 ERA, a .656 OPS against and his first career All-Star selection. He comes with an extra year of control. So, when the Mets (the Mets?!) acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson – non-Top-100 arms from a system that Baseball America recently ranked 26th out of 30 – it surprised many.

“Average return. Relief risk on both arms,” said one scout from an American League club. “The return seemed a little light,” an NL scout said. One rival general manager less equivocal: “I was shocked it wasn’t more.”

The Mets underpaying the Blue Jays for one of the premium arms on the trade market would appear to have little to do with the Diamondbacks. But every deadline-proximate trade creates ripples across the market. The top pitcher controlled through the 2020 season (rental with benefits?) is off the market at a surprisingly low price. The Diamondbacks have one, Robbie Ray, who will become a free agent after next season. Did the Stroman deal raise Ray’s trade value, or did it lower it?

The Blue Jays’ return may have dictated the price for pitchers with one full year of control remaining, and some laughed at the Mets for setting the market against themselves. After all, they’re not in the playoff hunt this year and they have other pitchers – pending free-agent Zack Wheeler and the more-controllable Noah Syndergaard – said to be available in trades. And it is entirely possible that, now that Stroman was had cheaply, starter-needy teams will be less likely to pay anything more than that for Ray. “It determines how the other teams see (Ray),” the GM said.

But other teams are not a monolith, and their opinions about Ray, compared with Stroman and compared with other pitchers with similar amounts of control, vary. The GM said his team had Stroman ranked over Ray, but the AL scout had those two flip-flopped. The fact that Ray misses bats and Stroman doesn’t mattered more to him than the fact that Ray misses the strike zone far more often than the new Mets right-hander does. It also matters that 27-year-old Ray is a left-hander who can get righties out. “I’d think a similar return (for Ray) is likely,” the AL scout said. “Maybe a tick better.”

(For what it’s worth, Mike Minor – also controlled through next season, but who, at 31, is significantly older than Stroman and Ray – has his supporters, too. His ERA is nearly a run lower than Ray’s, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is almost identical. “I’d probably take Minor over (Ray),” the AL scout said. “Minor (has) a little less stuff but you can trust the command quite a bit more.”)

[polo007]

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[gundysmullet]

Bowden gives the trade a B- for the Jays, a B+ for the Mets.

Bowden: Grading the Marcus Stroman trade for the Blue Jays and the Mets - The Athletic

The Mets intend to hold on to Stroman rather than turn around and trade him by the deadline, according to club sources.

As for the Blue Jays’ return, Kay, 24, pitched at both Double A and Triple A this year, and in 19 games started, he was 8-6 with a 3.13 ERA. He struck out 96 and walked 34 in 97.2 innings of work. Richardson, 18, was the Mets’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft. He was 3-8 in the South Atlantic League with a 4.25 ERA in 20 starts, an 11.1 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio and 2.0 walks per nine.

The Blue Jays felt this offer was far superior to any other that had put in front of them, including those from the Yankees, and so they decided to pull the trigger before the Mets could decide to go in another direction. The two prospects the Mets gave up are solid but not elite, yet they still were seemingly better than anything else the Blue Jays could get. And the Mets have so many balls in the air right now that the Blue Jays were afraid if they didn’t act fast, this trade opportunity would evaporate.

The Blue Jays insist that they really like the upside of both pitchers they received in this deal. Time will eventually reveal how accurate their assessment is. In the meantime, here are my initial grades for both teams:

Mets trade grade: B+
Blue Jays trade grade: B-

Man, that article is not a ringing endorsement of management. It seems they operate based in fear.

[vaff87]

I’ve read enough asinine comments from anonymous scouts and executives over the years, that I generally take what they say with a grain of salt.

[gundysmullet]

I’ve read enough asinine comments from anonymous scouts and executives over the years, that I generally take what they say with a grain of salt.

I know you don’t mean to but you’re close to coming off like a shill for management. It’s OK to be a fan and admit that they are not that good at trading. Because they are not. When the overwhelming majority of those “in the know” think that the Mets won the deal, it’s probably true. As I said in another thread, they still had a few days left and rushed it and made a fear-based transaction. Pretty disappointing to be honest. But hopefully the gamble pays off.

[fbalmeida]

This is clearly a trade where they believe in what Woods-Richardson has done, and think he’ll essentially be an untouchable prospect come next year or the year after.

I'd really like to know what the metrics are on MLB prospects. Essentially what are the odds that a decent prospect can in fact become a productive everyday player/rotation pitcher?

Giving Stroman away for:

• A solid 18 year old prospect who in 5 years may just as easily end up in an all-star game, forgetting baseball to pursue higher education and a professional career, or anywhere in between;
• along with a 24 year old Anthony Kay, tossing 6.6 ERA in AAA (by comparison, at his age, Stroman already had 30 major league starts, 15-6 with a 3.32 ERA).

... when you're three lunches away from the trade deadline, is just dreadfully incompetent, unless some highly reliable scout is highly certain that Woods-Richardson is a bona fide talent in the making.

Shatkins either think really highly of that prospect and really wanted him, or they are simply terrible at their jobs. Place your bets.

I'm all for scouting, stocking up the farm, and developing players, but I've always been highly skeptical of trading established players for other team's prospects.

Reminds me of how so many hockey fans thought their team should tank to steal Magnus Paajärvi early in the draft. Exactly. What would the NHL be without him...

[And1Skip]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

[BigLeagueChew]

We kept Ricky Romero at a younger age, re-signed him for 5 years, how did that work out rather than grabbing some prospects. Rather than having him even be a #4-5 starter when we were good enough we had to get Buerhle or Dickey, or another reilable starter to finish off a respectable playoff rotation rather than relying on anyone from within.

[ratul]

Lol, comparing Stroman to Ricky Romero as a way to defend this bad trade. Okie

[vaff87]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

He very well might be next year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing.

[dagger]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

This is the problem with prospects and the whole discussion over yesterday's trades. Unless you are an aspiring talent analyst - we may actually have one or two on this board - we are poorly placed to judge prospects if we only go by either their draft position or their current admittedly arbitrary placement in prospect ranking lists. Kay was a #1 pick who lost a year because of TJ surgery, and Woods Richardson was a second rounder in 2018. Neither was in a top 100 list, though Kay had a very good AA season and earned a promotion to AAA where, based on a small sample, he wracked up some ugly numbers.

Kay is either a former first rounder who has made up ground lost to his TJ surgery and was on the cusp of the top 100, or he hit a ceiling in AAA and the Mets gave up on him. Pick your narrative, and I believe your will pick based on your existing view of Shatkins. If you are a shill, you take the former. If you are a hater, Kay is a bad pickup as a front end (closer to the majors) of the Stroman trade.

Now for Woods-Richardson. He was a second rounder last season, got an overslot bonus, is a hard throwing very projectable, physically appropriate for a typical velocity FB based pitcher. He's a reasonably good comp for Brady Singer, who was our 2015 second round pick as a prep pick, went unsigned, and was KC's 2018 first rounder as a college pitcher. (Shatkins turned the comp pick for Singer into Bo Bichette). Singer is now now MLB pipeline's #56 overall prospect, and #2 KC prospect. He's made it to Double A after a June promotion from Advanced A. He has some decent but not spectacular numbers at AA - if that's all you go by. His scouting profile remains very good, but right now, based on an opponents' BA of .274, I'd guess he will need some time in AA/AAA, and will make the majors in 2021. Woods-Richardson just got promoted by the Mets to Advanced A at age 18 - he has been assigned to Dunedin rather than Lansing. We know from the tendencies of ratings sites that he's just going to enter the territory where his ability to further project will start to get him consideration for Top 100 lists. (The history of Top 100 lists is also loaded with misses - both those who make it and flop, or those, like a Lourdes Gurriel Jr, who never make it on to such a list for any number of reasons but still make it as a quality major league player).

As a prep draftee, Woods Richardson has reached his fourth level at age 18. He won't turn 19 until after the season. If you want to compare him to say, Adam Kloffenstein, our second rounder last year who was also overslot, a very projectable prep pitcher who also likely merited first round consideration and is doing very well in Vancouver, Woods-Richardson is moving faster, maybe because of an 11K/9inning strikeout rate. In any case, if you like Kloffenstein, and I do, then you have to like Woods-Richardson. Both have the makings of middle of the rotation righthanders who can slot in behind Nate Pearson, a list that is deepening with the likes of Alek Manoah, Eric Pardhino or just behind him, and ahead of, say Kay, Ryan Borucki, or a long shot like Sean Reid Foley if he ever discovers better control.

You can come up with a completely different narrative for Woods-Richardson, just as you can for Kay, and I get it. But I submit that your choice of narrative is predetermined by your view of the current Jays management.

Meanwhile, as I see it, the Jays have a nice future rotation to look forward to, and a nice infield and catching situation. Gurriel has seemingly nailed down left field for the long term. And we may well end up with surpluses that can be used to get a stud centre field prospect. Mind you, the quality of the placeholders for the OF can improve as well. I am keeping an eye on Cal Stevenson for one, and of course we have infield prospects who can be converted into corner outfielders.

Looking at the team currently on the field, its record, its weak pitching and sloppy D, and you are perfectly reasonable taking a glass half empty view. Or you can see what's taking shape in the farm system and prefer half full. Beyond that, the Jays are also moving into the position where they will have more latitude to at least sound out a better quality of free agent, if not next winter, than certainly by 2021 or 2022.

[And1Skip]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

He very well might be next year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing.

So he should have said "We feel that if he keeps up his progress so far that next year, he could be one the most exciting prospects in baseball". Not "right now". Typical Ross Atkins speak.

[guvernator]

Lol, comparing Stroman to Ricky Romero as a way to defend this bad trade. Okie

Ricky Romero's AS season far surpasses anything Stroman has done or is likely to do. RickRo fell off because of injury otherwise some people were looking at him as the next Santana.

[guvernator]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

He very well might be next year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing.

So he should have said "We feel that if he keeps up his progress so far that next year, he could be one the most exciting prospects in baseball". Not "right now". Typical Ross Atkins speak.

Actually, he already is. Its just that prospect lists tend to lag behind on these things.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/7/29/8934275/toronto-blue-jays-new-york-mets-simeon-woods-richardson-anthony-kay-marcus-stroman-trade-deadlne

[BigLeagueChew]

Lol, comparing Stroman to Ricky Romero as a way to defend this bad trade. Okie

i did no such thing. Your takes are repetitively bad.

[YelloC]

Atkins is full of hot air. The dude literally will say 1000 words and none of them will have any substance. He talks in circles, says the same thing in 10 different ways and throws out platitudes and sports analogies ad nauseum.

[vaff87]

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OK, I agree that Simeon Woods-Richardson has shown some potential and is has good frame for a pitcher, but lets not go overboard to try to defend yourself and the trade.

He very well might be next year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing.

So he should have said "We feel that if he keeps up his progress so far that next year, he could be one the most exciting prospects in baseball". Not "right now". Typical Ross Atkins speak.

He didn’t say “right now”.

[And1Skip]

He very well might be next year, if he keeps doing what he’s doing.

So he should have said "We feel that if he keeps up his progress so far that next year, he could be one the most exciting prospects in baseball". Not "right now". Typical Ross Atkins speak.

Actually, he already is. Its just that prospect lists tend to lag behind on these things.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/7/29/8934275/toronto-blue-jays-new-york-mets-simeon-woods-richardson-anthony-kay-marcus-stroman-trade-deadlne

OK I agree and I've read about him already and I have hope, but when someone says "one of the most exciting", in baseball, my understanding is that there are 30 teams and a lot of teams have "exciting prospects" that when you add them all up could be in the 60-80 range. When one says "one of the best" i'm thinking top10. And I view Bo Bichette as top10 and "one of the best propsects". Is Simeon Woods Richardson? Maybe to the Jays, but all of baseball? Ok..lets settle down. Anthony Kay had a dominating stretch in AA ball this year and then look at him now in AAA - so we'll see. Anthony Alford was "exciting" 2 years ago and look at him now. I have hope for SWR, but lets not put that much pressure on the young kid, its going take while..he's 18.