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Sweep the Sawx and things get really interesting. Who woulda thunk this season would've been this interesting?

Please re-post when we're within 3 games of the wildcard spot, in about a month or so. In other words, don't get your hopes up buddy. It will take nothing short of a miracle to even play a meaningful game in September.

the season has been a success even without making it to playoffs. it brought new hope for years to come. just watch for entertaining games and dont think about wildcard race

chocolateSensi wrote:Please re-post when we're within 3 games of the wildcard spot, in about a month or so. In other words, don't get your hopes up buddy. It will take nothing short of a miracle to even play a meaningful game in September.

I would be more than ecstatic if this happens.
For me its like being in the first round of the playoffs.

But at the moment, I think all we should be focusing on is catching the Sox. then take it from there.!

8.5 games might as well be 80.5 games... it means nothing at this point.

It's great to see them narrowing the gap, however, if there looking at capping IP's for our starters they are going to have to mix up the rotation soon, will they not?

I hope they stick to the long-term plan and don't jeopardize any arms to injury for the sake of a long shot pennant race.

The Jays have to catch two teams that are better than them (Tampa and Boston), and 8+ games with more than one team to catch is a lot. Way too much ground to make up. Regardless, I would rather the Jays finish strong and limit the innings of their starters down the stretch. That is more important in the long run. Morrow's career high in IP is 124.2 and Cecil's is 142.1. Marcum is coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Basically the only starter I would feel comfortable going over 200 IP (or even 180 IP) this season is Romero.

Don't get me wrong, if the Jays perform a miracle and make it, I'll be thrilled, but it is completely unrealistic at this point. Just finish the year strong and hope to build on the excitement next season.

Well we're about to drop 2 out of 3 to the Sox so I don't have any hope.

8.5 games is a pretty huge margin when you have to catch 3 really good teams (TAM, BOS, MIN).

Just for arguments sake, let's say Tampa finishes off the season winning games at their current rate. With 50 games remaining they'll win about 30 and be 98-64. Meaning we'd have to win 76% of our remaining games in order to have more wins than the Rays. We're also chasing 2 other teams that are ahead of us in the standings. Even if the teams in front of us fail to maintain their current winning percentage, it'll be very difficult to win the wild card.

Is it possible that we can make the playoffs? Yes. We still have 6 games against Tampa and 9 games against Boston. Is it likely? Not really.

It is fun playing the spoiler though!

I caught a bit of the Sox Yanks game yesterday on YES. Their fan poll asked which team would be the biggest spoiler down the stretch. Overwhelming majority said the Jays.

Red Sox are beaten up pretty bad and the Rays are struggling, so eh we COULD make up some ground. BUT GAH DON'T JINX US!!!! Let's just keep flying under the radar and keep winning games...

Randle McMurphy wrote:8.5 games is a pretty huge margin when you have to catch 3 really good teams (TAM, BOS, MIN).

+1.895

It's not like they are second in either the Division race or Wild Card race. They are 4th and 5th respectively. Many things must go right for the Jays, and wrong for a number of teams.

We're not going to make a run at the wildcard, we're just too far back and the teams ahead of us are just way better than us.

5-1 against TB in remaining and 6-3 or better against BOS and things might get interesting if they were beating everyone else too. I'd put the over/under on meaningful games in Sept. at 1-2%, but that's 0.98-1.99% more than I would've had it before they swept the Rays over the weekend.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... s_odds.php

Jays have a 4.3% shot at the playoffs according to this, down from 4.9% yesterday.

Randle McMurphy wrote:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Jays have a 4.3% shot at the playoffs according to this, down from 4.9% yesterday.

And that isn't taking into account that we're likely to shut down at least a couple of our starters pretty soon...a one in 25 shot at the playoffs isn't cranking their innings up.

Schadenfreude wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Jays have a 4.3% shot at the playoffs according to this, down from 4.9% yesterday.

And that isn't taking into account that we're likely to shut down at least a couple of our starters pretty soon...a one in 25 shot at the playoffs isn't cranking their innings up.

Hasn't the plan for the entire season been to rest each of them periodically and not to shut down starters in September?

IIRC, that was their justification for sitting Morrow for 10 days last month.

I thought we were going to the 6 man rotation. If we get on one of those typical late winning streaks, it might get interesting. I was counting on Niemann and Davis from Tampa being out for the season. We would've had a chance then.

Randle McMurphy wrote:Hasn't the plan for the entire season been to rest each of them periodically and not to shut down starters in September?

IIRC, that was their justification for sitting Morrow for 10 days last month.

It was, yeah. However, save for Romero they're getting fairly close to their innings limits already...Marcum's at 131 and probably shouldn't pitch more than 25-30 more innings (so, four starts) returning from surgery, Morrow's already over his total from last year and thus is 20-25 innings (3-4 starts) from his limit, and Cecil has a bit more wiggle room owing to his injury.