2018-19 Offseason Thread

[Tanner]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-blue-jays-payroll-will-rise-foundation-arrives/

Still don't understand why the can't have a top ten payroll and play the young guys at the same time?

I think Shapiro only wants to spend after the young core looks like it is a piece or two away. I'm not sure I like that idea since acquiring good players earlier (as long as it doesn't involve losing top prospects/picks) could always speed up the process, but he has a specific goal in mind.

In 2019 we are probably going to see a lot of Hernandez, McKinney, Drury, Diaz, and Maile to go along with Vlad (after a couple of weeks), Jansen, and Gurriel. Then in the rotation there will be Borucki for sure, and a host of options in AAA like SRF, Pannone, Paulino, Waguespack, Zeuch, Merryweather, etc, who will probably end up eating up a bunch of innings in the rotation depending on who we acquire this winter and injuries. That's not including the position players in AAA like Bichette, Biggio, Alford, and others. This is going to be a really cheap roster.

Morales, Martin, and Smoak is $40m off the books after 2019. Then $18m of Tulo is all that is left for 2020, along with Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, Grichuk, and Pillar all free agents after 2020. I'm guessing most of those guys will be traded a lot sooner than that.

I expect the money to be spent after 2020, right before the 2021 season (unless Rogers demands it done sooner).

[Skin Blues]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-blue-jays-payroll-will-rise-foundation-arrives/

Still don't understand why the can't have a top ten payroll and play the young guys at the same time?

Because they need to cut spending to offset the losses due to decreased attendance. They can't just spend an extra $30M this year and all of a sudden be a good team; attendance will largely be the same no matter what they spend. The investment doesn't pay off. But when there is a bigger core of talent, the return on that $30M might be so great that they increase it to $40M, or $50M. Some teams are perpetually in that zone where more money won't add more revenue, like Tampa. Which is why they never spend any money. Not, as some assume, because a particular owner is "too cheap" or lacks the money to make the investments. It needs to be a good investment.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

If​ the​ Mets trade right-hander​ Noah Syndergaard,​ it will not​ be for a package​ of high-end​ prospects. Or at​ least, that​​ will not be the end game.

The Mets, intent on improving in both 2019 and beyond, are unwilling to take a step backward next season, according to major-league sources.

So, if they move Syndergaard or any of their other starting pitchers – all of whom are drawing trade interest, sources say – their goal will be to wind up with a better roster short- and long-term.

That could mean acquiring major leaguers as part of the return. It could mean flipping some of the prospects in the deal for another asset. It could mean signing a free-agent starting pitcher to “back-fill” the rotation.

If the Mets move Syndergaard, they definitely would need another starter. For all their talk of building around their rotation, they are quite thin beyond Syndergaard, National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas. No pitcher in their farm system is advanced enough to project even as a No. 5 starter in 2019.

A free-agent starter of quality would command a higher salary than Syndergaard in ‘19, and the Mets’ willingness to sustain a payroll reflective of their market size remains in question. Still, imagine if the Mets addressed some combination of their catching, center-field and bullpen needs in a Syndergaard trade, then signed a free-agent starter such as left-hander J.A. Happ. Their rotation might not be as good. But their overall team might be better, particularly if they made other upgrades.

A trade of deGrom, who almost certainly would yield an even higher return than Syndergaard despite being under only two years of control? Not happening, sources say, unless the Mets determine they cannot sign deGrom to an extension, a process that might take months to resolve.

Chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon told reporters on Friday that any deal for Syndergaard would need to be “pretty lopsided,” a statement that perhaps was code for the Padres and other interested teams: Don’t come at us with mediocre offers. Or perhaps the Mets are not serious about moving Syndergaard; it’s difficult to make trades when your stated goal is to fleece your partner.

[bartron_44]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-blue-jays-payroll-will-rise-foundation-arrives/

Still don't understand why the can't have a top ten payroll and play the young guys at the same time?

Because they need to cut spending to offset the losses due to decreased attendance. They can't just spend an extra $30M this year and all of a sudden be a good team; attendance will largely be the same no matter what they spend. The investment doesn't pay off. But when there is a bigger core of talent, the return on that $30M might be so great that they increase it to $40M, or $50M. Some teams are perpetually in that zone where more money won't add more revenue, like Tampa. Which is why they never spend any money. Not, as some assume, because a particular owner is "too cheap" or lacks the money to make the investments. It needs to be a good investment.

Actually, their attendance took one of the biggest drops in the baseball last year. It won't be the same no matter how much they spend.

I don't like the "take a year off to let the kids play" plan either. You sign/acquire top tier talent long term whenever you get the chance. That's what the big boys like Boston and NY do. I'd also like to see a few AA type trades using some packages of guys like Travis, Pillar, Morales, McKinney, Drury, Alford, Kevin Smith, Biggio and SRF. If used properly I think they could get back a few solid pieces to add to the core. Don't trade guys like Vladdy, Bichette, Jansen, Pearson or Pardinho. Anyone else though should be fair game if they are acquiring an all-star level type of player in return.

[Schad]

We shouldn't be trading for ready-made All-Stars given where we are in our rebuild (namely, at the very beginning), and that's assuming that any of the players named could return such, and that's dubious. I don't know that trading all of the listed players would return a single all-star-level player with years of team control remaining.

[SharoneWright]

I agree. You hope a few of your "B" minor leaguers actually become "B" MLBers. Then, in a few years, when they might have more value, you might entertain swapping out some volume for higher end talent. But only in a few years, when you need to move from 84 wins to 89 wins. No purpose in going from 73 wins to 78 wins, and peaking there.

[dagger]

Yikes

Read on Twitter

[So_Fresh]

Yikes indeed. Must be nice to be a Yankees fan.

Does this mean we may have a chance at Happ? Would be nice to bring him back.

[dagger]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Schad]

That's a bit light on value for Paxton, really. Have to imagine that his injury history is a large part of the reason why, but there are worse things than a guy that puts up 4 fWAR in 140 IP every year.

Yet another reason to target 2021 and beyond, though. The AL East is going to be an exceedingly silly place for the next two seasons.

[Ado05]

Yankee fans are some lucky SOB's.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Black Watch]

Adrian Beltre retires. Would have liked for him to have played one more season and gotten to 3,000 hits, but counting stats are no longer the criteria for Hall Of Fame entry, so his 84 fWAR is more than enough.

One of the best. Don't use the term 'class act' very much, but he certainly was exemplary.

[bartron_44]

We shouldn't be trading for ready-made All-Stars given where we are in our rebuild (namely, at the very beginning), and that's assuming that any of the players named could return such, and that's dubious. I don't know that trading all of the listed players would return a single all-star-level player with years of team control remaining.

I bet you didn't think Lawrie, Barreto, Nolin and Graveman could get us 4 years of Donaldson either...but it did. When your upper level system is full of players that can play in the majors you can find deals with small market teams. You take deals for all-star caliber players with control whenever they are available..

They have players at the MLB level as well as prospects at many levels available to deal. As long as they aren't trading away A level prospects then they should always be fair game. I'm not saying go all-in and empty the cupboards, but part of a rebuild is finding talent via trades. You need to keep thinning the heard at the upper levels of the system every couple years of the guys you don't see ever playing everyday in the AL East. The only guys good enough to ever make the roster should be the A level guys. Then when the time comes to go "all-in", then even some A level guys are made available as well to get them their final pieces that they need "right now" to put them over the top.

This whole "lets take next year to see what the kids have" is total BS to me. If they don't already know who the best players are to move forward with in their own system by now, they should be fired. Cut the slack and move on. Even if they just don't reduce payroll they would have over 50 Million dollars to spend (assuming the projected 112 Million in current obligations is accurate after arbitration.) Then next season they would have another 45 Million (give or take) after Smoak, Morales and Martin come off the books and Tulo's deal drops to 14M. That could be a lot of talent to go with Vladdy by the start of the 2020 season...especially if most of the money is spent via trades and not in FA.

Their system is good, but it isn't deep with A level guys. It is top heavy. If they want to have any kind of team around Vladdy for the first 3 or 4 years in this division they are going to have to look outside of the organization. Especially on the mound and in the outfield.

[Myth11111]

Adrian Beltre retires. Would have liked for him to have played one more season and gotten to 3,000 hits, but counting stats are no longer the criteria for Hall Of Fame entry, so his 84 fWAR is more than enough.

One of the best. Don't use the term 'class act' very much, but he certainly was exemplary.

He has 3166 hits...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3,000_hit_club

[Black Watch]

Adrian Beltre retires. Would have liked for him to have played one more season and gotten to 3,000 hits, but counting stats are no longer the criteria for Hall Of Fame entry, so his 84 fWAR is more than enough.

One of the best. Don't use the term 'class act' very much, but he certainly was exemplary.

He has 3166 hits...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3,000_hit_club

Shoot, I must have confused his hit total with someone else nigh retirement. All the same, good for him. Truly one of the best 3B I'll ever see.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Schad]

Beltre was one of my favourite players; baseball will miss having one of the few players who seemed to get that seasons are long, and you should have fun wherever possible

[Myth11111]

Unless you wanted to touch his head. Nothing fun about that. Lol.