The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

I_Like_Dirt · Post #661 » by **I_Like_Dirt** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 3:16 pm

Raptors Realtor wrote:Couldn't agree more with this article. Atkins is the eternal optimist that believes any trade he does will benefit the team, even if it looks like an underwhelming return from fans and "other league execs/scouts".

Time will tell, but if none of these prospects turn out to be more then just "organizational depth" instead of impact players on a young team trying to build competitiveness, then his & Shapiro's ineptitude to not only evaluate other team's prospects, but also negotiate trades with upside for our ball club will be glaring in Technicolor.

The Jays do have at least one elite pitching prospect. Nate Pearson is the 14th ranked prospect in the league right now. I'm not sure how much better he actually has to be in order to be considered elite. They also have another 4 pitching prospects that probably fall in the top 150 in the league in Manoah, Kay, Pardinho and Woods-Richardson. You don't have to like all of them but the Jays actually do have some pretty good pitching prospects at this point. They could always use more but this isn't the gaping hole it used to be.

And suggesting that there is a lack of vision for upside - Shapiro and Atkins certainly don't get everything right and I'd love it if they got more right, but they've actually done reasonably well overall. The well was just really, really, really dry. The team was old and the players AA left the team were largely worthless because they were so old or just not good or both. There was a brief window they might have gotten more but Rogers wanted to try to milk attendance in a failed attempt to keep everyone together and try to win one last time, but even then, the limited control and declining talents might not have gotten as much as people think.

By far the best move that Shapiro and Atkins made was having EE go to Cleveland and using the money to leverage Gurriel's agent into him signing with the Jays along with Kendrys Morales. Yeah, Morales' contract was dead money but Gurriel is looking like he was worth it. And the comp pick the Jays got for EE turned into the aforementioned Pearson. For letting EE walk, the Jays essentially got two elite prospects in Gurriel and Pearson. It doesn't matter how well EE played after he left (he hasn't been amazing or anything), he wasn't worth keeping around given what the Jays got back. And nobody ever brings that up. No credit. In fact, they get lambasted for the move because people wanted EE kept and hated Morales. They're focusing on the irrelevant parts of the equation there. Shapiro and Atkins definitely aren't perfect but this hate is totally missing the point.

Wo1verine · Post #662 » by **Wo1verine** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 3:37 pm

That guy makes a good point we pretty much don't have any other assets to acquire SP ( besides Giles) so now one of two things happen we sign more Hudson/ Buchholz types and flip them for players that aren't supposed to be good or we actually spend meaningful money on some pitching ( while taking advantage of Vlad, Biggio and Bo making the league minimum) that will help this young core speed up the rebuild process.

FA Starting Pitchers This Winter:

Spoiler:

VanWest82 · Post #663 » by **VanWest82** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 5:11 pm

Cheering for this team feels a lot like cheering for the BC era Raptors. You have guys with a track record in a previous location making deals that seem obviously bad in the moment for a franchise that has mostly known ineptitude, and has an ownership group that doesn't have the credibility or inclination to make the changes necessary to become great (or even good). We should be thankful Shapiro would even consider working with us, right?

The contrast is black and white in every sense when you compare the Jays organization to that of the Masai led Raptors. Jays wait too long (JD) to trade their star whereas Raptors move early (DD). Jays frequently lose trades both from a talent (Stroman) and asset mgmt (Sanchez+) standpoint whereas Raptors usually win those deals (Vasquez, Gay, Kawhi + DG, MG). It's probably a little too early to comment on Jays developmental system but we know Raptors are top notch. Even the Leafs have proven to be a more competent org in recent years.

In the end, I cheered for Raptors to suck so that BC would be fired. I want baby Jays to be good as much as the next Jays fan but part of me hopes it takes them an extra year or two to put pressure on Rogers to actually do something. Would they do something?

Post #664 » by **Schad** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 5:28 pm

The biggest difference is that BC made a bunch of stupid, short-term moves that compromised our future, and the current Jays leadership has done the opposite. They erred by not rebuilding earlier, but we have a pretty bright future.

Marmoset · Post #665 » by **Marmoset** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 6:02 pm

VanWest82 wrote:Cheering for this team feels a lot like cheering for the BC era Raptors. You have guys with a track record in a previous location making deals that seem obviously bad in the moment for a franchise that has mostly known ineptitude, and has an ownership group that doesn't have the credibility or inclination to make the changes necessary to become great (or even good). We should be thankful Shapiro would even consider working with us, right?

The contrast is black and white in every sense when you compare the Jays organization to that of the Masai led Raptors. Jays wait too long (JD) to trade their star whereas Raptors move early (DD). Jays frequently lose trades both from a talent (Stroman) and asset mgmt (Sanchez+) standpoint whereas Raptors usually win those deals (Vasquez, Gay, Kawhi + DG, MG). It's probably a little too early to comment on Jays developmental system but we know Raptors are top notch. Even the Leafs have proven to be a more competent org in recent years.

In the end, I cheered for Raptors to suck so that BC would be fired. I want baby Jays to be good as much as the next Jays fan but part of me hopes it takes them an extra year or two to put pressure on Rogers to actually do something. Would they do something?

I definitely see some parallels with BC in terms of dealing with the media and fans and how they are perceived. Also, BC had an eye for talent but was never able to build a cohesive team, and made poor decisions in free agency. On one had, the Jays seem to have drafted well under Shapiro/Atkins, but in trades they seem to identify talent as having value which nobody else sees. So far, the fans/consensus have been right on most of those guys (Drury, McKinney, etc.). If at this time next year Fisher is looking like those guys, the amount of heat on them will ratchet up that much more.

As far as Rogers doing something - there is one thing that no owner likes no matter how much money they are making or how hands-on or hands-off they are, and that is being embarrassed. If they believe that Shapiro/Atkins are destroying the image of the team and costing them goodwill with the fans (and by extension, money) then I believe they will be gone. I don't think we are at that point even with the moves this week, but I think that the leash is now going to be much shorter.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #666 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 7:01 pm

Ok, this one made me laugh

Read on Twitter

wamco · Post #667 » by **wamco** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 9:05 pm

Use the abundance of money we had available this year (plus saved money from deadline trades) to frontload some contracts with bo and vlad. Buy out a few fa years now rather than pocket the money.

If we added golschmidt, ozuna/marte, and 35m on starting pitching in free agency,(figure 2-3 sp) how does that team look? I put that around a 130m payroll.

Post #668 » by **Schad** » Thu Aug 1, 2019 9:47 pm

wamco wrote:Use the abundance of money we had available this year (plus saved money from deadline trades) to frontload some contracts with bo and vlad. Buy out a few fa years now rather than pocket the money.

Yeah, this is something I'd really hope we pursue.

If we added golschmidt, ozuna/marte, and 35m on starting pitching in free agency,(figure 2-3 sp) how does that team look? I put that around a 130m payroll.

The key with our free agent dealings is that we need to line up their primes with those of our young players. Next year shouldn't really be the priority, so a guy like Goldschmidt (who is having a bad season, which is scary given that he's approaching the end of his prime) isn't ideal. Same with Marte; good player, but reaching an age where CF defense often tails off, and he's a much reduced player as a corner OF.

That team would be okay, but it wouldn't be good, and it'd have a lot of money committed to guys who'd be getting worse as the rest of the team gets better. Pitching is probably the bigger focus, as despite the inherent fragility of pitchers, they seem to be a better bet to remain good as they age, so long as their arms hold up.

Were I guessing, I'd say that we'd probably make a couple higher-AAV, shorter-term plays on starters, plus pick up a couple higher-end relievers available for three years or less. The Michael PIneda, Chris Archer types who are either bouncebacks or have health concerns, and consequently might be options with some risk mitigation and future trade value.

The other option is to trade for players who are decent, but might have contracts that are moderately indecent but not terribly long...a good way of leveraging our available cash to get talent. Carlos Martinez is the sort I'm thinking of there: St Louis doesn't seem interested in using him as a starter, and he does have some injury concerns, but he's on a reasonable AAV for two more years, and was a pretty consistent 3 WAR starter. The Cards don't seem to want him much, which means that he might be available for not a hell of a lot, as he's currently making way too much money as a reliever given their budgetary constraints.

wamco · Post #669 » by **wamco** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 12:40 am

Ya was thinking hop in some mid range FA in short term deals.

guvernator · Post #670 » by **guvernator** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 1:14 am

Why not go after Cole. Will make for a dynamite tandem once pearson is up in may. His contract will be ending by the time bichette/vlad are up for contracts, so makes perfect sense unless Rogers is back to their penny pinching ways.

wamco · Post #671 » by **wamco** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 1:16 am

Free agent prices seemed too depressed too ignore. Especially for 2 WAR and under players. Goldy is too good not to bounce back. Plus they are trade chips if it doesn’t work. No way u could spend 70m this offseason and build a wild card contender?

Post #672 » by **Schad** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 1:28 am

Even at somewhat depressed prices, $70m gets you perhaps 5 players of some quality (but not top quality). If you do well, it might get you 10 wins. That's not getting us to Wild Card contention.

Goldy isn't too good to bounce back. Big dudes are aging really badly in this batspeed-driven league. Even if he does bounce back, for how long? How much of a bet would one be willing to make on his age 33 and 34 seasons? The league is littered with players who, at age 30, were too talented not to remain good deep into their 30s, most of whom are boat anchors now.

On Cole, he might be a decent bet as far as such things go: isn't terribly old for an FA, doesn't have a tonne of mileage on his arm, velocity has actually increased. But all of those things combine to make him likely to get Paid, and to lure him to a rebuilding team would likely require us to top any offers by a fair bit. There's a price at which it's reasonable, and a price at which you get the sneaking suspicion that you'll deeply regret half the contract, and the odds are pretty good that he'll fall toward the latter.

Tanner · Post #673 » by **Tanner** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 2:19 am

A cheap vet rotation can definitely be put together through free agency and trade without spending a ton or trading prospects away. Being a buyer in today's market is the place to be. Owners know they can make money without being competitive so free agents are getting frozen out and vets with minimal years of control can be had for little in trades. Jays can easily add 2+ War starters on the cheap this winter if they wanted to.

I have been a bit disappointed at times with how they got here, but this is where Shatkins always wanted to get to. They wanted to have a cheap position player core of young talent, no bad contracts (aside from Grichuk who at least is front loaded so he'll be cheap towards the end of his deal) and a top farm system even after players graduated. The fact that they got here despite bad luck in trades (Osuna legal issues, JD injury, etc) and just an overall bad environment to trade vets in general, is pretty impressive in itself. Now they have to start developing talent at a better rate. It's one thing to get giddy for acquiring Fisher because you like him, it's another to turn him into something. The Yankees and Rays can do that with players. The Jays have to prove they can too.

The_Hater · Post #674 » by **The_Hater** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 2:27 am

Schad wrote:The biggest difference is that BC made a bunch of stupid, short-term moves that compromised our future, and the current Jays leadership has done the opposite. They erred by not rebuilding earlier, but we have a pretty bright future.

The vision is good now that they’re finally able to rebuild properly, but you still need the execution part as well. And unfortunately that was a pretty underwhelming series of deadline moves.

Post #675 » by **Schad** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 2:43 am

The_Hater wrote:
Schad wrote:The biggest difference is that BC made a bunch of stupid, short-term moves that compromised our future, and the current Jays leadership has done the opposite. They erred by not rebuilding earlier, but we have a pretty bright future.

The vision is good now that they’re finally able to rebuild properly, but you still need the execution part as well. And unfortunately that was a pretty underwhelming series of deadline moves.

It was underwhelming, but I tend to lump everything that has happened over the past couple years under two primary objectives: acquiring a young base of talent good enough to give us a good chance at competing for an extended period, and avoiding anything that might compromise that future. There have been some real missteps and missed opportunities, but on the whole they've done the former quite well, and the only pitfall with the latter is (possibly) Grichuk, and his contract is pretty movable after next season, so long as he can get back to being at least an average hitter.

If it were flipped, and they did fantastically in trade but were mediocre in the draft/IFA, they'd probably be viewed better...but we'd also probably find ourselves in worse shape.

The_Hater · Post #676 » by **The_Hater** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 2:52 am

Schad wrote:
The_Hater wrote:
Schad wrote:The biggest difference is that BC made a bunch of stupid, short-term moves that compromised our future, and the current Jays leadership has done the opposite. They erred by not rebuilding earlier, but we have a pretty bright future.

The vision is good now that they’re finally able to rebuild properly, but you still need the execution part as well. And unfortunately that was a pretty underwhelming series of deadline moves.

It was underwhelming, but I tend to lump everything that has happened over the past couple years under two primary objectives: acquiring a young base of talent good enough to give us a good chance at competing for an extended period, and avoiding anything that might compromise that future. There have been some real missteps and missed opportunities, but on the whole they've done the former quite well, and the only pitfall with the latter is (possibly) Grichuk, and his contract is pretty movable after next season, so long as he can get back to being at least an average hitter.

If it were flipped, and they did fantastically in trade but were mediocre in the draft/IFA, they'd probably be viewed better...but we'd also probably find ourselves in worse shape.

Is it just me, or even with all these young bats do we still have some serious defensive issues up the middle and at 3B? Far too many young players that might project to 1B/CO/DH. It was another thing that made the Astros trade so odd.

Post #677 » by **Schad** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 3:09 am

The_Hater wrote:Is it just me, or even with all these young bats do we still have some serious defensive issues up the middle and at 3B? Far too many young players that might project to 1B/CO/DH. It was another thing that made the Astros trade so odd.

Vlad has defensive issues, and will probably find himself at 1B. Bo should be able to stick at a middle infield spot, and Biggio's defensive metrics at 2B (in a smallish sample) are below-average but tolerable. Jansen's a top-level catcher already. Groshans projects as a good defensive 3B; he was being used at SS because he actually has the range to handle it adequately (though will likely need to move off the position).

We should be fine enough. Probably not a good defensive infield overall, but infield defense is getting devalued a tad through the combination of shifts and flyball-heavy approaches; a lot of the more numbers-friendly teams are shoehorning good hitters in so long as they are at least tolerable defensively (the 2016 Astros didn't have a single infield regular who graded out at average or better at their position).

The outfield's crowded, but I tend to think of it more like the pitching staff: we aren't expecting all of them are here when we're good, just hoping that perhaps one of them will be. Finding a good defensive CF certainly wouldn't go amiss.

phillipmike · Post #678 » by **phillipmike** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 3:47 am

I haven’t read these post so I might be talking out of turn but I see you guys referencing Goldschmidt.

He signed a 130M extension for 5 years in March.

polo007 · Post #679 » by **polo007** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:00 am

Read on Twitter

Post #680 » by **Schad** » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:00 am

I thought Goldschmidt had re-signed, but Cot's sometimes doesn't work for me from work for some reason. And that's not going to be a pretty contract, heh.