RealGM

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 12:55 am**

Just wondering whether adding Roy Oswalt would be a sound move on the part of the Blue Jays? Still with many question marks regarding their rotation (will Morrow control his stuff better, the health of Zep, Tallet, Litsch, McGowan etc, too many young potential arms not enough proven talent), the Jays could use the consistancy Oswalt brings.

I think adding him could be the shot in the arms the Jays need, not only does it give them another 1-2 type starter, but it also gives them a consistant arm that rarely walks guys, almost in the mold of Shaun Marcum. Unfrotunately he has a no trade clause and needs to agree on where to go. Good for the Jays though, they are one of the highest scoring teams in the league, which could attract Oswalt who sees some of the least run support out there.

What can he fetch for the Astros??..

I was thinking 2 top end prospects...what will the Jays give up? One of Brett Cecil/Zach Stewart/Henderson Alvarez along with one of David Cooper/JP Arencibia/Chad Jenkins or a high prospect and a roster player of need.

A rotation that includes Marcum/Oswalt/Romero/Morrow/Litsch(Cecil) seems ideal to me and also could put us in the top 10 of the MLB.

Thoughts??

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:03 am**

We're rebuilding...the last thing we need to do is to trade top-end prospects for a 32 year old career National League pitcher.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:12 am**

Yeah I'm a little hesistant to go after good NL pitchers because of the Jake Peavy effect. I just looked at his contract and he has one year left after 2010 at like 16 million for 2011.

This is for those fans who think we should go after it. We're 6th best according to the power rankings..question is do we add pitching or hitting or just stay with the lineups we have.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:19 am**

jalenrose#5 wrote:
This is for those fans who think we should go after it. We're 6th best according to the power rankings..question is do we add pitching or hitting or just stay with the lineups we have.

For the fans who think we should go for it? What fans are those?

We were in the exact same position last year. Once we enter the meat of our schedule we will fall back down to Earth. This isn't a competing team.

I'm sorry, but that is just a terrible idea. Why trade Cecil when he has looked great in all but one start this year?

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:23 am**

Schadenfreude wrote:We're rebuilding...the last thing we need to do is to trade top-end prospects for a 32 year old career National League pitcher.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:25 am**

-MetA4- wrote:For the fans who think we should go for it? What fans are those?

Seemingly a lot of people from what I've been reading on different Jays forums/blogs over the last week or so. Pretty crazy, but I expect they are the fans that won't be watching this team by August.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:34 am**

Randle McMurphy wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:For the fans who think we should go for it? What fans are those?

Seemingly a lot of people from what I've been reading on different Jays forums/blogs over the last week or so. Pretty crazy, but I expect they are the fans that won't be watching this team by August.

We've only played 12 games against the AL East (everyone else has played 18+) and we're only 5-7 in those 12 games. We are 2-7 in the games against Boston and Tampa. Once we hit the big series against the Yankees and Rays we will fall apart.

Not only that, but even if we were "for real", this would be a terrible year to "go for it". The Rays are probably the best team in the league and should win the East by a few games. The Yankees are very good. Boston will eventually start winning again.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 1:47 am**

Randle McMurphy wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:For the fans who think we should go for it? What fans are those?

Seemingly a lot of people from what I've been reading on different Jays forums/blogs over the last week or so. Pretty crazy, but I expect they are the fans that won't be watching this team by August.

Yep...Tim Brown kinda sucks as a writer, but his Power Rankings sums it up nicely:

Jays’ early schedule so soft Charmin in negotiations for April and May naming rights.

We've played teams that are currently above .500 in just 16 out of 43 games thus far. We have a losing record in those games, and our schedule is backloaded to such a degree that even our current pace isn't close to sufficient.

To wit, this is what we have to look forward to in August and September:

Aug 2-4: @NY, three games.
Aug 6-8: vs. TB, three games.
Aug 10-12: vs. Bos, three games.
Aug 13-15: @LAA, three games.
Aug 16-18: @Oak, three games.
Aug 20-22, @Bos, three games.
Aug 23-25: vs. NY, three games.
Aug 26-28: vs. Det, four games.
Aug 30-Sept 1: @TB, three games.
Sept 3-5: @NY, three games.
Sept 6-9: vs. Tex, four games.
Sept 10-12: vs. TB, three games.

That's 38 consecutive games where the worst teams we'll play are the A's and Angels, both of which are around .500. And to make the playoffs we wouldn't just have to survive that...we'd have to cruise through it, probably winning 22-25 of them. Making the playoffs this year is pure fantasy, I'm afraid.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 3:51 am**

Well I was just looking at options..that's all..

Maybe a Morrow, Cooper and Emaus for Oswalt deal is decent too who knows...but the reality is, the Red Sox and Yanks may snatch him up before we even have a chance. And yeah, I'm not the only one who wants another starter on this team...

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=322284

Read the your call section, not only is about 95% of the people wanting us to get him before the Yanks and Red Sox, but they want to see us improve.

What I'm saying is sure, we're blessed with an easy schedule, but if a reasonable deal is on the table to improve our pitching, who's to say we can't sustain this run and possibly make the playoffs.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 4:05 am**

jalenrose#5 wrote:
Maybe a Morrow, Cooper and Emaus for Oswalt deal is decent too who knows...but the reality is, the Red Sox and Yanks may snatch him up before we even have a chance. And yeah, I'm not the only one who wants another starter on this team...

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=322284

Read the your call section, not only is about 95% of the people wanting us to get him before the Yanks and Red Sox, but they want to see us improve.

From the looks of things, 95% of those people eat their milk with a fork.

What I'm saying is sure, we're blessed with an easy schedule, but if a reasonable deal is on the table to improve our pitching, who's to say we can't sustain this run and possibly make the playoffs.

Every conceivable measure is to say that. We're talking about the longest of long shots, the type of season that would lead to a film version with Kevin Costner as Buck Martinez, Denzel Washington as Cito, and a scruffy Matt Damon as Shaun Marcum in the most blatant display of Oscar-mining the world has ever seen...and that's even if we were swept in the Division Series. We're talking a 100 foot tall statue of Alex Anthopolous, based on the Colossus of Rhodes, towering over the 401, its massive bronze balls blocking truck traffic. We're talking an investigation into possible game-fixing by the Commissioner's office, as it would seem the most rational explanation for such a mediocre team making the playoffs over two or three of the top-5 teams in baseball.

It just ain't happening.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 4:33 am**

jalenrose#5 wrote:
Read the your call section, not only is about 95% of the people wanting us to get him before the Yanks and Red Sox, but they want to see us improve.

I seriously doubt TSN has many knowledgeable baseball fans. I'm sure this is the same group of Leafs fans that want to see the Leafs trade for every big-name, old star when they win 3 games in a row ("we're making a push!)

What I'm saying is sure, we're blessed with an easy schedule, but if a reasonable deal is on the table to improve our pitching, who's to say we can't sustain this run and possibly make the playoffs.

The run isn't sustainable; not when the Rays are primed as the best team in the league and the Yankees look strong. We're not getting a wild-card.

Secondly; you want to "improve pitching" by adding an old, fading player who has no longterm future with this team. I'm sorry, but that is a horrible decision. It would honestly equal the Leafs trading for guys like Leech and Owen Nolan.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 4:42 am**

jalenrose#5 wrote:Well I was just looking at options..that's all..

Maybe a Morrow, Cooper and Emaus for Oswalt deal is decent too who knows...but the reality is, the Red Sox and Yanks may snatch him up before we even have a chance. And yeah, I'm not the only one who wants another starter on this team...

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=322284

Read the your call section, not only is about 95% of the people wanting us to get him before the Yanks and Red Sox, but they want to see us improve.

What I'm saying is sure, we're blessed with an easy schedule, but if a reasonable deal is on the table to improve our pitching, who's to say we can't sustain this run and possibly make the playoffs.

To explain this another way:

At this point in his career, Oswalt is probably a 4 WAR pitcher. Given that it is a quarter of the way through the season, that gives him a value of 3 wins above replacement left this season. And provided that we're not trading any of our current starters other than Eveland for him, I think it's fair to say that the starts he is replacing would come in around replacement level.

So for Oswalt to have any effect on the playoffs, you need to think that the team as it is currently composed will finish within 3 wins of whoever end up in the wildcard. Which means you need to think that this is about a 92 win team in the AL east right now.

We might be a 92 win team in a couple other divisions, but we sure aren't in this one.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 4:49 am**

That might even understate the case...no team has won the AL Wild Card with less than 94 wins since 2002, and the threshold has gone into triple-digits before. The Yanks (four back of the Rays) are on pace for 100 right now, despite their injury woes; it's quite conceivable that we'd need to be a 95+ win team without Oswalt to make it worthwhile to get him.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 5:12 am**

jalenrose#5 wrote:Well I was just looking at options..that's all..

Maybe a Morrow, Cooper and Emaus for Oswalt deal is decent too who knows...but the reality is, the Red Sox and Yanks may snatch him up before we even have a chance. And yeah, I'm not the only one who wants another starter on this team...

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=322284

Read the your call section, not only is about 95% of the people wanting us to get him before the Yanks and Red Sox, but they want to see us improve.

What I'm saying is sure, we're blessed with an easy schedule, but if a reasonable deal is on the table to improve our pitching, who's to say we can't sustain this run and possibly make the playoffs.

This is why I never read the comment section on TSN for any story.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 5:17 am**

-MetA4- wrote:Secondly; you want to "improve pitching" by adding an old, fading player who has no longterm future with this team. I'm sorry, but that is a horrible decision. It would honestly equal the Leafs trading for guys like Leech and Owen Nolan.

Except those Leafs teams were actually locks to make the playoffs...and the Jays...

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 6:13 am**

LOL @ Brett Cecil, Stewart, Alvarez being top end prospect. They're average prospects at best. It's gonna take at least one of Drabek and Wallace plus few more decent prospects to get it done, and is it really worth it?

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 6:15 am**

Schadenfreude wrote:That might even understate the case...no team has won the AL Wild Card with less than 94 wins since 2002, and the threshold has gone into triple-digits before. The Yanks (four back of the Rays) are on pace for 100 right now, despite their injury woes; it's quite conceivable that we'd need to be a 95+ win team without Oswalt to make it worthwhile to get him.

While I expect the wild card winner will end up around there, if we were to win 92 games, I think it's unlikely that both the Yanks and Rays win 100, unless you think Boston wins 70.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 12:23 pm**

As mentioned already, the Jays are rebuilding. Adding Oswalt is not going to make this a playoff team. Hell, adding Halladay won't make this a playoff team.

AA has a good thing going right now. The team is performing above their expectations and the farm system is looking better than recent years. It will be a LONG process to be as good as the Rays/Yanks/Red Sox. Oswalt is not going to close the gap any further. Give it a few years and if/when the Jays are showing signs of being "one piece away" from legit contending, then go out and add a pitcher for prospects. Not now.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 2:03 pm**

We're rebuilding, and our strength on the farm is pitching prospects. That last thing we should be doing is trading for an established, high-priced arm.

I think Romero, Marcum, and Cecil will be firmly established in the rotation by the end of this year. You figure Drabek will be here either in September or next year. So that's 4 spots taken with I'd argue well above average SP talent. After that there are a lot of guys that could filIf the five spot, with the most likely at this point being Czep.

If the Jays are looking to make a trade, it should be for one or more positional prospects.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2010 3:11 pm**

Schadenfreude wrote:We're rebuilding...the last thing we need to do is to trade top-end prospects for a 32 year old career National League pitcher.

Enough said.

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