General Blue Jays Thread: 2024 Off-Season

[Cyrus]

Crazy how he wasn't talked about much as prospect (Horwitz), or atleast highly touted. Who else is in the rookie race in the AL?

[Fairview4Life]

Crazy how he wasn't talked about much as prospect (Horwitz), or atleast highly touted. Who else is in the rookie race in the AL?

Odds are here. Apparently Luis Gil is the frontrunner.

https://www.covers.com/mlb/rookie-of-the-year-odds

[Cyrus]

Looks like he'll win, 3.18 ERA, 120 ip pitched, 156 strikeouts, seems like pretty good bet he'll get it, unless he has terrible 4-5 weeks.

[Potential]

Read on Twitter

6 out of 8 in the Shatkins era

[bartron_44]

Im curious what the bullpen ERAs are instead of just runs allowed. Bullpens have been gradually been asked to shoulder more and more innings, so giving up more runs is inevitable.

On a different note, could Nathan Lukes finally win a big league roster spot if he keeps up this tear at the plate he’s been on since he got up to Toronto? He’s been too good for AAA the last 2 years, but injuries have held him back from getting an opportunity in the big leagues. I hope he’s healthy next spring to compete for the LF job. ( Assuming they dont sign a FA) With his approach, he’s the kind of guy they could lead off… at least against RHP.

Lukes-LF
Horwitz-DH
Vladdy-1B
Bo-SS
Springer-RF
Martinez-2B
Barger-3B
Varsho-CF
Kirk-C

Clement, 2nd C, Wagner and Berroa

I like Clement, but I would LOVE him as the 5th infielder who moves around and gives people a day off.

I think Barger and Martinez could both add some much needed pop to the order again, lengthen out the lineup, and provide the youthful energy that we have been loving to watch the last month or so. They are the 2 best power bats the Jays have to promote.

Then they would have Jimenez, Loperfido and Schreck providing depth in AAA.

The more I see these kids play everyday, the more I think the Jays are set up well to be able to keep competing after paying Vlad and Bo.

[JN]

One thing I dislike about this management is that it hangs on to things that aren't working too long. Davis Schneider, for example, is likely toast. I'd send him to Buffalo right now, give him an invite to training camp, but that's it. I'd call up Orelvis Martinez whose suspension is over. (He has a pair of hits so far today.) Between Horwitz, Barger, Martinez and Wagner, there is no place for Davis at 2B, and LF is his only other plausible option and Laporfido is a better choice there among the guys on the MLB roster now, and it's also a position to hunt for an impact bat in free agency.

About a week ago I was saying the same thing to my dad while we were chatting the Jays. There was no reason to keep Schneider up instead of giving AB's to some other development players.

He has proved us wrong -- should enter next year in a better mindset now.

[ItsDanger]

Read on Twitter

6 out of 8 in the Shatkins era

This is skewed by a period in baseball where relievers are used more frequently. But the bullpen has been terrible, no doubt about it.

[Raps in 4]

Damn, I just noticed Matt Chapman quietly amassed 5.0 fWAR/6.8 bWAR this season. He would have been the best player on our team this year.

[JN]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/rules-changes-stats.shtml

Some interesting stuff on the impact of the 2023 rule changes (Pitch Clock, Defensive Shift Widening the Bags a few inches). Was the 3 batter minimum rule before 2023?

Overall the 2023 Rule Changes, have done the following comparing 2022 vs 2024.
1) dramatically reduced game speeds,
2) dramatically increased stolen bases,
3) have had a small positive impact on run production, but none of it is attributable to increased hitting production. (AVG, OPS, Walk Rate all the same

Following up on #3 above, Runs are up by 3.0%... but AVG is the exact same, and OPS is only up 0.8%. That likely means the extra runs come from the 47% increase in stolen bases, at a higher success % as well.

It doesn't appear the pitch clock or the defensive shift rules, has helped or hindered either party (the pitcher or batter) in the one on one confrontation at the plate. AVG, OPS, Walk Rate and K-Rate are basically the exact same in 2022 vs 2024.

Some particulars.

Time of Game:
2022 - 3:03
2024 - 2:36
27 minutes a game shaved is a major win for me, and enough for me to like the rule changes

3:30 + Games
2022 - 10.5%
2024 - 0.3%
Thank You!

Steals per Game
2022 - 0.51
2024 - 0.75 (up 47%)

Stolen Base %
2022 - 75.4%
2024 - 79.0%

Runs Per Game
2022 - 4.28
2024 - 4.41

Batting Avg / OPS
2022 - .243/.706
2024 - .243.712
I assume an expectation of changing the shift rules was that Batting Avg would go up but it hasn't.

Walks per Game / K's Per Game
2022 - 3.06 / 8.40
2024 - 3.07 / 8.47

[bartron_44]

There is nothing baseball can do to make up for seeing 3+ pitchers every night. Especially when 90% of them throw in the upper 90s… or above. What killed hitters was 2 things…

1- teams figuring out that the 3rd time through the order is when most SPs get hurt, and no longer leaving them in there to let that happen. Very few SPs these days are left in to see hitters for a 3rd time on a consistent basis.

2-the depth and stuff in bullpens has gotten exponentially better.

It used to bee that unless you were going to your top 3, you probably weren’t getting better stuff from your bullpen than what your SP has. Now teams are loaded with guys with great stuff, and they get an extra arm to use too. So They have no problem letting their bullpen pitch 3-4 innings every day for 6 months. If guys get tired, they just bring up a couple more.

So not only are hitters facing 95+ basically every night now, they have to see 3-4 different release points, 3-4 different fastballs, likely 5+ breaking balls and 3-4 change up/splitters. Oh, and you get a morning to prepare… go get em!

[bartron_44]

Correction, i guess baseball could lower the number of allowed pitchers during the regular season on the roster. That is probably the easiest and most effective change they could make to favor offense.

[bartron_44]

I dont care if its 3B, SS or 2B. Ernie Clement needs to be an everyday player somewhere next year after the season he has had. He is now up to 3.8 WAR spending most of his time at 3B. But he also has 8 drs in 33 games at SS.

Bo’s career high is only 5! For a team trying to win with pitching and defense, playing Bo at SS has never really made sense. His bat (other than this season) plays pretty much anywhere, so I think they need to think about moving him somewhere else if they want to win as many games as possible.

[Mehar]

I dont care if its 3B, SS or 2B. Ernie Clement needs to be an everyday player somewhere next year after the season he has had. He is now up to 3.8 WAR spending most of his time at 3B. But he also has 8 drs in 33 games at SS.

Bo’s career high is only 5! For a team trying to win with pitching and defense, playing Bo at SS has never really made sense. His bat (other than this season) plays pretty much anywhere, so I think they need to think about moving him somewhere else if they want to win as many games as possible.

It is highly likely that Bo will be traded in the off-season. Given that he has one year left on his contract also, and the rumours of him not being totally happy here and wanting a change of scenery (regardless of what he said to the media this week)- it will be best for both sides if Bo is traded.

I agree with you that Clement should be given an opportunity to be an everyday player in 2025. He also has 4 seasons of Arbitration control left and is making $720,000 this year. He will also be making a fraction of the 17 million Bo will make next year, allowing the team to hopefully spend that money more wisely elsewhere (a middle of the order power bat).

[ItsDanger]

Read on Twitter

[Fairview4Life]

Good for him. I’ll take Loperfido, Bloss and Wagner for a pending free agent, thanks. Wil Wagner in particular has been on a “role” since the trade as well.

[Mehar]

Kikuchi can win every single one of his Starts, lead the Astros to the World Series and be World Series MVP, and it was still a great trade by the Jays to get the prospects they did for a pending free agent.

[Raps in 4]

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That's why Houston traded a king's ransom for him. This was a rare good trade for Shatkins. Both teams got what they wanted.

[SharoneWright]

Lol@ role

[greekman]

management needs to go. how has the batting coach not been replaced yet ? if chapman was re signed last offseason and varsho trade didn't happen and richards, mayza were off the team sooner the team wouldn't have been so bad that kikuchi was let go. schneider got 47 at bats last month and hit 0.064. you know who used to play schneider's position ? gurriel who hit .305 last month.

kikuchi
francis
bassitt
berrios
gausman

instead they keep playing 1-7 rodriguez

[Harry Palmer]

Thoughts on Clase?