2025 Around MLB Playoffs Discussion

[HangTime]

If the Jays win the Division, they don't have to leave home until game 3 of the Division series (Oct 7), just think of the buzz in the city, and players would get to feed off that.

[SharoneWright]

we have managed to lose a whole 0.5 game in the month of September. And had decent records at the same time.

All true, but we have also slipped 3 games in the last 5.

I remain justifiably trepidatious.

[Randle McMurphy]

we have managed to lose a whole 0.5 game in the month of September. And had decent records at the same time.

All true, but we have also slipped 3 games in the last 5.

I remain justifiably trepidatious.

They don’t call it a collapse for no reason.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees move to 1 back with their latest win over the trash Sox. The Jays have gone 1-5 over the past week to blow a 5 game lead.

The collapse is nearly complete.

[Randle McMurphy]

The Yankees have now made up 5 games on the Jays in 8 days. Historic level chokejob for this franchise.

The collapse is finally complete.

[Randle McMurphy]

Fangraphs updated odds give us a 92.1% chance of winning the division.

5-1 on our 6-game homestand while outscoring opponents 34-13 and the next two series come against teams with a combined 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. It's pretty much all but guaranteed at this point that we'll win the division – and likely finish with the best record in the AL – especially considering how we have generally been playing for the past 4 months. Wild to me that some people are so paranoid of the miniscule chance of us losing the division lead that they can't let the majority of fans enjoy the moment.

“All but guaranteed”

“Minuscule chance”

And then baseball happened.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees sweep the trash Sox to maintain the collapse.

Jays did clinch the #4 spot in the WC spot tonight though, which assures them games at home next week.

[JN]

Current Vegas implied odds of winning AL East:

Toronto 66-70%
New York 30-33%

I think the 66-70% is high, but the odds are not minimal either. I think somewhere around 40-50% is reasonable. Its not a near certainty to win one more game than somebody else in a sample of 2, no matter how better the team appears.

[bluerap23]

That does seem high but it should be over 50% because we are leading in the standings.

[JN]

That does seem high but it should be over 50% because we are leading in the standings.

It does, but I played with some numbers and came up with the following:

a) Say Toronto has a 40% chance of winning each game
b) Say New York has an 80% chance of winning each game.

In this scenario Toronto would win the AL East 50% of the time.

[PushDaRock]

That does seem high but it should be over 50% because we are leading in the standings.

It does, but I played with some numbers and came up with the following:

a) Say Toronto has a 40% chance of winning each game
b) Say New York has an 80% chance of winning each game.

In this scenario Toronto would win the AL East 50% of the time.

Yes, having the tie breaker drastically shifts the advantage to the Jays.

The Yankees also don't have a 80% chance of winning each game, it's probably closer to 65% maybe, which means they win both games a little over 40% of the time. That would make the highest likely outcome is for us to only need to win 1 of the 2 games to take the division which we should be able to do a large percentage of the time.

[Randle McMurphy]

That does seem high but it should be over 50% because we are leading in the standings.

It does, but I played with some numbers and came up with the following:

a) Say Toronto has a 40% chance of winning each game
b) Say New York has an 80% chance of winning each game.

In this scenario Toronto would win the AL East 50% of the time.

Yes, having the tie breaker drastically shifts the advantage to the Jays.

The Yankees also don't have a 80% chance of winning each game, it's probably closer to 65% maybe, which means they win both games a little over 40% of the time. That would make the highest likely outcome is for us to only need to win 1 of the 2 games to take the division which we should be able to do a large percentage of the time.

More like 95% right now for NYY in today’s game

[JN]

Jays now around -400 from what I see. Implied odds around 80% on betting markets.

I’m confident .. not 80% confident though.

[Randle McMurphy]

We should be rooting hard for Cleveland tonight btw

If they win the next two and Detroit wins tomorrow (with Skubal), we’d face Detroit without Skubal in the WC series rather than Crochet/Boston if we lose to the Rays tomorrow

[GoRapstheoriginal]

Ok so some dumb questions:

Is the Wildcard a one off play off game?

Is the ALDS best of 5 or best of 7?

[LLJ]

Ok so some dumb questions:

Is the Wildcard a one off play off game?

Is the ALDS best of 5 or best of 7?

Wildcard is best 2 out of 3. You probably remember those Wildcard games we lost in the recent past. Or maybe you don't, I don't blame you for not wanting to remember.

ALDS is best of 5

[bluerap23]

It's been a great season. That we are in this position with 1 game to go is completely surprising. At the beginning of the year I started a poll to predict where we would finish in the AL east. Most people had us at 4, myself included. Really hoping we can win the division tomorrow but, even if we don't, it has been a very successful year.

[GoRapstheoriginal]

Ok so some dumb questions:

Is the Wildcard a one off play off game?

Is the ALDS best of 5 or best of 7?

Wildcard is best 2 out of 3. You probably remember those Wildcard games we lost in the recent past. Or maybe you don't, I don't blame you for not wanting to remember.

ALDS is best of 5

Thank you! Your a scholar & a gentleman!

[Parataxis]

It's been a great season. That we are in this position with 1 game to go is completely surprising. At the beginning of the year I started a poll to predict where we would finish in the AL east. Most people had us at 4, myself included. Really hoping we can win the division tomorrow but, even if we don't, it has been a very successful year.

I had the jays life-or-death to make the wildcard this season. I figured we'd be playing meaningful games in September, but I thought they'd be meaningful to scrape our way into the post-season, not meaningful in a 'force your closest opponent to win out the season or you win the division' sort of way.

I would absolutely have taken this result if you offered it in April.

[Randle McMurphy]

Cleveland wins on the walkoff HBP.

Detroit remains a possible opponent for us on Tuesday now. Unfortunately though Detroit has conceded the division and are not starting Skubal tomorrow.

So we will either get Crochet or Skubal on Tuesday if we lose.