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Schad wrote:Still needs to lose the extreme neckbeard though. The combination of the weight and the beard always made me worry that Vlad was going to start expressing strong views about World of Warcraft Classic.

He arrived in Toronto with more hype than any prospect in franchise history, but Vladimir Guerrero’s first two seasons were underwhelming. His weight loss made headlines, but is there anything in his swing that needs to be changed? Steve Phillips says yes, and explains why the time is right to do it now.

We tend to focus so much on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s offence because he can be a force with a bat in his hands.

For the longest time, the only attention that has been paid to his defence is identifying his inadequacies initially as a third baseman, then again when he made the move to first base last season. But he deserves to have his hard work acknowledged. He is a much better first baseman this season and it is due to his desire to be a better third baseman.

Much has been made of Guerrero’s weight loss and conditioning. He is in much better shape this year and the results are showing. He had hoped to be able to play third base again, and the Jays did a good job by leaving open that possibility of that happening to reward his motivation to get in shape. But there wasn’t any configuration of the roster that realistically had him as the everyday third baseman.

The great news is that Guerrero’s improvement offensively and defensively has reinforced the benefit of his better physical condition. The positive results offensively are clear, as he is among the leaders in a number of statistical categories.

Defensively, he is making plays that he couldn’t even imagine a year ago. Playing defence is as much about footwork as it is soft hands to catch the ball. His footwork is dramatically improved.

Another reason for his improved defensive performance is experience. Guerrero wasn’t properly prepared last season to play first base, but his poor physical condition upon reporting for Summer Camp left the Jays no other choice. He has had to experience every play at least once to learn what the angles and footwork are like on the right side of the infield. Now he knows what to expect and what to do when it happens.

It is hard to imagine that he would have doubts about his abilities but it is natural for even the best players to wonder whether they’ll ever figure things out. Guerrero’s self-confidence is back. He has the same posture and confident look that he showed in the minor leagues. He moves freely without hesitancy this season in a way that we didn’t see for a couple of years.

It is hard to know cause and effect when a player’s confidence wanes. Did his struggles on offence affect his defence or was it the other way around? Did he just have doubts about all that he had to overcome? Did the way he feels about his new physique bring back his swagger, or was it the success that he had because of his new body?

The mental part of the game is impossible to quantify, but it is at times more important than the physical skills of a player. How a player feels about himself and how he sees himself affect how he plays. The best players have a confidence in themselves that borders on cockiness. They don’t let mistakes or failures change the way they feel about their abilities.

Schad wrote:Which is a roundabout way of saying that Vlad has the second-best OPS+ in baseball, behind Mike Trout.

vaff87 wrote:What’s with Juan Soto’s numbers? His statcast numbers are off the charts, but they’re just not matching his actual numbers. What’s going on there? I’m a bit befuddled as to how he has a higher xBA and xwOBA than Vladdy, tho. Only thing I can think of is that Vladdy has a high whiff percentage. But that’s more a product of him swinging out of his shoes in hitters counts. I don’t know for certain, but I doubt his whiff percentage is nearly as high with two strikes.

Schad wrote:

vaff87 wrote:What’s with Juan Soto’s numbers? His statcast numbers are off the charts, but they’re just not matching his actual numbers. What’s going on there? I’m a bit befuddled as to how he has a higher xBA and xwOBA than Vladdy, tho. Only thing I can think of is that Vladdy has a high whiff percentage. But that’s more a product of him swinging out of his shoes in hitters counts. I don’t know for certain, but I doubt his whiff percentage is nearly as high with two strikes.

Soto's getting unlucky, but he's also hitting the ball on the ground an awful lot. One of the lowest launch angles and highest GB% in baseball. Basically, 2019 Vlad and 2019 Soto appear to be involved in some sort of Freaky Friday ****.

vaff87 wrote:His launch angle is down even more this year, but last year, Soto had a launch angle lower than Vlad’s, and still managed to hit like he was Lou Gehrig. In fact, Lou Gehrig only had one season where he posted a wRC+ higher than the 201 Soto posted last year. Although, I’m pretty certain if it was a full season, that number would have been lower. Easier to maintain that level for the 47 games he played last year, than a normal 150+. Still super impressive, though.

Schad wrote:

vaff87 wrote:His launch angle is down even more this year, but last year, Soto had a launch angle lower than Vlad’s, and still managed to hit like he was Lou Gehrig. In fact, Lou Gehrig only had one season where he posted a wRC+ higher than the 201 Soto posted last year. Although, I’m pretty certain if it was a full season, that number would have been lower. Easier to maintain that level for the 47 games he played last year, than a normal 150+. Still super impressive, though.

36.1% HR/FB last year, so when he hit the ball in the air, it went three miles. His xwOBA is higher because the hard-hit flyballs aren't leaving the park right now, but his FB% is also incredibly low, which is going to suppress his chances to hit for power.

s e n s i wrote:on pace for a 9 fWAR season which hasn't been done by a blue jay since