General Blue Jays Thread

[Schad]

It's also extremely unlikely that we shell out that much money in free agency in any instance. All of these "...and then the Jays just decide to be one of the highest-spending teams in baseball" plans fall apart given that we're simply not going to do that. So it would be Springer versus LaMahieu/Tanaka, as an example, not Springer plus LaMahieu/Tanaka. We have money to spend, but we aren't going to throw out a $175m+ payroll in a season where most of Rogers' revenue streams from the team are going to be badly affected.

[TR50]

I definitely agree with everything you are saying Schad. But wouldn't Springer's availability be somewhat similar to that of Ryu? I mean if he could possibly be had on a 4/100 type deal, wouldn't that be really good value?

[billy_hoyle]

I had a really long version only to accidentally close the tab and fail to realize it, so here's the more concise version (it's still several hundred words. I am not actually a concise writer):

I've posted many, many times on what I believe the team ought to do in order to have an extended run, and the heart of the matter is that they need to avoid overcommitting financially, or they will not be able to afford to keep the talent they have in a few years time. We don't have the luxury of eating tens of millions in dead salary, as the Dodgers do, and consequently we need to pay as much mind to how our actions will affect that 2026 Jays as the 2021 Jays.

What does that mean in practical terms? Holding on to prospects where possible, because they will provide a second wave of cheap talent and allow us to remain competitive. Chasing free agents on shorter terms, because as the Dodgers have demonstrated it can be really useful to actually have the ability to trade those players away to make room for emergent talent; a megadeal leaves you pretty well locked in, because most of the value will come in the first few years and you'll then be left holding the bag for the final several seasons. Make upside plays in free agency/trade with players who, for one reason or another have enough risk attached that they don't command full freight. Ryu was a good example of the latter: he has consistently been among the best starters in baseball, but was available at a reasonable price because he carried a fair bit of health risk. But even at a four-year term that exceeded what other teams were willing to do, that risk was manageable: he wasn't likely to be a boat anchor unless his arm fell off, and his contract syncs relatively well with the point at which we'll start needing to pay bigger bucks to the first wave of kids. If he fell apart, that might jeopardize our window for a spell, but would not be an issue when the kids are all in the midst of their prime years.

So, who fits that model?

LaMahieu, for one: he isn't going to get a megacontract because he's a bit older, but his game should age fairly well. Teams are also worried that the oppo homers aren't going to be as much of a feature away from Yankees Stadium, but he has also proven to be quite a capable player without hitting 30 a year. His downside risk is a moderately-above-average 2B for something like $17-20m/4; his upside is that he keeps being one of the best players in baseball for a fraction of what you normally pay for such (he has outperformed Lindor the past two years). And because his baseline is fairly good, if in two years we have a good 2B option coming through the system (or we opt to move Bichette there because someone else is arriving on the scene at SS and we want to reallocate resources) his contract would almost certainly be movable.

Tanaka, for another: he's a consistent mid-rotation starter available at a reasonable price/length, and if we find ourselves with an overabundance of good starting options in a couple years, or the need to pay someone else, it wouldn't be difficult to find a taker for 1 year/$13-14m.

Or JBJ: CF is a significant need for us right now, but if all goes to plan it won't be in a couple seasons when Austin Martin is ready (I'm still assuming we ultimately use him in CF). JBJ isn't someone you'd want long-term because he'll be useless when his defense eventually falls off, but on a two-year deal in the $8-10m AAV range he's the perfect bridge.


All three of those players are additions that would substantially improve our team in 2021 without triggering the sort of payroll bomb in a few years that cratered the Red Sox. They wouldn't cost any great pile of assets (we'd have to surrender our 2nd rounder and $500k in international bonus pool for LaMahieu, but that's not the end of the world), and all of their deals stand a good chance to be movable if we feel the need to pivot. As great as Lindor is, giving up a bunch of stuff in order to allocate 15-20% of our payroll through the heat death of the universe to him represents an enormous risk, particularly when so much of his value is tied up in his defensive ability at SS (something that doesn't always age terribly well).

Also, regarding prospect blocking: there's no such thing until a player is too good for AAA. You're talking about guys in A ball as being blocked, but most of the players you list as blocked at shortstop won't even be shortstops by the time they reach the majors.

Hilariously, I also had an enormous post I accidentally deleted.

I agree with almost everything in your post. I think going after the 3 players you suggested is likely to be the more prudent decision. I'd love it if that were to occur.

That said, there's the possibility that Lindor and Bauer actually want to be here, and the others - DJLM, JBJ & MT -might not want to sign here at an acceptable term.

They fit now, they are objectively better, and I think there's a very real possibility that our core won't deserve the raise that some are projecting in a couple years. Bird in hand and all that.

[vaff87]

There’s a part of me that feels Shatkins have been planning on going after Lindor for years, kind of like Masai and Giannis. Obviously they drafted him with Cleveland, they’ve always been planning on spending around this time, and hiring a Puerto Rican manager doesn’t hurt their chances. Those things might just be coincidental, but there is a part of me that thinks this has been their plan for some time.

I guess what I’m saying is, if they were going to go out and acquire a superstar and sign them to a mega-deal, I think it would be him.

[SharoneWright]

I remember a good 10 year period of no General Blue Jays Thread. I forget who suggested it, but this thread is where the action is!

[billy_hoyle]

There’s a part of me that feels Shatkins have been planning on going after Lindor for years, kind of like Masai and Giannis. Obviously they drafted him with Cleveland, they’ve always been planning on spending around this time, and hiring a Puerto Rican manager doesn’t hurt their chances. Those things might just be coincidental, but there is a part of me that thinks this has been their plan for some time.

I guess what I’m saying is, if they were going to go out and acquire a superstar and sign them to a mega-deal, I think it would be him.

This is my gut feel too, and part of the reason I'm trying to rationalize the move.

[polo007]

Olney -- Fixing Gary Sanchez one of New York Yankees' top offseason priorities - ESPN.com

• On the Baseball Tonight podcast the other day, Paul Hembekides picked out a pitcher and a position player from the growing list of free agents whom he considers to be undervalued, and in that conversation, he focused on Jake Odorizzi, the 30-year-old right-hander who has been with the Minnesota Twins the past three seasons. Trevor Bauer is going to get the most significant deal among pitchers, at a level above that of Odorizzi, but two pitchers similar in age and experience are already off the board -- Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman accepted qualifying offers from the Giants and Mets, respectively.

In 2020, Odorizzi started just four games, spending a lot of time on the injured list, first with a sore back, then returning after being hit in the chest in August. But Hembo referred to Odorizzi as a "sleeping giant" among the free agents, because of his pitch profile -- a good fastball, a cutter, a slider, a splitter -- and compared his 2019 season to that of Zack Wheeler, who signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies last winter. A lot of the velocity-range metrics tied to Odorizzi's pitches compare pretty closely to those of Shane Bieber, so it really isn't a surprise that the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays, as well as the Twins, have expressed early-market interest in Odorizzi.

[polo007]

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[BramptonYute]

A lindor trade and extension only makes sense if you think you can win a championship during his prime, which is like the next 5 years.

Id trade for him, but probably wouldnt give up much.

[vaff87]

Two ways to potentially mitigate the long-term salary concerns:

1. Front load the contract, so that we’re paying him more money for his more productive years. And when it comes to the back half of the contract, we’re not stuck with an anchor bringing us down.
2. If the contract is more evenly balanced, give him a player option after five years. Then he can potentially become a FA again and get another big pay day, and we wouldn’t be on the hook.

[Michael Bradley]

I definitely agree with everything you are saying Schad. But wouldn't Springer's availability be somewhat similar to that of Ryu? I mean if he could possibly be had on a 4/100 type deal, wouldn't that be really good value?

I think Springer will end up with five years, but I would agree that he and LeMathieu are the two position players the Jays should target. Between the two I'd probably lean towards LeMathieu, not because of price/years, but selfishly because his offensive profile is so unique in today's game (I'm starting to tire of the excessive Three True Outcomes in the sport), and I also think he's more likely to age gracefully. Then again, Springer doesn't K much either for a slugger, and he plays a position that just happens to be arguably the biggest organizational weakness (CF), so you really can't go wrong with either one.

The pitching market outside of Bauer is a little more scary to me, so hopefully there are some trades that could be pulled off there.

[Schad]

The question, with Springer, is how long he will remain a viable center fielder. His bat is obviously good enough to play in RF, but he's a fringe-average CF defender who already gives way whenever the Astros are able to field a better CF option, and at 31 it probably isn't that long before he's a nearly-full-time corner OF.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

Mitchell: Blue Jays 'shooting for the sky' with Bauer, potential target Paxton has upside - TSN.ca

Trevor Bauer is the best free agent arm available and will be the all-in target for the Blue Jays as they aim to bolster their starting rotation, but what are the realistic chances he decides to sign with Toronto? TSN Blue Jays reporter Scott Mitchell shares his thoughts and reveals who he believes is the best target for the team.

[TR50]

The question, with Springer, is how long he will remain a viable center fielder. His bat is obviously good enough to play in RF, but he's a fringe-average CF defender who already gives way whenever the Astros are able to field a better CF option, and at 31 it probably isn't that long before he's a nearly-full-time corner OF.

Given that he has a well above average bat, would it be terrible to be paying him say 25mil a year to be in RF? I still feel like he would be a solid investment in the Ryu kind of ilk. And that even with him, we could still be in play for Tanaka, or Paxton.

[Schad]

Given that he has a well above average bat, would it be terrible to be paying him say 25mil a year to be in RF? I still feel like he would be a solid investment in the Ryu kind of ilk. And that even with him, we could still be in play for Tanaka, or Paxton.

It wouldn't, at least not initially. But if he does get five years, as projected, you are looking at a $25m+ 35/36 year old with minimal defensive value, which isn't always a great bet.

[TR50]

Given that he has a well above average bat, would it be terrible to be paying him say 25mil a year to be in RF? I still feel like he would be a solid investment in the Ryu kind of ilk. And that even with him, we could still be in play for Tanaka, or Paxton.

It wouldn't, at least not initially. But if he does get five years, as projected, you are looking at a $25m+ 35/36 year old with minimal defensive value, which isn't always a great bet.

That is fair.

I just figured he would be a good add given he is a really good hitter, playing a premium position (for now) that doesn't require a mega deal.

That being said DJ is also an incredibly attractive option!

[polo007]

Why the Blue Jays might target Jackie Bradley Jr. over George Springer in centre field | The Star

It won’t be a huge surprise to Blue Jays fans to hear the club is looking for an upgrade in centre field.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman told the Big Time Baseball podcast that the Jays had made contact with George Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr., two of the top centre-fielders on the free-agent market, and have more names on their list.

Pitching, predominately of the starting variety, has been their biggest need for the last few seasons. Adding depth to the bullpen has become more pressing of late, as has acquiring a third baseman or middle infielder. But the rumblings about centre field have long been an undercurrent.

Springer, 31, stands out in a shallow market, consistently rated one of the best position players in the game. A career .270 hitter with an .852 OPS for the Houston Astros, he could easily slot into the middle of the Jays’ order while offering average to above-average coverage in the field.

The price would be high. MLB Trade Rumours projects Springer will land a five-year deal worth $125 million (U.S.) based on past performance.

The Jays paid top dollar to add veteran starter Hyun-Jin Ryu as a free agent last off-season — four years, $80 million — to fill a big hole in the rotation. The situation in centre field isn’t as dire, though, with Randal Grichuk as a stopgap on a large contract, which could discourage the Jays from investing a large chunk of their budget in that area.

That might make Bradley the better option, even if he isn’t the better all-around player.

Atkins has made improved defence a priority, and there is arguably no better defensive centre-fielder than Bradley — who ranked in the 99th percentile for outs above average this past season, according to Statcast. He is also elite on the basepaths, another area where the Jays have struggled.

Despite a career-high .283 average and .364 on-base percentage in the shortened 2020 season, Bradley’s overall production is below average. As a result, he’d come much cheaper — in the ballpark of two years and $16 million, according to MLB Trade Rumours estimates. That would leave room for the Jays to afford an impact bat or starting pitcher.

[Schad]

That is fair.

I just figured he would be a good add given he is a really good hitter, playing a premium position (for now) that doesn't require a mega deal.

That being said DJ is also an incredibly attractive option!

Yeah, the problem is just that "good hitter who can play tolerable CF but really ought to be a corner OF" is the one thing we're fairly set with. Springer is obviously the best hitter (and defender) of the bunch, but JBJ/LaMahieu with the same money shores us up on both sides of the ball, which is really useful if we're planning to run out adventurous bat-first corner OFs.

[The_Hater]

Given that he has a well above average bat, would it be terrible to be paying him say 25mil a year to be in RF? I still feel like he would be a solid investment in the Ryu kind of ilk. And that even with him, we could still be in play for Tanaka, or Paxton.

It wouldn't, at least not initially. But if he does get five years, as projected, you are looking at a $25m+ 35/36 year old with minimal defensive value, which isn't always a great bet.

That is fair.

I just figured he would be a good add given he is a really good hitter, playing a premium position (for now) that doesn't require a mega deal.

That being said DJ is also an incredibly attractive option!

That 5th year would be huge, and highly likely the equivalent to burning the $25m+ in a bonfire. I’m on board with 4 years.