Hoopstarr wrote:I was just as excited about JP's philosophy as I am now about AA, and the majority of Jays fans felt the same way in 2002 or else they're damn liars. It was just a different time. Boston and New York weren't as far ahead in payroll, Moneyball 1.0 was en vogue, over slot picks weren't the big deal they are now, teams were less protective of assets, the free agent market wasn't as efficient, and the Jays ownership wanted to cut costs. All the dumb management paradigms of a decade ago seem so silly now but they made sense then. Now it's Moneyball 2.0 and all of those things have change, and Rogers is willing to do whatever it takes, which is great. But like I've said earlier, AA will have to be practically perfect and lucky to come out on top of the East.
I was excited about JP coming in, but his moves early on were nothing like what AA is doing now both in terms of potential impact and philosophy. AA is rebuilding by signing or acquiring very young/raw projects with high bust potential (but equally high upsides). Ricciardi was trying to draft advanced college players that would filter up the system at a rapid fire pace. AA's philosophy is far less likely to produce MLB players at a rapid pace but far more likely to produce impact talent if they pan out. That is why I never understood why people would say "look how many draft picks JPR promoted", as if it were an accomplishment to have players reach the Majors rather than actually do something productive when they get there.
Look at it this way: if the Jays had the equivalent of Kelvim Escobar circa 2001 on the current team, would AA use him as a starter or a closer? Considering he is allowing Brandon Morrow to walk 700 batters this season in the hopes of future progress, I'd guess "starter". Ricciardi's first move was to convert Escobar to a reliever in 2002 and trade Koch to Oakland, despite Escobar showing a ton of development as a starter at the end of the 2001 season. Then he tried Hinske at 3B for a few years, before finally conceding that he was not a 3B defensively (ditto Russ Adams). On the flip side, it took AA all of 10 seconds to say he was moving Brett Wallace (a far more hyped prospect than Hinske) to 1B for defensive purposes. It is stuff like that which in hindsight show how little foresight JP actually had in terms of the bigger picture, and how much better AA is at determining talent.
Then again, I thought JP actually improved as a whole from 2006-onwards (free agent signings aside), whereas many think he was better in 2002-05.
AA will have to be damn near perfect and lucky to build a true contender in the East, but the moves he is doing now are a good start. Again, his first draft will really tell the story.
