2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[polo007]

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[phillipmike]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-top-100-prospects/

7) Nate Pearson | RHP
ETA: 2020
Final 2019 Ranking: 7
Tools: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55
2019 Average Fastball Velo: 97

Skinny: Pearson’s workload was managed by alternating five- and two-inning starts before July 24, when the restrictions were lifted and he started going deeper into games. He tossed at least five frames in each start after that date to close out the season. Armed with a fastball that touches triple digits, Pearson works with a plus slider and a changeup that has trended positively and projects as plus as well. Pearson has the body and stuff to sit at the front of Toronto’s rotation in the near future.

29) Jordan Groshans | SS
ETA: 2022
Final 2019 Ranking: 37
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60
2019 Average Exit Velo: 89

Skinny: A foot injury ended Groshans’ season after 23 games last year, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of spring training. A gifted hitter with growing power, expect Groshans to rise quickly if he stays healthy.

61) Simeon Woods Richardson | RHP
ETA: 2022
Final 2019 Ranking: Unranked
Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70
2019 Average Fastball Velo: 93

Skinny: One of the prizes received by Toronto in the Marcus Stroman trade, Woods Richardson mixes an intriguing arsenal of four average or better pitches with impeccable control. He’ll pitch all of 2020 as a 19-year-old and could find himself on the verge of making the big leagues by season’s end.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/notable-mlb-prospects-who-missed-the-2020-top-100/

JUST MISSED

Alejandro Kirk (the only Blue Jay among 5 prospects that just barely missed)
Alek Manoah
Orelvis Martinez
Gabriel Moreno
Adam Kloffenstein
Eric Pardinho

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-100-prospects/

At this point last year we had 7;

1. Vladdy
8. Bichette
42. Jansen
70. Pearson
84. Pardinho
89. Groshans
91. K. Smith

Vladdy, Bichette and Jansen graduated. Pearson and Groshans stayed on a rocketed up the board. Pardinho dropped due to injury. Smith dropped due to being horrible. SWR was added.

[polo007]

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[phillipmike]

MLB Network doing their top 100. Here are the Jays related rankings so far;

98. Simeon Woods-Richardson
75. Jordan Groshans
8. Nate Pearson

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So far Mize, Adell, Gore and Rutschman are ahead of Pearson.

Top 3 is;

1. Wander Franco
2. Gavin Lux
3. Luis Robert


All players taken ahead of Manoah (1-10) were ranked on this list. Corbin Carroll, Bryson Stotts and Brett Baty (3 of the 5 players taken after Manoah) were also on this list.

Manoah was the best pitcher in the draft according to some lists, he had a good start in Vancouver, list is selling him short.

Full list; http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020/?list=prospects

[phillipmike]

Johnathan Mayo just said he would take Franco over Vladdy “without blinking”. John Callis agreed and Callis was a guy who drooled on air talking about Vladdy’s potential.

[Schad]

Think that's largely a consensus opinion, and you could probably extend it to any prospect from the last 7-8 years, really. Wander has elite bat control, developing power, and he plays shortstop.

[vaff87]

MLB Network doing their top 100. Here are the Jays related rankings so far;

98. Simeon Woods-Richardson
75. Jordan Groshans
8. Nate Pearson

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So far Mize, Adell, Gore and Rutschman are ahead of Pearson.

Top 3 is;

1. Wander Franco
2. Gavin Lux
3. Luis Robert


All players taken ahead of Manoah (1-10) were ranked on this list. Corbin Carroll, Bryson Stotts and Brett Baty (3 of the 5 players taken after Manoah) were also on this list.

Manoah was the best pitcher in the draft according to some lists, he had a good start in Vancouver, list is selling him short.

Full list; http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020/?list=prospects

I’ve noticed that about Manoah. Even after he got drafted last year, all of a sudden he got ranked lower than guys behind him (in the draft and draft rankings) on the MLB Pipeline mid season list.

[phillipmike]

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https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2020/01/26/no-ones-complaining-about-the-blue-jays-end-of-the-marcus-stroman-trade-any-more.html

The perceived lack of return put Atkins under the spotlight. Many people believed the Jays should have secured a better package or made a more concerted effort to sign Stroman long term. Add in another maligned trade with Houston for right-hander Aaron Sanchez and the criticism surrounding the front office by mid-summer was almost deafening.

Throughout the complaints, Atkins and his staff maintained the Jays did get a top-100 prospect and that many others within the industry agreed. They pointed to Woods Richardson being the youngest pitcher in the Florida State League, with advanced skills that exceeded his peers. No, he wasn’t close to ready, but he possessed the type of high upside the organization so desperately craved. Toronto insisted he was the kind of guy worth waiting for.

The updated rankings back up what the Jays have been saying for months behind the scenes. Toronto isn’t shopping Woods Richardson, and there’s no reason to expect a deal, but he’s the name teams keep bringing up in talks. He’s in demand and while clubs know Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson are essentially off-limits, they’re in the process of finding out the same about Woods Richardson.

[phillipmike]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/56649/2020-prospects-the-top-101-wander-franco-jo-adell-gavin-lux/

19. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
43. Jordan Groshans, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
83. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

[phillipmike]

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-tools-among-2020-prospects

Best fastball: Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays (80) -- ETA: 2020
Pearson famously hit 104 mph with his fastball during the Arizona Fall League's 2018 Fall Stars Game (and also surrendered a homer to Pete Alonso on a 103-mph heater in the same contest). He usually ranges from 98-101 mph and maintains his velocity as a starter, generating it easily with an athletic delivery that he repeats, allowing him to command his fastball as well.
Also in the running: Hunter Greene, RHP, Reds; Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox; Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Cubs

Best slider: A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics (65) -- ETA: 2020
Slowed by Tommy John surgery in 2018, Puk returned last year with his trademark slider and relied heavily on it after the A's called him up in August for bullpen help. His slider averaged 90 mph in the big leagues and has such vicious lateral break that it eats up left-handers and right-handers alike.
Also in the running: Shane Baz, RHP, White Sox; Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox; Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

[Black Watch]

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[phillipmike]

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/2/2/top-100-prospects-for-2020

17. Nate Pearson
An 80-grade fastball, a slider that flashes double plus at its best, and a curveball that’s working toward plus combined with strong extension come together to form one of the few pitchers with true ace potential. A lack of athleticism that leads to high effort still hasn’t erased a future in a bullpen, but rest assured Toronto will debut him in 2020 in the rotation and do everything possible to ensure he stays there.

46. Jordan Groshans
If not for an injury plagued 2019 the Jays 2018 first rounder may have broken out in a big way last season. Instead he impressed in the Midwest League in a truncated 23 game season that ended in mid-May due to a stress fracture in his navicular bone of his left foot. At the time of the injury, Groshans was displaying improved plate discipline and pitch recognition from his rookie ball debut in 2018. Groshans is strong and athletic, with the ability to add good weight onto a prototype frame, leading many to project Groshans to provide plus in game power at maturation.

73. Simeon Woods Richardson
An extremely prolific strike thrower, especially for his age, Simeon Woods-Richardson skyrocketed up lists for his incredible performance in 2019. With an elite 23.1 K-BB%, he’s one of the most mature 18 year old pitchers I’ve ever seen in my life. With a repertoire of four pitches grading at least average, and a projectable 6-foot-4 frame, Woods-Richardson has all the tools to be a frontline starter, and he will look to build towards that in 2020.

91. Alek Manoah
The big righty was drafted in the 1st Round by the Blue Jays last June after a stellar senior season at WVU that saw him win Big 12 Pitcher of the Year. He saw limited action in the Northwest League due to his workload during the college season but he averaged 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings and walked just five across 17 innings. With a fastball that sits in the mid 90s to compliment a slider and changeup, Manoah has the makeup up of a future frontline starter.

98. Orelvis Martinez
One of the best prospects in the 2018 J2 class, the Blue Jays got aggressive with their $3.5 million man, sending him straight to the Gulf Coast League for his debut. Despite being 17 for the entire season, Martinez more than impressed in his debut, putting up a 150 wRC+. While his average speed will likely force him to 3B long term, Martinez’s plus bat speed and advanced feel for hitting will play there, and he has the potential to skyrocket up this list.

[phillipmike]

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[phillipmike]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

8. Nate Pearson
76. Simeon Woods-Richardson
80. Jordan Groshans
89. Orelvis Martinez

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/

6) Toronto Blue Jays
Notes:

2019 Midseason: 6 | 2019 Preseason: 3 | 2018: 8 | 2017: 20 | 2016: 24 | 2015: 9 | 2014: 15

3 Top 100 prospects: RHP Nate Pearson (7), SS Jordan Groshans (29), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (61)

Skinny: Graduating two top 10 overall prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would usually sink a team in these rankings, but the Blue Jays still have one of the game’s top farm systems. It’s a balanced group with star potential at the top in Nate Pearson and Jordan Groshans and prospect depth throughout each level.

As for other AL East teams:
The Rays rank #1
The Orioles rank #12
The Yankees rank #17
The Red Sox rank #20

[phillipmike]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

22. Nate Pearson
26. Simeon Woods Richardson
47. Jordan Groshans
91. Orevlis Martinez

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/dynasty-top-100/

31. Nate Pearson, RHP, TOR
The biggest obstacle for Pearson is staying healthy, and if he can do that we are looking at the ace of the Blue Jays staff. He rose three levels and threw his first 100+ inning season. He should begin the year in Triple-A and be in the majors by the summer, if everything goes to plan.

53. Jordan Groshans, 3B, TOR
After 23 games, his breakout season was over due to a foot injury. He should return to Low-A ball but don’t be turned off if he struggles. His potential of plus power at 3B is very exciting. You might be able to buy low since he did not play much last season.

70. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, TOR
Not only does Simeon Woods Richardson have an impressive four-pitch mix for a 19-year-old, his ability to consistently throw strikes is amazing for someone this young, and he has not looked overmatched pitching at such a high level for his age. He looks on track to be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter for the Jays.

91. Orelvis Martinez, SS, TOR
The Blue Jays were super aggressive in assigning Martinez to the Gulf Coast League after signing him in 2018, and he answered the call. In his first 40 games, he slashed .275/.352/.549 with a 17.8 K% — impressive for someone so young.

[polo007]

Keith Law’s prospect rankings: Toronto Blue Jays – The Athletic

1. Nate Pearson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 11)

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Pearson bounced back last year from a lost 2018 season where he threw just one inning before the Arizona Fall League. A dominant 2019 campaign saw him strike out 104 batters in 83.2 innings between High A and Double A before a late-August promotion to Triple A that left him on the cusp of the big leagues. Pearson throws hard, sitting 97-100 mph and occasionally bumping 101-102, with a fierce slider that’s usually 86-90 when he starts but up to 92 when he’s pitched in relief. He even has some feel for a changeup that’s especially impressive given how hard he throws, with zero platoon split in 2019. He’s a good athlete and an extremely hard worker who looks and throws like a top-of-the-rotation starter, and the injuries he suffered in 2018 were flukes rather than anything related to his delivery. It’s control over command right now, but there’s no mechanical reason he can’t get to above-average command in time. As long as he keeps ramping up his workload, and maybe throws more quality strikes, he should end up at the top of a rotation in a few years.

2. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 73)

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Groshans was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2018 and got off to a terrific start in 2019 in the full-season Midwest League, hitting .337/.427/.482 in 23 games for Lansing before a left foot injury ended his year. Groshans has a pure hitter’s swing and has shown an elite ability to make adjustments to pitchers so far in his brief pro tenure. He rotates his hips early, and the power he has shown to date comes more from his hand strength than his legs — although that’s as much a timing issue as anything, and if it ever becomes an issue it’s probably fixable. A third baseman in high school and in 2018, Groshans moved to short last year and wasn’t terrible, but third or second remain more likely long-term positions for him. If he improves at short enough to stay there, his average/contact/OBP combination would make him a potential star even without big power. A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.

3. Alek Manoah, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 76)

From Keith Law’s Top 100: The top college pitcher — and the second one selected — in the 2019 draft, Manoah had a dominant spring for West Virginia, punching out 144 batters against 27 walks in 108 innings for the Mountaineers. He’ll sit 94-95 deep into games, touching 98, with a four-pitch mix that includes an above-average changeup at 86-88 with great arm speed. His breaking stuff is less consistent, with the slider more of a chase pitch for righties while the curveball is more effective in or near the zone. He’s very big at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, and he pitches with intent, attacking hitters consistently with his fastball to set up everything else, including, quite often, more fastballs. He pitches from the stretch all the time, which is atypical but not a red flag, and was used a little heavily by West Virginia in the spring. Other than that, he checks all the boxes for a mid-rotation starter.

4. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 89)

From Keith Law’s Top 100: Martinez was just 17 in the GCL but hit seven homers, good for second in the league behind a 21-year-old org player, while also showing the plate discipline of a player a few years older. Signed in 2018 for $3.5 million, Martinez has impact tools across the board, with big-time bat speed and raw power already, as well as a 60 or better arm and great hands in the field. He’s a bit thickly built and is going to be very strong when he fills out, so the odds are he’ll end up at third base rather than at short, with a good shot to be above-average at the hot corner. He’d gotten away from the leg kick he used as an amateur but restored it last summer and went on a tear to finish his first pro season, hitting six of those seven homers in August, showing the ability to hit velocity and pick up breaking stuff as well. He’s still so young that you want to temper your enthusiasm, but he could be the Jays’ best prospect in a year.

5. Anthony Kay, LHP

Kay and No. 6 Simeon Woods Richardson were the return from the Mets for Marcus Stroman, with Kay the more advanced of the two while Woods Richardson has the higher ceiling. Kay should be a fourth starter in fairly short order; he’s consistently 92-94 mph with an above-average curveball and changeup, not having a clear plus pitch but with good feel and control. Triple A baseball didn’t agree with him, but that isn’t a reflection of how he’s pitched everywhere else.

6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

Woods Richardson is a strike-thrower already at age 19, sitting 93 with an average changeup. But he lacks an adequate breaking ball, and his arm is always late relative to his landing leg. He’s a good athlete and still quite young, so it’s easy to see the upside potential. But there’s a lot of reliever risk here too between the breaking-ball issue and the delivery.

7. Eric Pardinho, RHP

A command right-hander, Pardinho will miss the entire 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and may not pitch again until mid-2021. He was up to 96 before his elbow started bothering him last season, with a four-pitch mix, but not necessarily showing a clear out pitch.

8. Gabriel Moreno, C

Moreno, who just turned 20 on Valentine’s Day, is coming off a promising partial season for Low-A Lansing where he hit .280/.337/.485 with surprising power for his build. He’s a very athletic catcher who needs work on receiving and blocking but should get there in time, with an above-average arm and good physical projection remaining.

9. Alejandro Kirk, C

Kirk has tremendous bat-to-ball skills, can receive and frame, and throws well. But he’s very heavy – listed at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds – and has to improve his conditioning so he has the durability required for a catcher. He can really hit, though, and has walked more than he’s struck out at all three of his stops so far in pro ball.

10. Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B

He gets overshadowed in this system by Orelvis, who has more impact at the plate, but Hiraldo has good hand-eye and makes a lot of contact, even with a slight tendency to overswing and collapse his backside. He’s probably not a shortstop in the longer term, with second base likely.

[Al_Oliver]

[quote="polo007"]Keith Law’s prospect rankings: Toronto Blue Jays – The Athletic

Other notables

14. Patrick Murphy, RHP
Murphy has been up to 97 mph with a power breaking ball with good spin, but he’s been hurt more or less constantly since the Jays drafted him in 2014, with only 89 appearances in five-plus seasons. He also ran into trouble with the MLB Umpires’ Association, which ruled the toe-tap part of his delivery illegal and forced him to change it midseason.

19. Anthony Alford, OF
Alford is about to run out of chances with the Jays; he’s already out of options and has yet to produce even in Triple A, despite some of the best physical tools in the system and some history of plate discipline when he first moved to playing baseball full-time.

20. Thomas Hatch, RHP
Hatch was the return for David Phelps in a minor trade last July, and he pitched extremely well for the Jays in six starts after the deal — albeit at Double A, where he’d been pitching for almost two full seasons. Hatch was a sinker/slider guy with the Cubs, working in the low 90s but never generating as many groundballs as expected. The Jays had him use his changeup more, and his groundball rate also spiked. So while it might all be a tiny sample, he’s at least worth keeping an eye on. (The Jays also fired the pitching coach who told Hatch to ramp up the use of his change.)

2020 impact

Pearson is ready whenever the Jays want him to be, and Kay is probably more polished right now without Pearson’s huge upside. Zeuch could help the team in relief.

The fallen

It was a tough year for the Jays’ 2017 draft class outside of Pearson. First-rounder Logan Warmoth hit .235/.324/.333 between High A and Double A at age 23 and is moving off shortstop. Fourth-rounder Kevin Smith, who had a good half-season in Low A to start 2018 at age 22, was exposed in Double A last year, hitting .209/.263/.402 with a 32 percent strikeout rate.

Sleeper

Brown’s speed and defense give him as much upside as anyone in the system after their top 100 guys, and I think he’ll show more discipline at the plate when he’s not pushed to a level above his experience.

[vaff87]

MLB Pipeline released their top 30 list for the Jays today:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/bluejays/

[polo007]

Keith Law’s farm system rankings for all 30 MLB teams – The Athletic

7. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays system remains in the top 10 thanks to a little of everything. Their past two drafts, in particular, look very strong. Their international scouting department has added some of the highest-ceiling prospects they’ve had since before I worked there. They added two more of their top-10 prospects in the Marcus Stroman trade. And they’re developing well, with their top two prospects improving since they entered the Toronto system.

[polo007]

Kiley McDaniel's American League team-by-team top prospect rankings

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Nate Pearson, RHP, 60 FV (No. 6 on the Top 100)

2. Jordan Groshans, 3B, 50 FV (68)

3. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, 50 FV (70)

4. Alek Manoah, RHP, 45+ FV

5. Alejandro Kirk, C, 45+ FV

6. Gabriel Moreno, C, 45 FV

7. Orelvis Martinez, SS, 45 FV

8. Anthony Kay, LHP, 45 FV

9. Miguel Hirado, 3B, 45 FV

10. Thomas Hatch, RHP, 45 FV

2020 impact: Nate Pearson and Anthony Kay

Ranked breakout pick: Orelvis Martinez

Unranked breakout pick: Dasan Brown

Ranked prospects beyond the top 100: Manoah was the Jays' first-round pick (11th overall) in 2019 and should move up reasonably fast due to his mid-90s velocity and 65-grade slider. He commands that slider very well and is a great competitor, so he shouldn't have much trouble in 2020 at Class A as a 22-year-old, but his fastball command and changeup lag a bit at the moment, so there's some relief risk. ... Kirk is an oddity in that almost no one else of note in professional baseball looks like him: He's listed at 5-foot-9, 220 pounds, but he's well over 250. He has great feel for contact at the plate (yes, it's feeling like Willians Astudillo so far) and sneaky power, but there's real concern his passable defense will regress if and when his body or athleticism backs up any more. ... Moreno is a more conventional catcher, though a bit on the small side. He's a solid to average defender who should be able to stick behind the plate despite being new to the position while he's a contact-oriented hitter with marginal in-game power at this point.

Martinez has electricity in his hands, with plus bat speed that will eventually create plus raw power, but he's only played one pro season while his contact ability and eventual position, while both showing positive flashes, are unclear. ... Kay was overworked at UConn and had Tommy John before his pro career started, then was traded to the Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal. He's a hefty lefty with a bag of 50s and 55s for grades that probably fit at the back of a rotation. ... Hiraldo has a unique hand path in his swing, but has good feel and a group of above-average tools (bat control, raw power, arm strength) that might allow his aggressive approach to profile everyday at third base. ... Cubs castoff Hatch has slowly but effectively developed three 55-grade pitches -- a low-90s, high-spin heater, (new) cutter and changeup -- to go with solid command to profile as a back-end type (or versatile reliever), despite being 25 and not having reached Triple-A yet.

Others of note: CF Dasan Brown was one of the youngest players in the 2019 draft, which is a positive indicator of potential; having some contact skills and 80 speed helps, too. RF Griffin Conine is the son of Jeff, and his balanced offensive profile leading into his draft years has shifted to a power-focused approach. He was suspended for a stimulant last year but also hit 22 homers in 80 games. He has 65-grade raw power, good for 25-30 homers if he can get to it in games, but he's old for the level and strikes out a lot.

Currently SS Leonardo Jimenez can hit and play shortstop, but doesn't have much in the way of secondary skills, so he looks like a utility guy. SS Kevin Smith is also a likely utility guy, but with louder tools (above average raw power and speed) to go with fringy contact. C Riley Adams is a big catcher with plus raw power and an above-average arm, but the rest is below average, limiting him to backup duty while C Reese McGuire is an above-average defender with contact skills and no power. SS Rikelvin de Castro was the Jays' top international signing in 2019 and stands out for his above average-to-plus speed, defense and arm strength with some offensive potential.

RHP Kendall Williams is a big (6-foot-6) prep projection case who was picked in the second round in 2019. He was dealing fastballs up to 96 mph and flashed three average-to-above pitches in high school, but with a delivery that needs some work. RHP Adam Kloffenstein is a prep arm who looked ticketed for a velocity spike after the 2018 draft, but it hasn't come yet, so he looks more like a depth starter with solid stuff rather than a fireballer. RHP Eric Pardinho would have been higher on this list a few months back, but he just had Tommy John surgery in February. The hype for the heralded Brazilian righty outstripped his mostly average stuff, but he knows how to pitch. RHP T.J. Zeuch has always been a sinker-reliant pitcher who racks up ground balls but probably can't be any more than a back-end starter, though he has already pitched 22⅔ big league innings.