5th Starters- Talet, Litch, Eveland this year

[baulderdash77]

This group is 5-13, 6.17 ERA, 1.62 WHIP this year. Not to mention the toll it took on our bullpen becasuse of the extra innings they had to absorb.

If we had a relable starter that was even 9-9 this year we'd be right on top of Boston.

This team isn't as far from contention as some people would make us out to be. It's been a good season in that we've given our young guys some time in the minors and we've found some gems. But I think we're really only 3 guys from being a playoff contender- 5th starter, closer, 3B.

[Hummus]

replace one of those guys with Dustin McGowan's starts (as the second starter), and we are in Wild Card chase for sure. It's a shame, nobody expected the Jays to be even this good though, so there are no regrets this season (except maybe not making more deals at the deadline).

[Ong_dynasty]

This group is 5-13, 6.17 ERA, 1.62 WHIP this year. Not to mention the toll it took on our bullpen becasuse of the extra innings they had to absorb.

If we had a relable starter that was even 9-9 this year we'd be right on top of Boston.

This team isn't as far from contention as some people would make us out to be. It's been a good season in that we've given our young guys some time in the minors and we've found some gems. But I think we're really only 3 guys from being a playoff contender- 5th starter, closer, 3B.

IMAGINE IF WE KEPT ROY ...
we'd surely be in contention.!

[baulderdash77]

I didn't want to say it, but it's true

[Avenger]

Even if we kept Roy and everything else was the same, the Jays would still be 9 games out of the division and 8 games out of the wildcard, not worth losing him for nothing in the offseason.

[Lateral Quicks]

No, with a solid fifth starter we are fighting Boston for 3rd, and 5-6 games back of the wild-card with 55 games to go. That's a lot to make up with quality teams like Tampa Bay and New York ahead of you.

Still, there is reason to be optimistic about our chances next year if:

1. Tampa Bay AND New York aren't as good as this year
2. Snider is healthy for a full year
3. Bautista doesn't fall off (he is looking increasingly legit)
4. Hill and Lind return to their career averages or better (already picking it up a bit now)
5. Morrow gets better (been more consistent from the first month of the year)
6. Solid 5th starter (lots of good options - Mills/Rzep/Drabek)
7. Arencibia takes over from where Buck left off (should do in the power department, average is more uncertain)
8. AA finds an above average 1B/DH masher and/or prospect
9. The bullpen is competent.

I think 2012 is the target year for contention, but I can definitely see us having an outside shot next year. Heck, some die hards are saying we still have a chance this year. With so many games left against teams ahead of us, I suppose it's possible (though unlikely). It should be an exciting couple of years!

[Hoopstarr]

If we kept Roy, we'd just have some insane run of bad luck or something and multiple pitchers would go down for the year and we'd be way under our Pythag. (Yes, I'm saying Doc is cursed). This year has been relatively injury-free and we're "only" two games below the Pythag. With Youkilis out now, we might even catch Boston.

[Randle McMurphy]

A better 5th starter would have won us a few more games, but that wouldn't be nearly enough to get us in any kind of playoff race. It's really the team's .313 OBP (4th worst in the majors) that's kept the Jays from being elite. With our power, even a league average OBP would have made a huge difference.

This team isn't as far from contention as some people would make us out to be. It's been a good season in that we've given our young guys some time in the minors and we've found some gems. But I think we're really only 3 guys from being a playoff contender- 5th starter, closer, 3B.

I've been thinking about when this team might possibly be able to contend, and I really don't see why they couldn't take a shot at it next year. I mean, obviously they shouldn't go out and sign a bunch of veteran players at the expense of this youth moment, but filling a few holes and adding depth could go a long way.

They've been one of the best teams in baseball this year (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/7 ... #storyjump, 3rd order schedule-adjusted standings: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php), but have again found difficulty with the teams in their division.

If the pitching remains as good as it was this year (and really, guys like Romero, Morrow, and Cecil should continue developing at their ages) and Hill/Lind bounce back from being two of the worst hitters in the AL, the Jays have a chance to be right up there next year.

[hyper316]

No, with a solid fifth starter we are fighting Boston for 3rd, and 5-6 games back of the wild-card with 55 games to go. That's a lot to make up with quality teams like Tampa Bay and New York ahead of you.

Still, there is reason to be optimistic about our chances next year if:

1. Tampa Bay AND New York aren't as good as this year
2. Snider is healthy for a full year
3. Bautista doesn't fall off (he is looking increasingly legit)
4. Hill and Lind return to their career averages or better (already picking it up a bit now)
5. Morrow gets better (been more consistent from the first month of the year)
6. Solid 5th starter (lots of good options - Mills/Rzep/Drabek)
7. Arencibia takes over from where Buck left off (should do in the power department, average is more uncertain)
8. AA finds an above average 1B/DH masher and/or prospect
9. The bullpen is competent.

I think 2012 is the target year for contention, but I can definitely see us having an outside shot next year. Heck, some die hards are saying we still have a chance this year. With so many games left against teams ahead of us, I suppose it's possible (though unlikely). It should be an exciting couple of years!

good points, this jays team is becoming more fun to watch

[LBJSeizedMyID]

This group is 5-13, 6.17 ERA, 1.62 WHIP this year. Not to mention the toll it took on our bullpen becasuse of the extra innings they had to absorb.

If we had a relable starter that was even 9-9 this year we'd be right on top of Boston.

This team isn't as far from contention as some people would make us out to be. It's been a good season in that we've given our young guys some time in the minors and we've found some gems. But I think we're really only 3 guys from being a playoff contender- 5th starter, closer, 3B.

Same mistake JP made. We're still a ways. Build your farm, then start making deals. You make your deals now, your farm system is depleted. Then what happens when we find out we're not as good as we thought?

[Relentless88]

I think we'll be fine with the 5th starter role for next year. Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Morrow are set from 1-4. We've got a few options for that 5th starter. Firstly, McGowan may be fully healthy, and able to contribute by next season. He obviously won't be as good as he was before injury, but as a 5th starter you don't need someone that great. Second, Drabek or Stewart may be ready for an MLB promotion. Third, we've got Rzep and Mills who've shown promise and can battle it out for that 5th slot.

[Lateral Quicks]

I don't think Rzep and Mills deserve to be in the minors any longer. They've paid their dues, and are good enough to pitch in the majors. Going into next year, though, there just isn't enough room for them with the Jays. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see AA trade some pitching talent in the offseason to clear the logjam. If he doesn't, then the value of those assets begins to diminish.

You also have Drabek, who I'm not sure you want to expose to the launching pad that is the PCL/Las Vegas. And he's done enough in AA to merit a promotion. So really, if we include Litsch, that's 8 guys that should be in the rotation next year. If MgGowan is healthy, it's 9. And there's even more high-quality pitching depth behind these guys (Stewart, Alvarez, etc.) that's a ways away.

[baulderdash77]

I think we'll see Rzep, Mills, Stewart & Drabek battle it out for the 5th starter spot. We're going to need potentially 2 spots in the bullpen next year with some of our pending vacancies. Maybe one of them goes there next year.

[Randle McMurphy]

On the off chance that McGowan ever returns, it likely won't be as a starter.

Rzep should really have a spot in the rotation right now, and I anticipate it won't be too long until he gets it.

[U_Mad]

A better 5th starter would have won us a few more games, but that wouldn't be nearly enough to get us in any kind of playoff race. It's really the team's .313 OBP (4th worst in the majors) that's kept the Jays from being elite. With our power, even a league average OBP would have made a huge difference.

This team isn't as far from contention as some people would make us out to be. It's been a good season in that we've given our young guys some time in the minors and we've found some gems. But I think we're really only 3 guys from being a playoff contender- 5th starter, closer, 3B.

I've been thinking about when this team might possibly be able to contend, and I really don't see why they couldn't take a shot at it next year. I mean, obviously they shouldn't go out and sign a bunch of veteran players at the expense of this youth moment, but filling a few holes and adding depth could go a long way.

They've been one of the best teams in baseball this year (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/7 ... #storyjump, 3rd order schedule-adjusted standings: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php), but have again found difficulty with the teams in their division.

If the pitching remains as good as it was this year (and really, guys like Romero, Morrow, and Cecil should continue developing at their ages) and Hill/Lind bounce back from being two of the worst hitters in the AL, the Jays have a chance to be right up there next year.

LMAO we're 4th and we still dont even make the playoffs..god I hate the AL East

[MGD24]

replace one of those guys with Dustin McGowan's starts (as the second starter), and we are in Wild Card chase for sure.

sniff...i miss you Dusty!

[Penny1993]

On the off chance that McGowan ever returns, it likely won't be as a starter.

Imagine if he returns as our closer! A lot like Smoltz did for the Braves. That would be kinda amazing now wouldn't it...

[satyr9]

No, with a solid fifth starter we are fighting Boston for 3rd, and 5-6 games back of the wild-card with 55 games to go. That's a lot to make up with quality teams like Tampa Bay and New York ahead of you.

Still, there is reason to be optimistic about our chances next year if:

1. Tampa Bay AND New York aren't as good as this year
2. Snider is healthy for a full year
3. Bautista doesn't fall off (he is looking increasingly legit)
4. Hill and Lind return to their career averages or better (already picking it up a bit now)
5. Morrow gets better (been more consistent from the first month of the year)
6. Solid 5th starter (lots of good options - Mills/Rzep/Drabek)
7. Arencibia takes over from where Buck left off (should do in the power department, average is more uncertain)
8. AA finds an above average 1B/DH masher and/or prospect
9. The bullpen is competent.

I think 2012 is the target year for contention, but I can definitely see us having an outside shot next year. Heck, some die hards are saying we still have a chance this year. With so many games left against teams ahead of us, I suppose it's possible (though unlikely). It should be an exciting couple of years!

Let me start by saying, I doubt the Jays end up contending next year, but when they're going good like this it's hard not to start dreaming. To me the whole key is TB and BOS. Forget a NYY regression, just too much money and if they're struggling they'll add the pieces they need. TB, on the other hand, has money concerns this offseason for their offense. Their pitching will stay great, but if Crawford and/or Pena go, that's a pretty big hole. BOS doesn't need to get worse, just stay the same, but they could easily replace TB as a dominant #2. Especially since if TB loses guys they're probably going to either of the other ALeast monsters. Still, if BOS stays roughly similar and TB regresses, that just might give the Jays a shot to play meaningful games in Aug. and Sept.

A consistent 5th would be nice too. Top 4 looks very very strong, but the offense is just too weird to bank on for the future. I hope they prove me wrong though.

[tsherkin]

We're not contending for anything next year; we're as close as we are because of all the injuries that the Red Sox have had to deal with, IMO. But that doesn't make it any less fun!

[Randle McMurphy]

We're not contending for anything next year;we're as close as we are because of all the injuries that the Red Sox have had to deal with, IMO. But that doesn't make it any less fun!

No, the Jays are legitimately one of the best teams in baseball this year.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php

When adjusting for schedule, the Jays have been the 5th best team in baseball this year (though they are very close to overtaking TAM and MIN).

The Jays could conceivably contend as early as next year if they choose to.