RealGM

SharoneWright wrote:I'd look into Trevor Bauer. He's 100% innocent. Would Rogers risk it for the principle of it or for winning games?? No.

Toronto Blue Jays

Eliminated by: Minnesota Twins in AL wild-card round

Key free agents: 3B Matt Chapman, CF Kevin Kiermaier, DH Brandon Belt, LHP Hyun-jin Ryu, LF/2B Whit Merrifield ($18 million mutual option)

Biggest offseason priority: After finishing eighth in the AL in runs, the Blue Jays will not only have to figure out how to score more runs in 2024 but also reconfigure their entire lineup with several key position-player free agents. Chapman didn't do much damage after hitting .384 in April (he hit .202 or worse in four of the next five months), Merrifield's option is too high to pick up, and if the Jays let Kiermaier walk, they can slide Daulton Varsho to center on a full-time basis. Toronto scored 100 fewer runs than it did in 2021, and getting that year's version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back will help -- but that's hardly the only solution.

Under-the-radar priority to watch: How will the Blue Jays pour money back into the roster? Chapman, Ryu, Belt and Kiermaier made a combined $50.8 million in 2023. Some of that will go to in-house raises (Bo Bichette's salary will go up nearly $8 million), and there is still some flexibility to add some firepower, either in free agency (which is somewhat limited) or in trade. Indeed, they might have to consider trading from their rotation depth for position player help. But after running a payroll $50 million-$60 million higher than 2022 and not getting any better results for it, maybe ownership balks at matching 2023's club-record payroll.

Can the Blue Jays count on Alek Manoah for 2024? The rotation was excellent even as the 2022 All-Star and 2023 Opening Day starter cratered to a 5.87 ERA, but the Jays probably shouldn't count on getting 31-plus starts again from Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. If Manoah can re-find himself and if prospect Ricky Tiedemann is ready, the Jays can once again have one of the best rotations in the majors.

Offseason prediction: I think they'll try to re-sign Belt -- he had a productive year at DH -- but Chapman's fade probably means they let him walk, even though there isn't a clear solution in free agency. The most intriguing scenario would be to trade a starting pitcher, but that would put a lot of faith in Manoah that he probably won't be able to earn until the Jays see him in spring training.

s e n s i wrote:acknowledging the idiocy of this clown is a step in the right direction

Read on Twitter

Michael Bradley wrote:Guillermo was there in 2021 and 2022 when the Jays had a top 5 offense and weren’t hitting everything the other way. I suspect someone they brought in specifically in 2023 was the culprit. Possibly someone who should get rid of their sideburns.

Mr Swagtastic wrote:What is the percentage that Toronto is in the mix for Yamamoto? I seen a few articles that say Toronto is on the short list but have Boston, Yankees and The Dodgers as the betting favorites

To start with the obvious, the Blue Jays are likely to make Chapman a one-year qualifying offer valued at approximately $20.325 million by Monday’s deadline. He’ll then have a week to accept or decline, but in a weak market for position players it’ll likely be an easy decision to decline.

Even if Chapman were to accept, that’d be good value for a four-time Gold Glove winner with a lifetime OPS+ of 117 who’s entering his age-31 season. But he’s far more likely to decline, setting the Blue Jays up for draft-pick compensation in 2024.

As for the Blue Jays’ other free agents, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Hicks and Hyun Jin Ryu aren’t considered candidates for the QO and the accompanying salary. But after MLB’s quiet period ends Monday, all are free to sign with any team.

Having already declined Merrifield’s 2024 option, the Blue Jays exercised their two-year conditional club option on reliever Chad Green.

It's a strong indication that they believe strongly in Green, who returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.25 ERA with 16 strikeouts compared to four walks in 12 innings this past summer.

But the average annual values on the options available to the Blue Jays are rather high, and the Blue Jays likely need three to five position players this winter, as well as pitching depth. Exercising the club options would suggest that Toronto is able to spend relatively freely this winter.

Green has proven year after year that he’s a valuable big league reliever. With a lifetime ERA of 3.23 and strikeout rate of 32.4 per cent, he would have been in demand if he hit free agency.

Starting Monday, those off-season decisions begin in earnest.