General Blue Jays Thread: 2024 Off-Season

Can somebody explain this to me? Doesn't recalling Lopez and then putting him on the 60 day make his service time clock tick? Where's the advantage to the Jays? I *think* that that takes him off the 40-man, but couldn't they do that from AAA if he was injured?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Post #350 » by **Schad** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 11:15 pm

Parataxis wrote:Can somebody explain this to me? Doesn't recalling Lopez and then putting him on the 60 day make his service time clock tick? Where's the advantage to the Jays? I *think* that that takes him off the 40-man, but couldn't they do that from AAA if he was injured?

Read on Twitter
?s=20

You're correct on Lopez's service time, but it's largely immaterial...he isn't a major prospect. The odds of him even being in the org when he reaches arb are pretty low at this point. And it's nice for Lopez, who will now collect a major league salary for that period.

You're correct also on the advantage: it frees up a 40-man spot. But he'd need to be in the majors to do so, because otherwise you open the door to a lot of roster/service time manipulation.

whysoserious · Post #351 » by **whysoserious** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 12:07 pm

Okay, I'm not a super active member of this board but def a supporter of all Toronto teams. Watch a ton of Jays all year but more casually then in to all the analytics. I'd love some perspective on the Shatkins era from the more invested and analytical guys around here.

I find myself extremely frustrated with this FO. I think they've made great pitching signings and Rogers has opened up the purse strings, we have the 8th highest payroll in the league and yet we can't win in our division at all ( this year especially) and so we're kind of stuck.

The Rays just consistently develop and continue to be good when they really should be a terrible team with no fan support and won't spend hte money. The O's just redeveloped their entire farm system and it's completely paying off. They're basically covered at every position in the lineup and their bullpen is nasty and they still have prospects coming or for trades. The Yankees and Red Sox are older or not as good but they'll just spend their way to being good.

So the question is what are the Jays going to do to actually contend in this division? We have some good pieces but Shatkins were supposed to keep the farm system churning and all they've done is trade away guys and not replace them and we're seeing a complete stagnation of anything of value coming from the minors. Our bullpen hasn't been good enough for years and yet I don't see any change there. And last off-season they changed the lineup/position players for that defense but it's cost us so much offensively too.

I'm just looking at the O's, and I'm like we're not winning a division title now for anotehr 10 years without some major strides/changes.

Parataxis · Post #352 » by **Parataxis** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 1:08 pm

Schad wrote:
Parataxis wrote:Can somebody explain this to me? Doesn't recalling Lopez and then putting him on the 60 day make his service time clock tick? Where's the advantage to the Jays? I *think* that that takes him off the 40-man, but couldn't they do that from AAA if he was injured?

Read on Twitter
?s=20

You're correct on Lopez's service time, but it's largely immaterial...he isn't a major prospect. The odds of him even being in the org when he reaches arb are pretty low at this point. And it's nice for Lopez, who will now collect a major league salary for that period.

You're correct also on the advantage: it frees up a 40-man spot. But he'd need to be in the majors to do so, because otherwise you open the door to a lot of roster/service time manipulation.

Thanks for that - appreciate the insight!

What happens if somebody in the MiLB gets injured? I assume that the various MiLB levels have roster limits as well, or is it pretty much a free-for-all, and if you're injured you stay on the roster but just don't play?

Post #353 » by **Schad** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 10:37 pm

whysoserious wrote:The Rays just consistently develop and continue to be good when they really should be a terrible team with no fan support and won't spend hte money. The O's just redeveloped their entire farm system and it's completely paying off. They're basically covered at every position in the lineup and their bullpen is nasty and they still have prospects coming or for trades. The Yankees and Red Sox are older or not as good but they'll just spend their way to being good.

So the question is what are the Jays going to do to actually contend in this division? We have some good pieces but Shatkins were supposed to keep the farm system churning and all they've done is trade away guys and not replace them and we're seeing a complete stagnation of anything of value coming from the minors. Our bullpen hasn't been good enough for years and yet I don't see any change there. And last off-season they changed the lineup/position players for that defense but it's cost us so much offensively too.

I'm just looking at the O's, and I'm like we're not winning a division title now for anotehr 10 years without some major strides/changes.

You kinda answered your own question here. The reason the Rays are consistently good is that they don't overcommit: even when competing, they rarely make big, glitzy acquisitions, and regularly trade star players for cheap, cost-controlled ones, for the simple reason that they cannot afford to keep them. The oddity in the finances of modern baseball is that being forced to be cheap also means that you're forced to be fairly young, and young players are in the aggregate better. It would be very difficult to do that here (or in most orgs) because the fans would be furious, but the Rays have the advantage of having no fans to infuriate.

We on the other hand have traded a lot of prospects, and it's extremely difficult to replace prospects at the rate that you trade them if you're competitive on an annual basis. The only team that regularly accomplishes that is the Dodgers, and beyond having by far the best (and most expensive from what I understand) scouting and development team in baseball, they also aren't afraid to trade players for prospects or to let veterans walk to recoup draft picks.

I'm pretty dubious that the Orioles are going to dominate for a decade, though. They have some good young hitters under long-term control, and more on the way, but they will need to find a pitching staff...their rotation (and minor league pitching depth) aren't great. And while they can rely on their bullpen this year, they are extremely volatile year-to-year, so it's difficult to say with any confidence that their 'pen will remain a strength in the future.

Post #354 » by **Schad** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 10:39 pm

Parataxis wrote:Thanks for that - appreciate the insight!

What happens if somebody in the MiLB gets injured? I assume that the various MiLB levels have roster limits as well, or is it pretty much a free-for-all, and if you're injured you stay on the roster but just don't play?

Minor leagues have a limit on the active roster size, but that doesn't include players on the injured list...isn't a limit there as far as I'm aware (but MiLB has changed a bunch of rules in recent years, mostly for cost-cutting, so I'm not 100%).

polo007 · Post #355 » by **polo007** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 11:04 pm

Read on Twitter

bluerap23 · Post #356 » by **bluerap23** » Wed Aug 2, 2023 11:13 pm

Schad wrote:
whysoserious wrote:The Rays just consistently develop and continue to be good when they really should be a terrible team with no fan support and won't spend hte money. The O's just redeveloped their entire farm system and it's completely paying off. They're basically covered at every position in the lineup and their bullpen is nasty and they still have prospects coming or for trades. The Yankees and Red Sox are older or not as good but they'll just spend their way to being good.

So the question is what are the Jays going to do to actually contend in this division? We have some good pieces but Shatkins were supposed to keep the farm system churning and all they've done is trade away guys and not replace them and we're seeing a complete stagnation of anything of value coming from the minors. Our bullpen hasn't been good enough for years and yet I don't see any change there. And last off-season they changed the lineup/position players for that defense but it's cost us so much offensively too.

I'm just looking at the O's, and I'm like we're not winning a division title now for anotehr 10 years without some major strides/changes.

You kinda answered your own question here. The reason the Rays are consistently good is that they don't overcommit: even when competing, they rarely make big, glitzy acquisitions, and regularly trade star players for cheap, cost-controlled ones, for the simple reason that they cannot afford to keep them. The oddity in the finances of modern baseball is that being forced to be cheap also means that you're forced to be fairly young, and young players are in the aggregate better. It would be very difficult to do that here (or in most orgs) because the fans would be furious, but the Rays have the advantage of having no fans to infuriate.

We on the other hand have traded a lot of prospects, and it's extremely difficult to replace prospects at the rate that you trade them if you're competitive on an annual basis. The only team that regularly accomplishes that is the Dodgers, and beyond having by far the best (and most expensive from what I understand) scouting and development team in baseball, they also aren't afraid to trade players for prospects or to let veterans walk to recoup draft picks.

I'm pretty dubious that the Orioles are going to dominate for a decade, though. They have some good young hitters under long-term control, and more on the way, but they will need to find a pitching staff...their rotation (and minor league pitching depth) aren't great. And while they can rely on their bullpen this year, they are extremely volatile year-to-year, so it's difficult to say with any confidence that their 'pen will remain a strength in the future.

Tampa is also far more successful on the player development side.

Post #357 » by **Schad** » Thu Aug 3, 2023 12:02 am

bluerap23 wrote:Tampa is also far more successful on the player development side.

But not really in the traditional way. They have some homegrown players of real note obviously (Franco, the Lowes, McClanahan) but their real skill is identifying undervalued talent in other organizations, and acquiring them in trades for veteran players. Method of acquisition for all of their position players with more than 100 PAs this year:

Trade: Bethancourt, Diaz, Paredes, Arozarena, Siri, Ramirez, Raley, Margot, Meija.
FA: none.
Draft: Lowe, Lowe, and Walls (which sounds like a law firm).
IFA: Franco.

Pitchers with more than 40 IP or 20 appearances:

Trade: Glasnow, Poche, Fairbanks, Beeks, Rasmussen, Stephenson.
FA: Eflin, Adam, Diekman (mid-season FA), Kelly (waivers).
Draft: McClanahan, Bradley.
IFA: Chirinos (since waived).

So of their 26 most-used players, it breaks down as:

15 acquired via trade.
4 acquired in free agency (Eflin's the only one they spent actual money on).
5 drafted.
2 international free agents.

That's an incredibly rare distribution; the Jays have more draft/IFA guys that fit the above criteria than the Rays do. But being willing to trade established players for prospects while competing, and having an exceptionally good scouting system means that they pluck a lot of AAA/pre-arb guys from other organizations and turn them into above-average major leaguers.

whysoserious · Post #358 » by **whysoserious** » Thu Aug 3, 2023 12:53 pm

Schad wrote:
You kinda answered your own question here. The reason the Rays are consistently good is that they don't overcommit: even when competing, they rarely make big, glitzy acquisitions, and regularly trade star players for cheap, cost-controlled ones, for the simple reason that they cannot afford to keep them. The oddity in the finances of modern baseball is that being forced to be cheap also means that you're forced to be fairly young, and young players are in the aggregate better. It would be very difficult to do that here (or in most orgs) because the fans would be furious, but the Rays have the advantage of having no fans to infuriate.

We on the other hand have traded a lot of prospects, and it's extremely difficult to replace prospects at the rate that you trade them if you're competitive on an annual basis. The only team that regularly accomplishes that is the Dodgers, and beyond having by far the best (and most expensive from what I understand) scouting and development team in baseball, they also aren't afraid to trade players for prospects or to let veterans walk to recoup draft picks.

I'm pretty dubious that the Orioles are going to dominate for a decade, though. They have some good young hitters under long-term control, and more on the way, but they will need to find a pitching staff...their rotation (and minor league pitching depth) aren't great. And while they can rely on their bullpen this year, they are extremely volatile year-to-year, so it's difficult to say with any confidence that their 'pen will remain a strength in the future.

Weren't Shatkins supposed to be responsible for building the farm system and player development? I mean I know we've made some trades recently and probably overpaid at times, but shouldn't there be more depth coming and shouldn't we be seeing more development of players at the lower levels. The Jays haven't promoted too many guys to our own club from the minors for a few years now.

Post #359 » by **Schad** » Thu Aug 3, 2023 7:22 pm

whysoserious wrote:
Weren't Shatkins supposed to be responsible for building the farm system and player development? I mean I know we've made some trades recently and probably overpaid at times, but shouldn't there be more depth coming and shouldn't we be seeing more development of players at the lower levels. The Jays haven't promoted too many guys to our own club from the minors for a few years now.

And they did build the farm system. The first generation of players from that form a large part of our core. The second generation got traded in win-now moves. It is very difficult to maintain farm depth when you are trading away several of your best prospects annually.

whysoserious · Post #360 » by **whysoserious** » Thu Aug 3, 2023 8:12 pm

Schad wrote:
And they did build the farm system. The first generation of players from that form a large part of our core. The second generation got traded in win-now moves. It is very difficult to maintain farm depth when you are trading away several of your best prospects annually.

I know Manoah was there but weren't Vladdy and Bo pre-Shatkins? Who else has been promoted or is it simply we had all this depth and traded it all away for Chapman, Berrios, Whitt, and...?