2025 Blue Jays Offseason Thread

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Buster Olney on the Biggest Rumors At the Winter Meetings

Just Baseball Media

December 6, 2025

Peter and Jack welcome ESPN’s Buster Olney to break down the biggest rumors at the Winter Meetings, from top free agents to blockbuster trade possibilities and the teams creating the most noise behind the scenes.

Buster shares what executives are saying privately, which clubs are preparing to be aggressive, and which star players could be on the move sooner than expected. A full offseason rumor round-up with one of the most trusted insiders in baseball.

Intro: 0:00

Buster Olney: 3:33

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Here is a summary of this YouTube interview with ESPN senior writer and MLB insider Buster Olney.

Offseason Dynamics and the Labor Situation

• Trade Market Activity: This offseason feels different due to a significantly higher volume of trade discussions compared to free agency.

• Teams Getting Down to Business: Executives are reporting less "posturing" or "dancing" in trade talks.

- Teams realize they need to get work done and are more engaged in direct negotiation (e.g., "Our guy is a B-minus value, your player is a B-plus value, how do we fill the gap?").

• Factors Driving Trade Activity:

- Labor Situation: The ongoing labor situation (impending Collective Bargaining Agreement/potential lockout) is impacting team behavior.

- Anticipated Free Agency Spending: There's an anticipation that less money will be spent in free agency, making trades a preferred way to upgrade and gain cost certainty (knowing the acquired player's salary).

Impact of the Upcoming Labor Dispute (CBA)

• Owner Behavior and Spending: Following an owners' meeting 10 days prior, many teams began signaling they don't have much money to spend.

- Owners are likely hesitant to commit money due to the uncertainty of the 2027 season and how much of it might be played, thereby affecting their behavior.

• General Manager Behavior and Trades: The uncertainty is forcing GMs to be more aggressive in trade talk, especially for players with team control extending into 2027.

- If a team waits until next summer, the player's trade value could be significantly diminished because of the labor uncertainty.

• Trade Targets:

- Players like MacKenzie Gore (Marlins, under team control into 2027) and Steven Kwan (Cleveland Guardians) are likely trade candidates now to maximize their value.

Specific Player Trade Markets

• Steven Kwan: Olney doesn't have specifics, and some believe the Guardians might keep him as they are trying to win.

• MacKenzie Gore: The interest is "wide" due to his profile and relatively inexpensive salary.

- Pitching, Pitching, Pitching is the most common request from teams.

- Potential fits include the San Francisco Giants (not "fishing in the big waters"), Baltimore Orioles (who dislike multi-year deals), and the Houston Astros.

• Tarik Skubal: A highly ranked executive now believes the Tigers will trade him.

- The Tigers must weigh competing for one year in 2026 with Skubal versus receiving 18 years of team control from prospects in return.

- Skubal's value is considered among the highest in baseball (top 5 impact if removed from his team) because he could completely change the outlook for a competing team (e.g., the Orioles).

- The asking price is reportedly incredibly high, and the Tigers should trade him now to maximize value and avoid the risk of him walking away for only draft pick compensation.

• Minnesota Twins' Decision: The decision not to trade players like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, or Byron Buxton is considered "confusing."

- Olney agrees with the sentiment that the "worst place you can be is in the middle" (not competing).

- Joe Ryan is moving closer to free agency in 2026, and holding him risks injury. The Twins' actions are seen as a pushback against the "fire sale" narrative from July, but they should "rip the band-aid off" and focus on rebuilding.

Top-Tier Free Agents and Contract Expectations

• Top-End Players Get Paid: Despite the looming labor issues, the top-end free agents are still going to get their money (citing the recent Dylan Cease signing with the Blue Jays).

• Kyle Tucker:

- He is one of the "biggest fish" in free agency.

- The list of suitors is short (in the $300-$400 million range).

- Toronto Blue Jays appear to be the most aggressive team so far.

- The Philadelphia Phillies are a natural pivot point if Kyle Schwarber leaves.

- The Yankees and Dodgers are not expected to be involved.

- Concern: There is diminished enthusiasm for Tucker compared to projections right after Juan Soto signed, due to his second-half performance and injuries.

- Alternative Strategy: There is an argument for Tucker to take a short-term contract with an opt-out (like Alex Bregman did) to hit free agency next year after the next labor agreement is signed when teams may be more "flush" with money.

• Chicago Cubs and Tucker: The Cubs' historically conservative payroll, which has been in the middle of the rankings despite their market size, suggests they are unlikely to commit to a $350-$400 million contract.

• Starting Pitching Market: Olney expects the starting pitching market to start moving first, with much of the trade activity being built around it.

Kyle Schwarber: The Lynchpin

• Schwarber's Role: Olney believes Kyle Schwarber is the "lynchpin" for the position player market, and Kyle Tucker may have to wait for Schwarber's negotiations to conclude.

• Suitor Interest: The Phillies and the Mets are showing serious interest.

• Clubhouse Impact: Schwarber is one of the few players perceived to make a "tangible difference in clubhouse culture."

- A coach noted, "Every day Kyle Schwarber shows up at the clubhouse, cares about two things: winning and pulling the team closer together."

- He actively engages with teammates to ensure cohesion.

- The Mets could view him as a "human bandage" for their previously uncohesive clubhouse.

- Lineup Protection: Schwarber's high on-base percentage makes him an excellent option for lineup protection (the guy in front) for hitters like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.

Pete Alonso and Market Value

• Alonso's Market Value: Olney suggests Pete Alonso needs the Mets more than the Mets need him.

- Any other team would look at him purely for production, not as the "Polar Bear" or a "legacy player."

- He feels Alonso's value is greater to the Mets than any other team.

• Future with the Mets: If the Mets sign Kyle Schwarber, Olney believes they might move on from Alonso.

• Comparison to Josh Naylor: The recent contract signed by Josh Naylor (a first baseman, $92.5 million, better defender/base runner, good clutch hitter) suggests the market may not highly value a pure power-hitting first baseman.

• Opt-Out Timing: Alonso's decision to discuss opting out of his deal right after the Mets' collapse was seen as strategic but potentially detrimental to his market value.

New York Yankees and Payroll

• Spending Expectations: Olney doesn't think the Yankees will "go crazy" and spend $200 million-plus on a player this winter.

• Hal Steinbrenner's Comments: The owner's recent comments are likely preparing the fan base for the possibility that they won't sign a huge name.

• Bullpen Strategy: They are saving money for the bullpen, a market that is expected to move very slowly due to an oversupply (over 100 unsigned free-agent relievers).

- The Yankees (and other teams) can afford to wait and sign good relievers at favorable prices later in the winter (mid-to-late January).

• Pushing Other Teams: Brian Cashman's continued presence in conversations for top players like Tucker or Bellinger is often a strategy to drive up the cost for rivals like the Red Sox or Mets.

Reliever Market

• Over-Saturation: The abundance of free-agent relievers means the market is expected to work against the players due to supply and demand, favoring teams.

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I was looking into Ponace signing, and man he' really only put it together last year, the 3 years prior in JBL (Japan), he really got tagged around. Then signed last year to KBO, and killed it:

180 innings, 252 strikeouts, era 1.89, no other season overseas was even that close....

Here is another KBO star who may be all familar with in 2025:

134 innings, 137 strikeouts, ERA 2.87....Wanna guess who this is? Our boy Mitch White! 2027 Signing? Time to bring him home?

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Jeff Kent voted to Hall of Fame as Blue Jays head into Winter Meetings - Sportsnet.ca

Seen and heard in the Winter Meetings hallways:

• Having already signed Dylan Cease and reached agreement with Cody Ponce, the Blue Jays arrived in Orlando as one of the off-season’s most active teams and there was intrigue around them after Saturday’s decision to outright Yariel Rodriguez. On the one hand, the move could be viewed as little more than organizational housekeeping, creating additional flexibility on the 40-man roster at a time that’s of tremendous value.

But the Blue Jays would still have been at 39 with Ponce, making some wonder if they needed the extra spot more urgently. They were involved, to some degree, with Emilio Pagan before the veteran closer returned to the Cincinnati Reds, as the back-end relief market appears to be moving. One agent said his sense is that the Blue Jays are currently shopping at the higher-end of the relief market and they’ve been linked to Edwin Diaz, although the three-time all-star would require the type of spend this front office hasn’t made in relievers. One name to consider is Robert Suarez, whom they pursued when he was a free agent three years ago.

• Kyle Tucker’s visit to the Blue Jays’ Player Development Complex last week underlined the club’s approach on the position-player front, as they also remain engaged with incumbent Bo Bichette. Bolstering the pitching staff has been their top priority this winter since they feel they don’t have gaping holes to fill in their lineup, leaving them to seek only clear upgrades. Both, quite obviously, qualify, but worth noting is that if they don’t land either, they can’t simply reallocate the money they would have spent elsewhere, as they’re being viewed as special opportunities.

• Free-agent reliever Nick Sandlin, whom the Blue Jays outrighted last month, has resumed throwing after having bone spurs removed from his right elbow. They were a factor in an injury-marred season during which he appeared in only 19 games, but posted a 2.20 ERA and 1.163 WHIP while earning one save.

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lot of smoke today.....

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Get me Gore man.

Gausman
Yesavage
Cease
Gore
Bieber
Ponce

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Will Tigers deal Skubal? Top 10 MLB trade candidates before winter meetings - USA Today

Dec. 2, 2025, 5:46 a.m. ET

3. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks continue to have operators standing by ready to field your phone calls. They have told anyone and everyone they are willing to listen to offers for their All-Star second baseman, who signed a six-year, $116.5 million deal last spring with $46 million in deferred money. The D-backs want pitching, and lots of it, in return. They spent a franchise-record last winter, missed the playoffs and will open next season without free agents Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly – and ace Corbin Burnes on the injured list for most of the season. They need help, and Marte is their most valuable trade chip. The Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays, who have plenty of pitching, are all on the radar.

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He basically rules out Edwin Diaz

Said “absolutely” to Hoffman being the closer.

Damn it.

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He basically rules out Edwin Diaz

Said “absolutely” to Hoffman being the closer.

Damn it.

Doesn't mean anything, if he says we are in on Closer, then that's leverage for agents.