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I know this team is not supposed to do anything this year; but they do seem to have a certain spark. They win games by outhitting opponents (last night) and by solid pitching (today). At what point can I jump on the bandwagon. I don't expect even a playoff appearance; I just want to be in the hunt for one come September.

With the way the other Toronto teams have been doing I could use some glimmer of hope, even if its a few years off.

sci96krusty wrote:I know this team is not supposed to do anything this year; but they do seem to have a certain spark. They win games by outhitting opponents (last night) and by solid pitching (today). At what point can I jump on the bandwagon. I don't expect even a playoff appearance; I just want to be in the hunt for one come September.

With the way the other Toronto teams have been doing I could use some glimmer of hope, even if its a few years off.

I think a playoff run is still a couple of years off. Their team batting average is nothing to write home about. They are getting it done with the long ball, and that's unlikely to be sustained over 162 games. We're basically through a quarter of the season. I don't expect Jose Bautista to hit 36-38 homers but that's the extrapolation from his start. And I'd be a wild-eyed optimist if I thought Alex Gonzales was going to hit 40 homers. That's his extrapolation. If Lind, Snider and Hill all start hitting for a little more average as well as power, a .500 or slightly better season is plausible, but in the AL East, that's more like progress than contention for anything.

Like I said, I'm not looking for a playoff spot, just not to be mathematically eliminated in August. Last years collaps after such a promising start really knocked the wind out of me.

I do agree with your premise on batting average. Something I noticed over the years is that almost every legitimate playoff team has at least three players batting .300 or higher. We are a good ways away from that milestone.

sci96krusty wrote:Like I said, I'm not looking for a playoff spot, just not to be mathematically eliminated in August. Last years collaps after such a promising start really knocked the wind out of me.

I do agree with your premise on batting average. Something I noticed over the years is that almost every legitimate playoff team has at least three players batting .300 or higher. We are a good ways away from that milestone.

When Lewis plays, we have two guys - him and Wells - hitting just over .300. Just over. Then you fall to one guy in the .270 range (Buck) and everyone else is .255 or lower. It's not so much that we need a pile of guys hitting .300 although it would be nice, but some of those .180 (Overbay) and .220 hitters have to be converted into guys hitting .260, 270, .280, 290.

We'll still be all but mathematically eliminated by August. As of today, we have played 12 games against the East (5-7), 14 against the Central (10-4), and 12 against the West (7-5). Once we start going through the NY/Boston/TB meat-grinder a few more times, that record is going to fall off pretty quickly; I still would be surprised if we finished within 20 games of the division lead. We're also not a top-5 offense despite our 114 OPS+, so there's a correction in the offing there, as well.

Our future could be pretty bright, but it'll take 3-5 years.

When we no longer play in the AL East.

Starting May 31st we play 3x vs Tampa Bay 3x vs New York, 3x @ Tampa Bay. If we come out of there with a good result we could be 1-2 games out and at least making them sweat a bit. There's no way this team is beating the Yankees but if the Rays slow down and play more like last year's team, who knows? There's only so many years the Red Sox are beatable and this is one of them...

Realistically I'd be cool with 80-85 wins though

The team is in re-building mode and they're going about it properly, so I never expected them to be competitive this year. I'd be thrilled if we finished with 85 wins, and I'm expected big things out of our youngster 3-4 years from now.

Schadenfreude wrote:We'll still be all but mathematically eliminated by August. As of today, we have played 12 games against the East (5-7), 14 against the Central (10-4), and 12 against the West (7-5). Once we start going through the NY/Boston/TB meat-grinder a few more times, that record is going to fall off pretty quickly; I still would be surprised if we finished within 20 games of the division lead. We're also not a top-5 offense despite our 114 OPS+, so there's a correction in the offing there, as well.

Our future could be pretty bright, but it'll take 3-5 years.

I'm not so sure it will take that long. I see the makings of an elite pitching staff 1 through 5, and a power-laden line-up. It really all depends on two factors:

1. How quickly the prospects develop (Wallace, Hech, Snider)
2. How well AA can leverage the surplus of strong arms on the farm to fill some holes (3B, C, SS, maybe an outfield slot).

I could see this team being a strong contender in 2012. But hey, it's been a exciting season *this year* so far. Let's enjoy it - anything can happen!

I'm not a firm believer in teams competing for playoff spots or what not with two guys only averaging over .280. The teams on base percentage (OBP) .312 ranks them 25th in the league. Their team batting average .241 ranks them 24th.

Those two numbers right there are what I look for in a competitive team. You have to score 5-6 runs a game regularly, with good to decent pitching to make any sort of run.

Right now, the Jays need to focus on getting on base and making every at bat count. They are not going to keep this power stroke up for much longer so they need to bat smarter at the plate...and for **** sakes start running a little more on the basepaths. Also, the Jays pitching is really up in the air, who knows if this will last.

Look at where all the top teams are mostly..in both cats...right at the top...where's Toronto??

Batting Average Leaders

On Base Percentage

I'm hoping we can finish above the Red Sox. That will be a victory in my books.

jalenrose#5 wrote:I'm not a firm believer in teams competing for playoff spots or what not with two guys only averaging over .280. The teams on base percentage (OBP) .312 ranks them 25th in the league. Their team batting average .241 ranks them 24th.

Those two numbers right there are what I look for in a competitive team. You have to score 5-6 runs a game regularly, with good to decent pitching to make any sort of run.

Right now, the Jays need to focus on getting on base and making every at bat count. They are not going to keep this power stroke up for much longer so they need to bat smarter at the plate...and for **** sakes start running a little more on the basepaths. Also, the Jays pitching is really up in the air, who knows if this will last.

Look at where all the top teams are mostly..in both cats...right at the top...where's Toronto??

That's because a good portion of our lineup consists of cast-offs...our on-base percentage relative to batting average is actually very good, but this group can't and never will hit for average. Buck, Bautista and Gonzalez are all sub-.250 career, with Wells being the only guy above .280 lifetime. Hacking is what they do; it'll work until it doesn't, at which point we'll go back to being the 72-77 win club that everyone expected.

As for stealing bases...who do you have in mind? The only guy on our team who has ever stolen 20 bases is Fred Lewis, and that's really not his game.

You're telling me you don't believe already?! For shame son.

Schadenfreude wrote:That's because a good portion of our lineup consists of cast-offs...our on-base percentage relative to batting average is actually very good, but this group can't and never will hit for average. Buck, Bautista and Gonzalez are all sub-.250 career, with Wells being the only guy above .280 lifetime. Hacking is what they do; it'll work until it doesn't, at which point we'll go back to being the 72-77 win club that everyone expected.

That's why I think Buck, Bautista and Gonzalez aren't in our long term, or even mid term plans. As soon as some of our young talent proves itself in the minors, I see those guys being replaced.

I think if this recent surge from Wells isn't just a aberration, he could go back to being a .300+ everyday hitter. Do Lind and Hill have the potential to also carry those averages?

I say you keep those guys around unless they fall off hard. At least until the trade deadline. Those nice shiny numbers they're putting up might be enough to fleece some team into giving us a decent prospect or two. They're all on 1 year contracts too right? might even get some nice supplemental picks if they can keep even half of their production for the rest of the season.

Right. Now.


Anything is possible if we keep playing with heart and determination like we do right now, which is converting into winning lots of close games.

sci96krusty wrote:That's why I think Buck, Bautista and Gonzalez aren't in our long term, or even mid term plans. As soon as some of our young talent proves itself in the minors, I see those guys being replaced.

They definitely aren't...they're just here as stopgaps. Buck/Gonzalez could potentially fetch compensation, though; Buck is somewhat unlikely given his lack of PAs last year and the fact that he might take arbitration, but I would expect them to pick up the option on Gonzalez, and with the bar being so low for shortstops, he should be at least type-B after next year.

I think if this recent surge from Wells isn't just a aberration, he could go back to being a .300+ everyday hitter. Do Lind and Hill have the potential to also carry those averages?

All three of them are really ~.280 hitters, but batting average tends to be variable enough that they could hit .300 every once in a while (or .260 every once in a while). For all his struggles, Hill is doing a good job of getting on base, and Wells is drawing walks at a pace better than his career average. Those are hopeful signs.

Anything is possible if we keep playing with heart and determination like we do right now, which is converting into winning lots of close games.

It isn't heart and determination that's carrying us, it's an equal measure of bad opposition, good luck, and torrid starts from unlikely sources. I don't want to be pouring cold water on optimism, but neither do I want to read threads in two months bashing our players when they come down to earth because they aren't showing the 'heart' that they did earlier in the year.

Is it possible that because the league is so centered on OBP and preventing walks now, that Cito's free swinging philosophy is actually taking advantage of the trend? Logically if pitchers are throwing more balls in the strike zone now because of how much walk prevention is a part of the game, then a team full of hackers like us should benefit by the extra balls in the strike zone, no? lol

Dr Mufasa wrote:Is it possible that because the league is so centered on OBP and preventing walks now, that Cito's free swinging philosophy is actually taking advantage of the trend? Logically if pitchers are throwing more balls in the strike zone now because of how much walk prevention is a part of the game, then a team full of hackers like us should benefit by the extra balls in the strike zone, no? lol

No clue, but I suspect that it's in large part because we haven't faced many good pitchers, and thus our swing-happy tendencies have been rewarded.

Entering today, we had:

- The highest out-of-zone swing rate in the majors (31.1%);
- The second-highest swing rate on pitches in the zone (68.3%);
- The highest swing rate overall (48.6%);
- The second-worst contact rate on pitches out of the zone (59.5%);
- The third-worst contact rate on pitches in the zone (85.8%);
- The second-worst contact rate overall (85.8%);
- The third-highest first-pitch strike percentage (60.1%).


That's great against guys who either miss the plate by a mile or hang pitches (we've seen an awful lot of the latter), but there are a lot of "one run -- solo HR -- five hits, 13 strikeouts" nights in our future once we start seeing pitchers that can hit their spots.

Still hellishly fun to watch, though.

Dr Mufasa wrote:Is it possible that because the league is so centered on OBP and preventing walks now, that Cito's free swinging philosophy is actually taking advantage of the trend? Logically if pitchers are throwing more balls in the strike zone now because of how much walk prevention is a part of the game, then a team full of hackers like us should benefit by the extra balls in the strike zone, no? lol

It is an interesting theory, but I wouldn't guess so. I'm not sure that the emphasis for pitchers has changes much. Pitchers have always been told not to give up walks. The emphasis on OBP was more a change for batters, with GMs valuing guys who know how to get on base more.

Plus, Cito is far from the only coach out there who hasn't taken to the lessons of Moneyball. I haven't checked; are the White Sox also mashing at an unprecedented pace?