RealGM

Hey guys, what are your thoughts on the best starting rotation in baseball, and how do the blue jays stack up against them. Here's my top teams:

San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
St.Louis Cardinals

For me: Tampa, San Fran, St. Louis, San Diego. SD has a good rotation, but they get overrated a little based upon their home park; their numbers are solid away from Petco, but not spectacular, and all three of STL/SD/SF play in fairly weak-hitting divisions, while Tampa runs up against three of the top six teams in runs scored on a regular basis.

Can't forget the Yankees and even the Red Sox.

I wanted to say the Jays (1st in the AL and 4th in the majors in xFIP, and that's with almost 2 months of Dana Eveland holding the numbers back), but I have to go with the Yankees (right there with the league leaders even with Vazquez and Sabathia underperforming).

I would rank the top 4 like this:
Yankees (Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Pettitte, Vazquez) - (3.68 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 4.10 xFIP)
Jays (Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Morrow, Litsch) - (4.17 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.08 xFIP)
Cardinals (Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia, Penny/Ottavino, Lohse) - (3.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.78 xFIP)
Rays (Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann, Davis) - (3.25 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.25 xFIP)

The 5th spot would come out of a group of teams (Rockies, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox).

The Jays numbers have been very strong, but I can't put the rotation in that top group yet and I think you gotta have SF in there. Lincecum and Cain is a dominant twosome. Sanchez and Zito are having very strong years, and Wellemeyer sucks. I know I'd trade the Jays rotation for theirs in a heartbeat.

I'd also have Oak in the conversation before the Cubs and Col too, but I haven't gone over to check fip numbers in case some are having fluky seasons so far.

What I really like about the TB rotation is that because they're deep and also not top dominant, when teams play them they never feel like they're getting an easier game, it's a tough battle every time out. I just like the psychological implications I think that has.

Only other thing is if Bos can get some of their big tickets back on track, they immediately jump to or next to the very top. If you get the bet of Lackey and Beckett with Lester and Buchholz and functional 5ths from DiceK or Wake, that's a crazy rotation, but it certainly hasn't lived up to it so far. If you were judging the relative talent of the best 5th starters, I have no doubt the top 3 are in the AL East

satyr9 wrote:The Jays numbers have been very strong, but I can't put the rotation in that top group yet and I think you gotta have SF in there. Lincecum and Cain is a dominant twosome. Sanchez and Zito are having very strong years, and Wellemeyer sucks. I know I'd trade the Jays rotation for theirs in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't. Cain, Sanchez, and especially Zito would get hit in a park like the Rogers Centre and against competition in the AL East. Their stats are all inflated by AT&T Park (being flyball pitchers).

I'd also have Oak in the conversation before the Cubs and Col too, but I haven't gone over to check fip numbers in case some are having fluky seasons so far.

I would as well...but their ace Brett Anderson just went down with an elbow injury and there's no telling when he'll be back. Without him there, their rotation is significantly weakened.

The Jays also led the AL in xFIP in 2008 and 2009 (even when facing 3 of the top offenses in baseball regularly) so it isn't a new phenomenon for the Jays to have great pitching. The telling thing is that Roy Halladay is no longer here and only Shaun Marcum (and soon Jesse Litsch) remain from the 2008 rotation.

Fair enough on all points. I know his numbers, especially the deeper ones, don't speak to it, but every time I've seen Cain pitch, I've thought he looked great. Now, I don't see him very often at all, but I've always been a pretty big fan. That obviously increases my evaluation of their staff significantly compared to someone who sees him as a flyball pitcher being helped by his park.

As for the Jays, I just need more time with this group. I had such low expectations, because of the question marks surrounding each guy to start the season that I just haven't recovered from seeing them all work out almost as well as could be expected (maybe Morrow could be a little better, but that's it). Like I said in the optimism thread, I'm trying to come around, but I've still got some work to do.

I'm partial to the plight of the AL East teams. The Jays rotation would mow down the NL.

I've seen Cain pitch often as well, and to me, the stats don't lie about him. He benefits greatly from his ballpark due to his flyball tendencies (it's ridiculously hard to hit a HR in that park...the fact that Bonds hit so many is still amazing to me). I would take Romero, Marcum, and Cecil over him, especially with Cain's larger contract (and being under control for only 2 more years). No question for me.

Just a small point, I did say I don't see him that often, which may be why I have a heightened opinion of him. Teams out west just don't get too much attention from me, 'cause I very rarely watch late games.

So when the numbers tell a different story than my opinion and other fans, who I know watch more baseball than I do, agree with the numbers, I'm perfectly willing to say my opinion is just that, but he's one of probably a half dozen or so who I find a way to forgive for their shortcomings for no particular reason. For instance, I still have a totally irrational belief that Cameron Maybin is going to figure it all out.

I also was making my judgments with zero reference to salary. I know it's probably the most important factor if we're talking in practicalities, but if we're just saying which staffs we think are best overall, for me it's nice to occasionally put the money aside and just look at the player's themselves.

satyr9 wrote:Just a small point, I did say I don't see him that often, which may be why I have a heightened opinion of him. Teams out west just don't get too much attention from me, 'cause I very rarely watch late games.

I watch quite a few Dodgers game so I've gotten to see Cain many times in his career.

For instance, I still have a totally irrational belief that Cameron Maybin is going to figure it all out.

Funny you'd say that...I was just reading this article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... on-maybin/

I also was making my judgments with zero reference to salary. I know it's probably the most important factor if we're talking in practicalities, but if we're just saying which staffs we think are best overall, for me it's nice to occasionally put the money aside and just look at the player's themselves.

Even without the salary/service time being a factor, I'd still take those 3.

Tampa
SF
Yanks
Boston
Jays cause I'm bias..
Iffy about Philly. Can't forget about the doc, hamels and moyer.