2019-20 Offseason Thread

Lukeem · Post #401 » by **Lukeem** » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:12 pm

Who is the most veteran hitters in our lineup ?

Grichuk who is extremely inconsistent has most experience I believe... he is constantly struggling to figure things out himself

After that it’s the likes Hernandez, Shaw... I really think signing castellanos could do wonders for the youth developing and keeping our offence with some elite potential

youreachiteach · Post #402 » by **youreachiteach** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 1:45 am

I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

SharoneWright · Post #403 » by **SharoneWright** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 1:51 am

youreachiteach wrote:I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

I'm so very glad The Stro Show isn't our problem anymore.

Post #404 » by **Schad** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 3:27 am

youreachiteach wrote:I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

Stroman likely would have cost more in this market, and Ryu has been the better pitcher.

I_Like_Dirt · Post #405 » by **I_Like_Dirt** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 2:06 pm

youreachiteach wrote:Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

Nope.

The Jays got the better pitcher, some quality pitching prospects and Stroman is likely going to be more expensive than Ryu starting in 2021.

Lukeem · Post #406 » by **Lukeem** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 4:07 pm

Sign nick castellanos for 4 years 60 mill or a bit more of needed

Trade grichuk to braves for Inciarte braves can move acuna to centre with Markakis and grichuk completing their of

Jays go with castellanos Inciarte and Lourdes

Inciarte and Jansen/ McGuire would be our 8/9 hitters and great defensive players at essential defensive positions

Shaw/ tellez/ other fight it out for 1b and hopefully one of them can put it together if Shaw cannot Return to form or tellez doesn’t take another step this is our only weak spot From position players

This puts us in a position over next four years to have a contender level offense and defense - if a couple of our top prospects pan out... it also gives us a lineup with depth making it harder to pitch around bo and vlad

Bo
Biggio
Vlad
Castellanos
Lourdes
Hernandez
Shaw
Inciarte
McGuire

With the likes of Connie Groshans Moreno hiraldo maritinez and many others coming up, they either develop to the point we think they can supplant any of mlbers (trading current player) or we can trade them for proven commodities in a position of need... or if some of our better pitching prospects pan out we can either be patient with prospects or over the years if we are not seeing potential to replace current players trade them for younger prospects.

* I put Hernandez in there as 4th outfielder /Dh I don’t think he has much of a lead over fisher, drury, mcinney. But this signing and trade would allow us to just streamline and go with whomever looks like the best of the bunch

My gut tells me it would be Hernandez stays around as 4th outfielder/ dh (if Shaw and tellez are hitting well they will get dh abs as well)
Drury probably stays around as utility... bye bye to Derek and billy

The_Hater · Post #407 » by **The_Hater** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 5:43 pm

youreachiteach wrote:I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

Just looking at Stroman’s career or even his last 3-4 seasons, what evidence are you reading that Stroman will be a better pitcher than Ryu going forward?

And even if you want to argue that Stroman is going to be as good or marginally better, which there isn’t any solid evidence of, wouldn’t this exchange be worth two top 100 prospects? That’s good asset management right?

VanWest82 · Post #408 » by **VanWest82** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 6:18 pm

The_Hater wrote:
youreachiteach wrote:I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

Just looking at Stroman’s career or even his last 3-4 seasons, what evidence are you reading that Stroman will be a better pitcher than Ryu going forward?

And even if you want to argue that Stroman is going to be as good or marginally better, which there isn’t any solid evidence of, wouldn’t this exchange be worth two top 100 prospects? That’s good asset management right?

I think the evidence is in Ryu's age and injury history. Surely Stroman would provide more future value if Ryu falls off or gets hurt. Ryu + prospects definitely has the higher ceiling though, and given our lack of interesting up and coming pitching talent at the time of the trade I can understand why Jays felt the need to make that deal. It would have looked awful without the Ryu signing IMO, but with him on board I think it was a good bet.

polo007 · Post #409 » by **polo007** » Thu Jan 2, 2020 6:19 pm

Read on Twitter

polo007 · Post #410 » by **polo007** » Fri Jan 3, 2020 5:20 am

Read on Twitter

I_Like_Dirt · Post #411 » by **I_Like_Dirt** » Fri Jan 3, 2020 1:57 pm

VanWest82 wrote:I think the evidence is in Ryu's age and injury history. Surely Stroman would provide more future value if Ryu falls off or gets hurt. Ryu + prospects definitely has the higher ceiling though, and given our lack of interesting up and coming pitching talent at the time of the trade I can understand why Jays felt the need to make that deal. It would have looked awful without the Ryu signing IMO, but with him on board I think it was a good bet.

The thing is, Ryu is only 4 years older than Stroman and it isn't exactly like Stroman has been some sort of ironman for his career to date. Injuries are definitely a risk for both pitchers here so I don't necessarily see the value in using them as some sort of analytical factor. Factoring out injuries, depending on when Ryu eventually falls off, if Stroman is still pitching at a high level and neither of Kay nor SWR has risen to his level by that point, there may be a brief window in there somewhere where the Jays are slightly worse for the trade but it sure doesn't strike me as likely that it's a particularly long window, if there's a window at allo.

The Jays are better off in the immediate and better off in the long-term future, insofar as can be predicted. It's really that medium term future in maybe years 3 and 4 of Ryu's deal that I suppose may be up in the air a bit but Stroman wasn't necessarily so much better than Kay after they were traded that there are a few ways that things may not go the Mets' way on that one and there are enough of those possibilities here that I don't see it as particularly likely that this works against the Jays at any point. Honestly, the risk would have been in keeping Stroman, hoping he'd stay healthy, and then walking into free agency with him after how he handled the arbitration process.

agkagk · Post #412 » by **agkagk** » Fri Jan 3, 2020 9:37 pm

Lukeem wrote:Sign nick castellanos for 4 years 60 mill or a bit more of needed

Trade grichuk to braves for Inciarte braves can move acuna to centre with Markakis and grichuk completing their of

Jays go with castellanos Inciarte and Lourdes

Inciarte and Jansen/ McGuire would be our 8/9 hitters and great defensive players at essential defensive positions

Shaw/ tellez/ other fight it out for 1b and hopefully one of them can put it together if Shaw cannot Return to form or tellez doesn’t take another step this is our only weak spot From position players

This puts us in a position over next four years to have a contender level offense and defense - if a couple of our top prospects pan out... it also gives us a lineup with depth making it harder to pitch around bo and vlad

Bo
Biggio
Vlad
Castellanos
Lourdes
Hernandez
Shaw
Inciarte
McGuire

With the likes of Connie Groshans Moreno hiraldo maritinez and many others coming up, they either develop to the point we think they can supplant any of mlbers (trading current player) or we can trade them for proven commodities in a position of need... or if some of our better pitching prospects pan out we can either be patient with prospects or over the years if we are not seeing potential to replace current players trade them for younger prospects.

* I put Hernandez in there as 4th outfielder /Dh I don’t think he has much of a lead over fisher, drury, mcinney. But this signing and trade would allow us to just streamline and go with whomever looks like the best of the bunch

My gut tells me it would be Hernandez stays around as 4th outfielder/ dh (if Shaw and tellez are hitting well they will get dh abs as well)
Drury probably stays around as utility... bye bye to Derek and billy

That’s pretty good, me likey!

A couple solid bullpen additions and that team could flirt with contention next year.

VanWest82 · Post #413 » by **VanWest82** » Fri Jan 3, 2020 10:02 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:I think the evidence is in Ryu's age and injury history. Surely Stroman would provide more future value if Ryu falls off or gets hurt. Ryu + prospects definitely has the higher ceiling though, and given our lack of interesting up and coming pitching talent at the time of the trade I can understand why Jays felt the need to make that deal. It would have looked awful without the Ryu signing IMO, but with him on board I think it was a good bet.

The thing is, Ryu is only 4 years older than Stroman and it isn't exactly like Stroman has been some sort of ironman for his career to date. Injuries are definitely a risk for both pitchers here so I don't necessarily see the value in using them as some sort of analytical factor. Factoring out injuries, depending on when Ryu eventually falls off, if Stroman is still pitching at a high level and neither of Kay nor SWR has risen to his level by that point, there may be a brief window in there somewhere where the Jays are slightly worse for the trade but it sure doesn't strike me as likely that it's a particularly long window, if there's a window at allo.

The Jays are better off in the immediate and better off in the long-term future, insofar as can be predicted. It's really that medium term future in maybe years 3 and 4 of Ryu's deal that I suppose may be up in the air a bit but Stroman wasn't necessarily so much better than Kay after they were traded that there are a few ways that things may not go the Mets' way on that one and there are enough of those possibilities here that I don't see it as particularly likely that this works against the Jays at any point. Honestly, the risk would have been in keeping Stroman, hoping he'd stay healthy, and then walking into free agency with him after how he handled the arbitration process.

Lots of good points in here, especially the bolded sections. When it comes to vet deals I'm admittedly biased by my own athletic experience. I could keep making comebacks all the way to age 32 but after that there was a noticeable decline in athleticism and propensity to get hurt. Everyone's different but you'll never be able to convince me that the risk of injury/decline between ages 33-36 compared to someone 29-32 isn't much greater. If they both maintain current level of performance Ryu > Stro.

The question is what's the expected return from two top 80ish level pitching prospects. I don't quite have the same faith in the Jays scouting / player development as I do Raptors so I'm not going to blanket assume they got the right guys.

Lukeem · Post #414 » by **Lukeem** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 12:01 am

agkagk wrote:
Lukeem wrote:Sign nick castellanos for 4 years 60 mill or a bit more of needed

Trade grichuk to braves for Inciarte braves can move acuna to centre with Markakis and grichuk completing their of

Jays go with castellanos Inciarte and Lourdes

Inciarte and Jansen/ McGuire would be our 8/9 hitters and great defensive players at essential defensive positions

Shaw/ tellez/ other fight it out for 1b and hopefully one of them can put it together if Shaw cannot Return to form or tellez doesn’t take another step this is our only weak spot From position players

This puts us in a position over next four years to have a contender level offense and defense - if a couple of our top prospects pan out... it also gives us a lineup with depth making it harder to pitch around bo and vlad

Bo
Biggio
Vlad
Castellanos
Lourdes
Hernandez
Shaw
Inciarte
McGuire

With the likes of Connie Groshans Moreno hiraldo maritinez and many others coming up, they either develop to the point we think they can supplant any of mlbers (trading current player) or we can trade them for proven commodities in a position of need... or if some of our better pitching prospects pan out we can either be patient with prospects or over the years if we are not seeing potential to replace current players trade them for younger prospects.

* I put Hernandez in there as 4th outfielder /Dh I don’t think he has much of a lead over fisher, drury, mcinney. But this signing and trade would allow us to just streamline and go with whomever looks like the best of the bunch

My gut tells me it would be Hernandez stays around as 4th outfielder/ dh (if Shaw and tellez are hitting well they will get dh abs as well)
Drury probably stays around as utility... bye bye to Derek and billy

That’s pretty good, me likey!

A couple solid bullpen additions and that team could flirt with contention next year.

I think the bullpen will be fine. With the amount of arms they have in the farm and how many strong bullpen arms move near the deadline each year that one bay in the middle of the lineup like castelllanos to tie everything together is a essential through imo

phillipmike · Post #415 » by **phillipmike** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 7:00 am

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-next-10-world-series-winners

2024: Blue Jays over Dodgers
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be 25 years old in October 2024, right in his prime, and all his fellow “Juniors” -- Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio -- will be ready to take over the AL East. (Until the Yankees reload again.) The Dodgers are as likely as any team in the NL, and maybe in baseball, to be competitive every year of this decade. As a frame of reference, by the way: 2024 is the first season the Tigers won’t be paying Miguel Cabrera.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/predicting-the-2020s-team-of-the-decade.html?__twitter_impression=true

In the same vein as MLB.com's all-2010s teams, who makes your projected all-decade squads for the 2020s?

Here are my all-2020s teams, including six current prospects:

First Team
C: Adley Rutschman, Orioles
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
2B: Gavin Lux, Dodgers
3B: Alex Bregman, Astros
SS: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
OF: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
OF: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
DH: Juan Soto, Nationals
Two-way: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
SP: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
SP: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
SP: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
SP: MacKenzie Gore, Padres
SP: Mike Soroka, Braves
RP: Josh Hader, Brewers

Second Team
C: Joey Bart, Giants
1B: Pete Alonso, Mets
2B: Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
3B: Rafael Devers, Red Sox
SS: Francisco Lindor, Indians
OF: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
OF: Eloy Jiménez, White Sox
OF: Christian Yelich, Brewers
DH: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Two-way: Brendan McKay, Rays
SP: Shane Bieber, Indians
SP: Luis Castillo, Reds
SP: Lucas Giolito, White Sox
SP: Casey Mize, Tigers
SP: Blake Snell, Rays
RP: Raisel Iglesias, Reds

JN · Post #416 » by JN » Sun Jan 5, 2020 7:49 pm

youreachiteach wrote:I wonder about Ryu vs. Stroman. I understand that the two prospects are promising, and hopefully they turn out...but a few lottery tickets and an 80 million dollar expenditure for a fairly risky soft tossing lefty has a good chance to fail (ie...the expensive mystery box).

Wouldn't the money have been better spent on Stroman himself?

Any guarantee that Stroman would have resigned here?
There was likely some flight risk, he is the type of personality that asks for overpayment. Just made it easier to move him.

phillipmike · Post #417 » by **phillipmike** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 9:35 pm

According to Stroman, the Jays didn’t enter in contract negotiations.

According to the Jays, they did. I believe the Jays because I have a hard time believe a team would trade a top 30 pitcher in the league that lines up with their contention window without knowing what he wants long term. Would be dumb to trade a guy if he were willing to take a pay cut without knowing. I strongly speculate that the Jays got his asking price and thought it was too much and decided to move him.

Denisaur9 · Post #418 » by **Denisaur9** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 9:41 pm

Not only that but Shapiro and Atkins are very analytical. Stroman is a contact pitcher and in a home dominant league they may have decided to sell on him and they got 2 very good pitching prospects and signed one of the most dominant when healthy pitchers in the game who doesn't rely on velocity. Love the move in retrospect. I also think a major part was to do with clubhouse. Stroman was outspoken and I could only imagine him being influential with their young guys potentially in a negative way. They have officially passed to torch to Bichette and Vladdy. Soon to be Pearson with Ryu as the perfect compliment to a young core like he was with the Dodgers.

phillipmike wrote:According to Stroman, the Jays didn’t enter in contract negotiations.

According to the Jays, they did. I believe the Jays because I have a hard time believe a team would trade a top 30 pitcher in the league that lines up with their contention window without knowing what he wants long term. Would be dumb to trade a guy if he were willing to take a pay cut without knowing. I strongly speculate that the Jays got his asking price and thought it was too much and decided to move him.

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using RealGM mobile app

SharoneWright · Post #419 » by **SharoneWright** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 10:01 pm

Top 30??? I'm rather skeptical...

Anyway, to borrow a term some people were gagging on at the time to the trade,,, the years of control (x2) really pushes this trade over the edge. And the clubhouse. And the risk of Stroman leaving in free agency. And the window for winning. And SWR's talent upside. And that heart doesn't measure FIP.

phillipmike · Post #420 » by **phillipmike** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 10:24 pm

SharoneWright wrote:Top 30??? I'm rather skeptical...

Anyway, to borrow a term some people were gagging on at the time to the trade,,, the years of control (x2) really pushes this trade over the edge. And the clubhouse. And the risk of Stroman leaving in free agency. And the window for winning. And SWR's talent upside. And that heart doesn't measure FIP.

Was 23rd in fWAR last season among qualified starters.

Was 27th in fWAR over the last 3 years among qualified starters.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

29th in fWAR since coming to the majors;

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2014-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

fWAR isn’t the be all end all but with that info and the fact I can’t name 30 MLB starters that I would want over him next season in terms of talent (not including personality), I think it’s safe to say he is a top 30 starter or at worst very close to it.

I’m not a fan of his ego but he is a very good pitcher and was a great one for us. One of the best in team history.

That being said the trade made complete sense. I wasn’t a fan of the return when it first happened but Kay and SWR have upside and we added some much needed pitching depth in Ryu, Roark, Anderson and Yamaguchi. Great asset management.