2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

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3. Toronto Blue Jays

Notes: 2020: 6 | 2019: 3 | 2018: 8 | 2017: 20 | 2016: 24 | 2015: 9 | 2014: 15

Top 100 Prospects (6): RHP Nate Pearson (14), SS Austin Martin (19), SS Jordan Groshans (34), RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (69), C Alejandro Kirk (70), SS Orelvis Martinez (96)

The Skinny: The Blue Jays' system has a mix of impact talent and depth throughout the organization, from players who should be 2021 contributors down to emerging talent at the lower levels. Nate Pearson is a potential frontline starter in the No. 1 spot, but the greatest strength of the system is its hitters, particularly in the infield and behind the plate.

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Blue Jays 2021 prospect rankings: Keith Law on Toronto’s top 20 – The Athletic

1. Nate Pearson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 5)

From the Top 100: Pearson’s debut in the majors was tantalizing, but as with his first full pro season in 2018, it was interrupted by injury, leaving him still eligible for these rankings. Pearson averaged 96.3 mph on his four-seamer, showed a full four-pitch mix, all three of which at least missed bats, although he leaned most on his slider and the pitch wasn’t as consistent as it has been in the past. He’s 6 feet 6 inches and 250 pounds, with a good delivery that he has learned to repeat since the Jays signed him, so in theory he should be durable. Still, he had several fluky injuries in 2018 that limited him to one inning, and a flexor strain sent him to the injured list in late August, after which the Jays used him for just a single relief appearance. If he can stay healthy, there are very few starting pitching prospects who can match his stuff and size, which give him the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.

2. Austin Martin, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 14)

From the Top 100: The best prospect in the 2020 draft class slipped to the Blue Jays, who picked fifth and were probably delighted to have a player with his kind of potential get to their selection. Martin has exceptional hand-eye coordination and plus-plus bat speed, striking out only 36 times with 50 walks in 392 PA over his last year-plus at Vanderbilt. He’s probably best suited to third base, but the Jays intend to try him out at shortstop — which he has the athleticism and foot speed to handle — with third, second or even center field all possibilities. He did have some throwing trouble in the brief college season in 2020, but it’s not supposed to be a long-term issue and the Jays seem comfortable with his throwing post-draft. This bat at a skill position is pretty unusual and gives him some MVP upside, although we should be a little cautious since he has yet to take a pro at-bat.

3. Alek Manoah, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 79)

From the Top 100: Manoah was the top college right-hander in the 2019 draft but the Blue Jays got him with the 11th pick on some concerns about his size and minor health issues before his draft year. It looks like a steal now as Manoah continues to stay healthy and throw hard, while improving his conditioning over the course of 2020 and the last two offseasons. Manoah sits 93-94 and can touch 98, with an above-average slider and above-average changeup as well as a curveball he can land for strikes. He is big, 6-6 and 260 in college, and only pitches from the stretch, but he throws strikes and attacks guys consistently with his fastball, an approach that should continue to serve him well as he moves up the ladder. He does have to keep his body in shape, but if he stays healthy he should be in the Blue Jays’ rotation within the next two seasons, with mid-rotation upside.

4. Alejandro Kirk, C (Top 100 rank: No. 92)

From the Top 100: Kirk got a surprise call-up to the majors and was very impressive for a kid who’d never played above High A, and had just 151 professional games total before he reached the big leagues. His bat-to-ball skill and swing decisions are both excellent, leading to very low strikeout rates, while he’s got explosive acceleration at the plate and showed in the majors he can hit for power the other way and turn on 97 in. He’s a solid catcher who can frame, block and throw well, but he’s on the big side already for a catcher at age 22 and has to maintain his conditioning. He was listed at 5-foot-8 and 265 pounds last year, and while he’s apparently lost weight heading into spring training, that’s going to be an ongoing issue for him so he can stay behind the plate, as there’s no other position for a player with his build. His bat will make him a longtime regular as a catcher, with a chance to be a star if he keeps his body in shape for it.

5. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 98)

From the Top 100: Martinez is still just 19 but finished the summer at the Blue Jays’ alternate site, impressing the team with his production against older pitching. The ball explodes off his bat thanks to his plus bat speed and present power, while he has already shown glimpses of advanced plate discipline. In the field, he’s got a plus arm and great hands, still playing shortstop but with a body that might eventually push him to third base. I noted last winter that he might be the Jays’ best prospect in a year, but with no minor league season to show progress and the addition of the best player in the 2020 draft in Austin Martin, Martinez has to wait a year for any such coronation. He has an enormous ceiling as a strong OBP guy with 25-30 homers and plus defense at third. We just need to see how the bat plays at higher levels.

6. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Just Missed)

From the Just Missed: Last year I wrote this about Groshans: “A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.” Ah, well, it was a good thought, but because of the pandemic Groshans hasn’t taken an at-bat in an actual game since May 2019. Groshans did spend the summer at the Jays’ alternate site, facing a lot of pitchers who had appeared in the big leagues or were close to doing so, which is better than no experience but doesn’t give us much new information, such as whether he’s still rotating his hips early and cutting off some of his potential power. He does have a great swing path and has shown an ability to make some adjustments in the limited experience he has in pro ball. I’d just like to see him produce over a longer period against better pitching now.

7. Gabriel Moreno, C

Moreno spent the summer at the Jays’ alternate site and hit well even though he was just 20 years old and had no experience above low A going into the year, then went back to his native Venezuela and hit .373/.471/.508 in 18 games for Lara, with 11 walks and just six strikeouts. He has an above-average arm and is athletic, needing work on the other defensive aspects of catching, but got some of that experience in 2020 when most prospects got little to none. I’m in.

8. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

Woods Richardson came with Anthony Kay in the Marcus Stroman trade and impressed the Blue Jays in spring training 2.0 and at the alternate site. His stuff has backed up slightly since high school, with a solid-average fastball and above-average changeup, along with very good control. His arm is extremely late relative to when his front leg lands and he hasn’t shown an average breaking ball yet, so he has several obstacles ahead of him to reach his mid-rotation ceiling.

9. Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B

Hiraldo has good hand-eye coordination with high contact rates even though he can collapse his back side by overswinging, which you’d associate with power hitters who strike out all the time. The Jays have worked on getting his swing more consistent and worked on his physique so he might stay at short, although he projects as a more likely second baseman who hits for average and doubles power.

10. CJ Van Eyk, RHP

Van Eyk might have ended up in the first round had there been a full spring in 2020; he looked great in preseason and in his first outing, was up and down for three outings after that, then the world ended before he could prove the early version was real. He was 91-95 mph with a nearly 12/6 curveball that was plus when he was at his best and a hard changeup. I didn’t love the cutoff in his delivery, which limited his ability to go to his glove side, but the Jays can probably get him more online to the plate. He has a good chance to be a No. 4 starter, with a ceiling a tick above that.

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