Let's commiserate and beat a dead horse.

[satyr9]

So I was looking at standings over the last 5 years and messing around with a spreadsheet and it's positively criminal how consistently good, but not nearly good enough the Jays have been.

In the last 5 years, there are 12 teams that haven't made the playoffs once. Of those 12, there are only 5 that haven't even sniffed a playoff chase in September: Toronto, Kansas City, Washington, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.

Toronto: 87-75, 83-79, 86-76, 75-87, 60-54 = 0.513
Kansas City: 62-100, 69-93, 75-87, 65-97, 47-68 = 0.417
Washington: 71-91, 73-89, 59-103, 59-103, 49-66 = 0.408
Baltimore: 70-92, 69-93, 68-94, 64-98, 40-75 = 0.408
Pittsburgh: 67-95, 68-94, 67-95, 62-100, 39-75 = 0.398

The last number is the winning percentage over the last 5 years. Talk about an unfair group to be put in based on that track record.

Of the remaining 7 teams, 3 have had pretty good shots at least once, although two of them were far enough out it would've been fun for the optimists and hopeless for the pessimists (think 5ish games back to start September):

Florida: 78-84, 71-91, 84-78, 87-75, 57-56 = 0.495
Houston: 82-80, 73-89, 86-76, 74-88, 48-65 = 0.477
Seattle: 78-84, 88-74, 61-101, 85-77, 44-71 = 0.467

The last 4 are in the heart of it this year and have had at least one decent run at it in the past as well (you might quibble with Texas on the previous run part):
Atlanta: 79-83, 84-78, 72-90, 86-76, 66-48 = .508
Texas: 80-82, 75-87, 79-8, 87-75, 65-48 = 0.507
San Francisco: 76-86, 71-91, 72-90, 88-74, 66-50 = 0.488
Cincinnati: 80-82, 72-90, 74-88, 78-84, 64-51 = 0.482

You'll notice the Jays beat every single one of these teams in winning percentage for the last 5 years, yet are down in the gutter with hopeless dregs of the bottom as one of 5 to not even sniff the playoffs.

Forget the futility since the early 90's, the only other team that has comes remotely close the Jays for doing fairly well without any hope or joy over the last 5 years are the Marlins and since they have no fans and a WS ring this decade, they can go **** themselves. All I want is some playoff intensity we're-going-for-it-this-year style action in September and October. Just one time - soon. This team has been good enough to deserve that much. I know there's not really much to say about this, but I was annoyed looking at these numbers so I thought I'd make you all a little more miserable today.

edited for ATL

[augustine]

Nice work. The only way I see to solve this problem is to ensure that Boston and New York start missing the playoffs because the East is too good, then something will change. I am encouraged by Boston having a great record but being on the outside this year. I can only hope that Tampa and Toronto continue to improve so that the big markets start complaining.

On a side note, it is heartening to remember that during the glory years, there were two divisions, and one pennant winner in each, which resulted in some teams get 95+ wins and not making the playoffs. This isn't a new problem, we just used to be a lot better.

[Avenger]

most baseball people seem to think additional wildcards are almost a lock in the next CBA, Boston missing the playoffs this year should help too. More wildcards seems to be the best and only acceptable solution for us, Rogers and Beeston don't want a balanced schedule or a division realignment because of the $ those 18 home games against Boston and New York bring.

The wildcards were first approved in 1993 with a 27-1 vote with George Bush being the only dissenter and its a system that has worked out pretty well. Lets hope there's enough smart people in that room this time around.

[satyr9]

Just a note, I missed one. I had started out going back to 2005, but I decided to count this year instead. That put Hou in, 'cause they made it in 2005 and not since, but I missed that the same is true of ATL, although they look in pretty good shape this year, so they belong in the bottom group with TEX, SF, and CIN. Still for completionist sake:

ATL: 79-83, 84-78, 72-90, 86-76, 66-48 = .508

[tsherkin]

I hate that we play in a division with the two biggest spenders and the three best teams in baseball. If we played in the Central...

[Brew666]

Additional wild cards are nice and give the Jays a chance of making the playoffs but will there be anything in the new CBA addressing the problem of parity in the league?

Additional wild card sports virtually guarantee the Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs every year for the fact that their payroll is going to be 'x' amount bigger than anyone else's in the AL.

Better than the current system but doesn't solve the problem IMO.

[victor page]

I agree with Brew666 - there is a huge competitive problem in baseball and adding wildcards is only a superficial remedy (so more teams can say they are in playoff race). I actually liked it better without wild cards - making the playoffs actually meant something.

The current system is (Please Use More Appropriate Word) and everyone knows it - the Yankees can spend like 5x what the Royals do and you could play 1000 seasons and the Royals will never make the playoffs. (the Jays? we have to rebuild for 7 years and everything fall into place to make hopefully 2-3 runs at a wild card from 2011-2013).

By supporting teams like the Jays, sometimes I fear that we're perpetuating this cycle. If no one showed up at the Dome and Kauffman Stadium etc... over the last 10 years, maybe MLB would have instituted a salary cap already. But we do show up at the Dome, and I did buy a Jays hat the other day, and I watch on TV, etc... so I put money in everyone's pocket and this crappy MLB era continues.

[Avenger]

Baseball doesn't have a problem with parity though, unlike the NBA where the last 25 championships have been won by 8 teams, 8 different teams have won the world series this decade alone. Payroll is irrelevant once you get to the post season because the nature of baseball doesn't allow better teams to completely dominate. For **** sake the Marlins won the world series with a payroll that is smaller than Alex Rodriguez's annual salary. The only teams that get hurt with the current system are the Blue Jays, Orioles and the Rays.

[Kaizen]

Never compare basketball to any other sport. Basketball is the only sport where one player can carry a team which is why so few teams have ever won the championship. Basketball is by far the hardest sport to win in unless you get a Bryant, Jordan, or Duncan in the draft.

I actually agree with you that the AL East is the only division that has a competitive disadvantage. I wish we could switch divisions with a team in the NL East or AL Central.

[Michael Bradley]

Keep things the way they are. I would rather the Jays make the playoffs by finally topping New York and Boston (and Tampa now) rather than being handed a spot because of additional playoff teams being added.

Baseball is the only sport left where making the playoffs even means anything. Let the NBA have their .500 teams make the playoffs.

[Schad]

That's the funny thing...as broken as the system is, I don't support a hard cap. I do however support a dollar-for-dollar luxury tax set at 1.5x the league median, bumping to 2:1 tax:payroll at 2x the median, with that money distributed to teams below the threshold. Going by Cot's numbers, last year that would've meant a tax level of $120m and a 'supertax' level of $160m, with six teams paying in $194m ($8.1m per untaxed team), $137m of that coming from the Yankees.

That $8.1m itself won't cause teams to loosen up the purse strings, but by making it unprofitable to spend absolutely absurd amounts, it'll bring the top end back down enough that while the playing field won't be level, it will be competitive.

[Geddy]

*beats away*


that was some nice work satyr, and when you put it that way it really does make you realize that the teams the Jays have put out there haven't been all that bad.

[Hoopstarr]

Keep things the way they are. I would rather the Jays make the playoffs by finally topping New York and Boston (and Tampa now) rather than being handed a spot because of additional playoff teams being added.

Baseball is the only sport left where making the playoffs even means anything. Let the NBA have their .500 teams make the playoffs.

I can see what you're saying. Now that we're actually committed to scouting and spending right along with NY/Boston (right Rogers?!), I kinda want to beat them at their game too.

I disagree, however, that more playoff teams would be "handing" us a playoff spot. I like the idea of 6 playoff spots with the top 2 teams deservingly getting a 1st round bye. That's fair to everyone. It would still be comparatively hard to make the playoffs, just not ridiculously harder than it needs to be. The NFL has a 6 team playoff so why can't baseball? In return for the expanded playoff, the teams would have to give back by reducing the regular season by a few games.

[Schad]

*beats away*


that was some nice work satyr, and when you put it that way it really does make you realize that the teams the Jays have put out there haven't been all that bad.

And that doesn't even take into consideration schedule-neutralized performance...we're sixth in third-order wins this year (behind only the Yanks, Rays, Sox, Twins and Braves), yet we've been all but eliminated for two months.

On the playoff structure, I don't care if it's unfair...keep it. As much as I want to see the Jays succeed, I also like baseball being baseball, and as such have no desire to see the league turned upside down for our benefit.

[ItsDanger]

Only 1 of the other AL teams doesnt have a sub .500 record against the East. Detroit is .500. That shows you how superior the division is within the AL.

[satyr9]

I don't think MLB has any incentive to increase the competitive balance when it comes to BOS and NYY. They don't win the WS every year and it's great for their ratings to have them consistently in the playoffs. That's not really fair, but the 30 owners will take it over the threat of losing tons and tons of TV dollars.

IMO expanded playoffs is a must, simply because all other professional sports offer more spots and Baseball plays the most games so way too many teams are out of contention with far too many games left to play every year. That's a bad mix for developing markets outside the largest centres. That and there isn't a financial downside to more playoffs so I have a hard time figuring out why they wouldn't.

Personally I'd be all for a better tax system over a hard cap anyway, but it needs new rules on paying out as much as stricter levels with higher penalties (this is true of all sports). I think revenue sharing needs to start being awarded preferntially to teams like this year's Jays rather than teams like this year's Pirates (and wasn't there an article early in the year that had someone like KC or PIT being one of the most profitable in MLB last year 'cause they were just pocketing revenue sharing?).

If a team proves they can start to build a good team, then the league should contribute to growing it rather than propping up the bottom end teams. If you're a .350 team, you don't need money for next year anyway, you need draft picks, which you already get (to help this part they should create a hard capped draft for the first 3-5 rounds to avoid some of the stupidity where the top 5 talents go to the best teams picking late). Give the Jays and Marlins types more incentives to get incrementally better and give the Pirates and Orioles types a very good reason not to tank as much as possible, but if they do they still get a different kind of reward. I want it to be financially hurtful to be the worst team in your league, but I would keep the upside down drafting, at least for Baseball where the draft is truly developmental, to help make up for it.

Using tax and revenue sharing to create league that would've let the Expo's retain talent rather than constantly cycle after building a superb system, or something that would've let Beane keep his favourites in Oakland for another contract or two rather than constantly cycling every 5-6 years at best sounds like paradise to me. How about something that would make it almost impossible that a team like TB would be about to lost one of their best players, to a division rival no less, because they can't afford to keep him? If I'm a Rays fan and that happens this offseason, it would make me want to cry.

My only thought that could help would be to tie revenue sharing to away game attendance, assuming there's a correlation between winning percentage and road attendance. The specifics would be a bitch to work out, but I like the potential of that idea 'cause it'd work on a couple levels and reward revenue creation: tougher competition would mean increased attendance and winning more would likewise increase it. So for having tougher games you'd get a bit more and for winning more games you get more. Do both and you might just get enough to build enough to take on the top guys. Not even sure if it's my idea or if I already read it somewhere else and don't remember anymore, but the more I think of it, the more I think it'd have a shot to really help make the league entertaining and fair.

Okay, that turned into a whole essay. I guess I had a lot to say.

[victor page]

You guys are over-thinking it - MLB just needs a hard cap with an allowance for teams keeping their own free agents (like the NBA). It should work better in baseball because most ballplayers aren't dicks (i.e. like Vince Carter and sign a max deal then stop trying and force a trade). Luxury taxes never work - the rich teams just eat the loss. Further, fans get frustrated when their team won't go over the tax limit. Its just cleaner to have a hard cap (including a minimum)>

I hate the argument that "the Marlins won 2 world series so everything is fine blablabla ...". Those who use that argument are incredibly stupid. The fact is that the Yankees have been in contention for a playoff spot for going on 15 years in a row. The Braves won the NL East like 10 times in a row. Atlanta won so much that fans stop selling out playoff games.

MLB either needs a cap or tiered divisions like European soccer with relegation etc...

[Brinbe]

Nah, disagree, they absolutely don't need a cap. The problem with constant also-rans (like the Royals or the Pirates) has more to do with terrible management and ownership than the Yanks spending money.

Anyway, have always thought some extra WC spots was the answer, but I have a feeling that's a tough sell with all the screaming traditionalists in this sport. Hell, they can't even get replay right in 2010.

[victor page]

No it's the money, mismanagement is a secondary issue. No amount of management could put a team with a tiny payroll into contention consistently. With good management you might be able to make brief forays into contention, like the Marlins have done (and the As, and now the Rays) but you'll never compete with Boston and NY year after year.

[Schad]

The Braves won the NL East like 10 times in a row. Atlanta won so much that fans stop selling out playoff games.

Atlanta won the division that many times because they have excellent management, not because they outspent everyone. From 2000-2010, they averaged a little over $90m payroll; the Mets averaged closer to $115m; the Phillies were cheap through 2003, and have outspent the Braves by a fair margin since.

In baseball, with 40-man rosters, an NBA-style cap won't work the way you desire...it'll turn into a clusterf*ck like the NHL instead.