2019-20 Offseason Thread

[Schad]

Castellanos, Wheeler, Moustakas and Odorizzi are underwhelming targets?

And "spend smartly with the big boys" is a bit of an oxymoron. The big boys who are smart aren't spending like crazy in free agency anymore. By total dollar figure, the 12 largest free agent contracts handed out in the past four offseasons were inked by, in descending order, the Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, D-Backs, Cubs, Orioles, Padres again, Nationals, Tigers, Giants, Cubs and Mets.

15 players have signed $100m+ deals over those four years...Patrick Corbin's the only one of the 15 to reach the playoffs this year with the team that signed him to the contract.

[billy_hoyle]

Castellanos, Wheeler, Moustakas and Odorizzi are underwhelming targets?

And "spend smartly with the big boys" is a bit of an oxymoron. The big boys who are smart aren't spending like crazy in free agency anymore. By total dollar figure, the 12 largest free agent contracts handed out in the past four offseasons were inked by, in descending order, the Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, D-Backs, Cubs, Orioles, Padres again, Nationals, Tigers, Giants, Cubs and Mets.

15 players have signed $100m+ deals over those four years...Patrick Corbin's the only one of the 15 to reach the playoffs this year with the team that signed him to the contract.

This example seems obviously biased and cherry picked to me.

Boston won the world series last year, and the Nats won this year. That's two teams on your list. The Nats in particular won on the backs of 25-30 mil/yr ace FA signing (Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin), does it matter that one of those signings occurred over 4 years ago? Shouldn't Scherzer be looked at as a reason in favor of signing a Cole or a Strasburg or a Paxton/Bauer (as not all FA pitching contracts end up as dumpster fires).

The Yankees and Astros have traded for giant contracts (Stanton, Verlander, Grienke) and two guys that will sign giant contracts very soon (Cole and Paxton).

We don't have that level of talent on our pitching staff. FA is a way of getting it.

[Schad]

This example seems obviously biased and cherry picked to me.

Boston won the world series last year, and the Nats won this year. That's two teams on your list. The Nats in particular won on the backs of 25-30 mil/yr ace FA signing (Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin), does it matter that one of those signings occurred over 4 years ago? Shouldn't Scherzer be looked at as a reason in favor of signing a Cole or a Strasburg or a Paxton/Bauer (as not all FA pitching contracts end up as dumpster fires).

The Yankees and Astros have traded for giant contracts (Stanton, Verlander, Grienke) and two guys that will sign giant contracts very soon (Cole and Paxton).

We don't have that level of talent on our pitching staff. FA is a way of getting it.

It's no more cherry-picked than taking the players who have held up, because a great many haven't. Pitchers have a kinder aging curve than hitters these days, but you have to be mindful of survivorship bias when talking about the Scherzers and Verlanders, because there are an awful lot of others from a similar age bracket -- Price, Lester, Hamels, Cueto, Felix, Wainwright, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Shields, the list goes on and on -- who didn't age half as gracefully.

Thus why the Astros have preferred trading for older guys who were on the back ends of their contracts...there's less risk in 2.5 seasons of old Greinke than 8 years of a younger FA. At worst you're holding the bag for a year or two, not the better part of a decade.

[phillipmike]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-10-key-questions-with-nationals-stars-gerrit-cole-scott-boras-set-for-big-offseasons/

9. Are there any sleeper teams?

Of course. The Chicago White Sox figure to do something as they try to shift from rebuilder to contender; the Texas Rangers have a new ballpark to open and a rotation to upgrade; and the Cincinnati Reds are presumably looking at wholesale changes if they don't reach the postseason (or come close to it), which may influence their decision-making process this winter. The Toronto Blue Jays should also drop some coin, but it's anyone's guess as to how much.

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[dagger]

Didi Gregorious was not tendered, not that we're looking for an SS. JD Martinez did not opt out. Josh Donaldson was tendered.

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[Skin Blues]

Will Smith got a qualifying offer?! Damn. Makes me a little more excited about the return we'll get for Giles. The free agent reliever market is really thin.

[Ado05]

Mookie Betts to Toronto 2021!

[BigLeagueChew]

top 50 FA

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

odorizzi is returning to minny

Predicts us signing Roarke.

[Schad]

Will Smith got a qualifying offer?! Damn. Makes me a little more excited about the return we'll get for Giles. The free agent reliever market is really thin.

That actually feels like a relatively clever use of the QO. He's going to get overpaid next year if he accepts it (and he really should), but I'd rather pay Will Smith $18m for one year, or pay Will Smith $12m for 2/3rds of a year and then trade him, than pay him the 3/$42m he was projected to receive, because reliever.

[Schad]

top 50 FA

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

odorizzi is returning to minny

Predicts us signing Roarke.

Guessing we won't sign a Roark sort now, because Anderson's basically that...affordable and durable 4th-ish starter with some warts.

[BigLeagueChew]

Guessing we won't sign a Roark sort now, because Anderson's basically that...affordable and durable 4th-ish starter with some warts.

Castellanos and Wheeler in the top 10.

If Thames will cost less than 7.5M i'd be semi-interested could be 1b/4th outfielder/dh ? (1-2 year deal)

[polo007]

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[Black Watch]

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I don't know who said we might trade for him, but it would never happen.

Of course most of the offseason is a bunch of dumb rumours to get the normies all hype, but this one makes no sense and only serves to make the average fan dumber for having read it. Stoeten is great guy in person, totally different from his writing persona, so no knock there, but you can tell he reads every comments section to every Jays article online by the way he writes so condescendingly.

[Skin Blues]

Will Smith got a qualifying offer?! Damn. Makes me a little more excited about the return we'll get for Giles. The free agent reliever market is really thin.

That actually feels like a relatively clever use of the QO. He's going to get overpaid next year if he accepts it (and he really should), but I'd rather pay Will Smith $18m for one year, or pay Will Smith $12m for 2/3rds of a year and then trade him, than pay him the 3/$42m he was projected to receive, because reliever.

Who knows... if he declines the QO, the Rockies might offer him $60M!

[polo007]

Blue Jays off-season primer: Anderson deal should just be the beginning - Sportsnet.ca

Biggest needs

The Blue Jays need pitching, and lots of it. They’re expected to devote most of their resources to the rotation after a season in which their starters combined for a 5.25 ERA. The front office will check on every free agent starter, so don’t be surprised when they’re linked to all kinds of names this winter.

While the team values draft picks highly, there are surely prices at which qualifying offer recipients Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler make sense in Toronto. But if the bidding for those pitchers escalates beyond the team’s comfort zone, the likes of Jordan Lyles, Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello would just cost money.

Eventually, there will be chances to add to the bullpen and there’s also room for improvement on the offensive side, too. As a group, Blue Jays hitters posted a .305 on-base percentage in 2019, fourth-worst in baseball.

Worst-case scenario

The Blue Jays off-season would be a failure if they don’t add meaningfully to their starting rotation. After years of bargain hunting, it’s time to look beyond the likes of Jaime Garcia and Clayton Richard and spend more aggressively. But as much as the Blue Jays need pitching, it’d be a mistake to spend too much prospect capital on short-term fixes.

Best-case scenario

Ideally, the Blue Jays would add two more big-league calibre starting pitchers, relief help, a controllable centre fielder who offers plus defence and an impact bat capable of playing multiple positions.

And best-case scenario, they’d add those pieces while holding onto their most promising young players. With payroll flexibility on their side, the Blue Jays are better off spending money than prospects.

[phillipmike]

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End of the Pompey era.

[phillipmike]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-top-10-offseason-trade-candidates-including-francisco-lindor-and-two-former-mvps/

10. Ken Giles Toronto Blue Jays RP
Giles enjoyed a nice comeback season in his age-28 campaign. He registered a sub-2.00 ERA, struck out 83 batters in 53 innings, and again did a solid job of keeping the ball in the park. Across parts of six big-league seasons, Giles owns an ERA+ of 152. He's in his walk year and will earn an arbitration raise over his $6.3 million salary for 2019. While there's some volatility to him and he's lost a tick of velocity over the last couple of years, there's no arguing with his 2019 season or his overall body of work. The Jays will likely be motivated sellers.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-one-under-the-radar-free-agent-for-each-team-to-target-this-offseason/

Blue Jays
You can always count on a Mark Shapiro-led team to go dumpster diving for relievers. Anthony Swarzak hasn't pitched too well over the past two seasons. Yet his main issue has been the long ball. The Blue Jays might subscribe to the idea that the ball will be altered again, or that Swarzak's home-run rate is due for regression. Either way, he'd come cheap.

[polo007]

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